January 15, 2026 International Signing Period

[Matt_Winkelman]

The bonus is about what you are buying the player out of. Gessner was a high schooler who had a commitment to Tulane so it is equivalent of drafted HSer buying the out of college. For Korean player you are buying them out of being a first round pick in the KBO draft. It also sounds like the Pirates and Yankees were in so they outbid teams it wasn’t like a LA kid with a year’s old deal. The Korean market is also strange in that the signing period is essentially now and not the early deals of other LA players. I get what you are saying, but you are also comparing apples to oranges as you are talking about signing a high schooler currently pitching vs their peers or a teenager who you agreed with at 14 or 15 or a guy who has popped up in workouts. Your argument is essentially don’t participate in the Korean market. And really all this cost them is a guy they have been actively shopping since last November

[andyb]

I understand the transactional nature of this. I am only suggesting that we could potentially have acquired more prospect value with our $1.2 million. And remember we are competing with small market teams with larger bonus pools even accounting for the extra $500K.

As for Korea, yes it might be too expensive to participate in the 17-year-old international market. I'd rather sign a 25-year-old free agent as we have seen that those types of Asian free agents are often better values than MLB free agents who tend to be older and more expensive. I think I would prefer the Phillies to acquire the pool space as early as possible and plan how to use it. And do things like trade for competitive balance picks to bolster our overall prospect depth.

Overall I am still a fan of course because every dollar invested in the international free agent pool is probably worth $10 invested in older free agents if not more (understanding the different markets). Draft and international dollars are artificially limited by pool size so the potential WAR return can be great.

[fish]

I am only suggesting that we could potentially have acquired more prospect value with our $1.2 million.

Maybe if they had allocated it a year or two ago, But not likely at this point in the period. I imagine it’s pretty common for teams to keep some dry powder in case an opportunity comes up later in the signing period like this…or if they cut ties with someone they otherwise planned to sign. When the pickings slim out it’s probably a little easier for a kid like this to squeeze some more money out of bidders trying to get good talent from their last dollars.

[owaistabish]

Phillies have just about $636k left per Francys Romero's article today (paywalled)

[owaistabish]

https://x.com/wilberdata/status/2049215671096205524?s=46&t=BSaiWYyV3UpEz8IoQTGVJQ

Phillies scout in Mexico

[andyb]

Kevin Alvarado among the releases from the DSL this year after just signing. We could very well be trending to one DSL team. Elias Marrero who was a $700K signing last year also released after hitting .175 in his only season.

[allentown]

Elias Marrero who was a $700K signing last year also released after hitting .175 in his only season.

Our second highest bonus last year. He was described as an offensive-oriented SS. Cut before he turned 19. I hope the brass and scouting staff do some analysis and soul searching on how this turned south so quickly. Unlike many of our Latino position player prospects who have failed, he is not under-sized. Is this a serious injury issue. His bonus could have yielded 2 or 3 top LA pitching prospects, a category of prospect we are far more successful with.

[fish]

Our second highest bonus last year. He was described as an offensive-oriented SS. Cut before he turned 19. I hope the brass and scouting staff do some analysis and soul searching on how this turned south so quickly

He didn’t pass the eye test for starters- didn’t have present day skills or look like he had the body to grow into them, like one of those situations scouts sign a guy and play dev wonders “what did they see in him?”

[allentown]

Okay, so bad scouting. A scout can't sign a guy from LA for $700K. Higher ups need to approve it. I realize that most signees, even those over a half million $ bonus won't become successful major league players, but for a guy getting almost $3/4 mill to bomb out after a short Dominican season seems extreme. Wouldn't Sal have to sign off and probably someone back in Philly? Coming on the heels of Yhoswar, it just increases my concern for our LA operation's competence and honesty.

[fish]

Okay, so bad scouting. A scout can't sign a guy from LA for $700K. Higher ups need to approve it. I realize that most signees,

The 2025 class as a whole was pretty bad for the Phillies and it was easy not to be excited for it from the start. Villoria was the most promising and they dealt him already. It was like a gap year where no one was in charge the year or two prior when it was time line up deals, or they backed out of a big signing that was never reported. Fortunately this years class and future classes look more like expectations- though at some point owaistabish posted here that they backed out of the deal with next years top signing but I haven’t seen that news anywhere else.

[Matt_Winkelman]

It was bad at the top, but Romeli Espinosa, Anderson Araujo, and Ramon Marquez are nice, and there are a couple of guys that interest me, but the top of the class wasn’t great and Campbell wasn’t exactly a great get for signing money.

[allentown]

It was like a gap year where no one was in charge the year or two prior when it was time line up deals,

Sorry, can't buy that as a reasonable excuse. Dombrowski joined Phillies in December 2020. That's plenty of time to make sure we have competent international, especially LA, staff in place to evaluate prospects and make any needed pre-agreements for our top picks in January 2025 draft. That's 5 years of time. That is not the mark of a well-run organization vying for as much post-season success for as many years as possible, as Middleton is, and is laying out enough $ to achieve that goal.

To Matt: good value among lower bonus guys with awful choices among highest bonus guys is indicative some good scouting by at least one scout and awful decision makiing by the higher ups who authorize the big bonuses. Is that Sal?

[fish]

Sorry, can't buy that as a reasonable excuse. Dombrowski joined Phillies in December 2020.

No excuse, just searching for a reason why their effort was so poor.

[zambonir]

Honestly I don't care if they got one guy wrong, that's not even that much money (half as much as Dylan Moore just cost them) but where your criticism is more applicable is that it took DD's front office a full three years to change up the international department (that's when Chung came on and Sal was moved to advisor. Presumably anyone they signed in 2025 still dates back to 2023 or before).

And Klentak did the same thing, basically abdicating the first year and keeping Almaraz.

I think in both cases, as much as we love Middleton having more money and more aggression than the ownership group he didn't control, he was still too deferential to the old ways and the old baseball men. I think Dombrowski has actually exceeded expectations in terms of improving the bigger picture while trying to win now, but that's only because the expectations reasonably could have been zero.

[fish]

Honestly I don't care if they got one guy wrong, that's not even that much money

It’s not about lost money, it’s about lost opportunity- like not hitting on any second or third round picks. System is hurting- bottom 5 worst.

[zambonir]

well, I'm not saying it was good. but like you said, nobody was running the show, or the old regime was. So the bigger problem is systemic and cultural.

[andyb]

We really need to hit on the higher bonus guys. While it is great that our scouts have found some low budget gems, that is not a strategy. Every team does it and there really is no evidence we do it better than others. The variance in outcome of 16 year olds just means there are more success stories out there.

This is why Renteria is really important. We have not had a top tier talent like him in ages. I guess Ortiz qualifies and that was a huge mistake. Caba and Bergolla are potential successes though not quite the level of the market that Renteria represents. Like in the draft, the top 5 first round talents are much more likely success stories than the picks in the middle of the first round.

It is time that we start hitting on 4-6 guys a year internationally in the same way we hope to get 8-10 prospects out of the draft (usually the top 5 rounds, a few overslot guys, and a few late surprises often big arms to refine).

[allentown]

well, I'm not saying it was good. but like you said, nobody was running the show, or the old regime was. So the bigger problem is systemic and cultural.

No, the problems with the 2025 international signing period cannot be blamed on the old regime. DD was in charge at the end of 2020. Any hires by previous regimes were deliberately left in place by DD. He could have hired a new group of scouts, international management, and DR training and development staff well in advance of the pre-commitments for the January 15 2025 international signing period. The need was desperate -- everyone in the industry knew how abysmal and expensive were the Phillies efforts to find and sign and develop international, especially LA, talent. The need was urgent and DD sat on his thumbs and Middleton did not insist on the appropriate urgency of addressing the problem. Now, we are counting on the problem being solved with the 2026 class. That's not the start of DD's rein -- it may be the last international signing period of his tenure. Opportunity lost! And, also no, this isn't just one high-priced extreme failure of a relatively high bonus signing, which you profess not to care about. This is the continuation of the abject failure of the organization to produce significant MLB position players from LA -- the source of 30% of major league position players. The Phillies current problems are directly traceable to the failure to fix the LA organization. I focused on this particular signing because of how unusual it is for an organizations' second-highest bonus signing to be so bad that he is released after just one DR season.

[dicemen99]

We really need to hit on the higher bonus guys. While it is great that our scouts have found some low budget gems, that is not a strategy. Every team does it and there really is no evidence we do it better than others. The variance in outcome of 16 year olds just means there are more success stories out there.

This is why Renteria is really important. We have not had a top tier talent like him in ages. I guess Ortiz qualifies and that was a huge mistake. Caba and Bergolla are potential successes though not quite the level of the market that Renteria represents. Like in the draft, the top 5 first round talents are much more likely success stories than the picks in the middle of the first round.

It is time that we start hitting on 4-6 guys a year internationally in the same way we hope to get 8-10 prospects out of the draft (usually the top 5 rounds, a few overslot guys, and a few late surprises often big arms to refine).

I know it’s not quite what you mean as you are judging our ability to identify Latin prospects for big money signings, but the success of Caba and Bergolla is already complete in my mind, and not potential.

Bergolla turned into Banks for the Phillies. Despite the slow start this year and the nature of middle relievers, I would consider that a moderate success for a $2M signing.

Caba turned into Luzardo, which is an absolute HR for a $4M signing.

No matter what those guys turn into for other teams, that is what value they brought to the Phils. In my mind, very successful.

[andyb]

I am not evaluating a player's talent based on when we traded them. It is much more whether they were worth the bonus. We have a history of million plus bonus guys underperforming. The best chance of signing a star though comes at the top of the market. So we SHOULD be evaluated based on whether guys we sign to big bonuses actually succeed. Marrero was a failure for a $700K investment. That is a mid level bonus but still relatively important.

I was not a Bergolla fan when we traded him so I was OK with that. He is basically on a really difficult Luis Arraez path (with a bit better defense). That path of high average/low power guys is littered with failure. But he may be the rare guy who can hit .300 with little power and few walks that can make it. It is just a tough path to take.