I officially hate this Phillies team

[andyb]

Zach would also have let us use Suarez or Luzardo as a short relief weapon if we so chose. Our starters have been good, but one big difference with the Dodgers is that they have secondary starters that are usable in relief.

We have 3 guys (Nola, Buehler, Walker) who are really not usable in medium or high leverage relief situations. Buehler (6.6) and Walker (6.3) have 2 of the lowest K rates around and Nola has never relieved. Leverage relievers need to be able to strike people out.

[zambonir]

I am not saying no difference. But our two starters pitched well enough to win, the Phillies found a way to lose 8 of Wheeler's 24 starts, and several of his playoff starts in past years as well. Of course his entire poor and abbreviated second half was injury-affected. Bigger impact might be that we would not have been playing the Dodgers in this round had he been healthy.

And for sure it would have made Game 3 and any subsequent games much easier to manage, including the pen.

[EDmuch]

I agree that the most serious problem with this lineup is the lack of a RH power hitter. They never really replaced Hoskins. As Z said, when all of your power is 2 LH home run hitters and an outstanding left handed pitcher wipes them out, there is not much more to fall back on.
To me the most obvious management change would be a new hitting coach.

[andyb]

Bohm never really developed much power either. I am actually hopeful Kemp will give us some cheap right-handed power for a few years. I just wish he could field.

[zambonir]

And yet Long's two best (and oldest) students are the batting champion and a likely top three MVP. And he is often credited with helping Schwarber and Harper hit LHP, even if they didn't last night.

Sometimes you just need a new voice, but the offense hit and run-produced at a high level all year. I sometimes it really is just the players. They knew what they had to do but just couldn't do it. The only thing that makes Long worse than he was three years ago (besides now Rhys) is the passage of time for Nick and JT and Bryce.

[xogfog]

I hate writing about next season before this season comes to a close, but here's what I think they should do.

1. Resign Schwarber, 4 year deal
2. Move Castellanos, even if you have to eat some money
3. Resign Realmuto, 2 or 3 year deal
4. Sign Alonso if he opts out to play first base, move Harper back to RF, yes the defense will be a bit wore, but Alonso is the RH bat we need.
5. Bring up Crawford.
6. Turner starts the season at SS, but moves to LF when Miller is ready to come up. Marsh could then be moved at the deadline.
7. Let Saurez walk, but make a qualifying offer.
8. Resign Bader if he's willing to be a rotational player subbing sometimes for Marsh and subbing sometimes for Crawford.
9. The rotation would be Wheeler, Sanchez, Nola, Luzardo and Walker until hopefully Painter comes up and Walker goes to the bullpen.
10. As for the bullpen, bring Alverado back so you have three power arms with him, Kerkering and Duran on the back end and find another RH bullpen middle inning arm to compliment Strahm, and Banks.

[Austinfan]

Hard to be worse than Casty, and a lot cheaper.
At least he has upside, Casty only has downside at this point, his second half suggests stick a fork in him.

[Austinfan]

That will cost an additional $40-50M, and what do you do with Luzardo, let him wallk after next season?
Schwarber had a great season, but at his age and a DH, do you really want to pay him big money on a 4 year deal?
Realmuto can't catch more than 100-110 games, faded down the stretch and this will just get worse.
Harper is turning into a plus fielding 1B, he was below average in RF 3 years ago, now he'd be a LH Casty out there.
As much as Bader brought this year, they do not need to pay real money to another free swinger.

A key problem is somehow they have no legitimate RP prospects - the easiest position to draft.
Not closers, just 6-7th inning guys better than an aging Strahm or Robertson.

[zambonir]

I tried to start the actual hot stove thread (though I agree it is a bummer to do this).

They do need a bat but they do not need another DH. Alonso is no longer good enough at 1B which might also be why the Mets walk on him this time. But I will believe that when I see it.

I do give Kyle the money. JT too within reason. But there's no Alonso or Tucker once they do. They're not broke though. Just gotta find the right guy in that Kepler/Bader price point without it being them (certainly not Kepler).

Too bad we have no position for Rhys either because he'd be cheap.

[jimbomill]

I hate writing about next season before this season comes to a close, but here's what I think they should do.

I love Schwarbs, but without his doing an about-face against the Dodgers, I'm not going 4 years.
I think I keep Suarez and resign JT.

[zambonir]

I'm not using the playoffs, let alone two or three games, as the measuring stick for a regular deal. Aaron Judge was terrible in the playoffs for four seasons before his most recent contract. Ohtani (putting aside his pitching) has a .311 OPS in this series and it was .385 in the WS last year.

We still need that bat or a different bat, far more than we need a pitcher who couldn't even seize the #2 or #3 playoff rotation spot (with the rotation a man down already!) for reasons that still aren't clear. "More comfortable in the bullpen" still doesn't cut if for me considering he didn't pitch yet. If it's not a nagging injury it really must be performance (opposing OPS over .800 in September with 12 runs in his last 14 innings). Not that Nola was better which makes it even more curious, though at this point just trying to chase a few RHBs out of the line-up might be a worthy gamble. But do they even let Nola face Ohtani and Freeman twice?

[andyb]

Hard to be worse than Casty, and a lot cheaper.

Kemp is cheaper but he was a 0.0 WAR player this year and could easily be negative if the league has figured him out offensively. Kemp still needs to get better to be a viable major leaguer. He is not better than Bohm now and could easily be worse than Castellanos. The bar is not super high to clear, but to date he has not cleared it and it is probably 50-50 at best that be becomes a consistent 1.5-2.0 WAR player. Remember he is older so certain things he does (like his speed) are likely to regress rather than improve.

[Austinfan]

Kemp has a lot of upside b/c of limited PA, so he has a chance to grow with more experience.
Think the value of experience (PA) is simply seeing more offspeed pitches and arm angles.
Given his speed he should develop into a mediocre OF, which is >> Casty.
Don't see him as a starter unless he makes a big jump, but Casty is probably negative WAR going forward.
Casty only has value as a platoon DH at this point in his career.

[zambonir]

If they can offload even 25% of Casty's salary they will. But I'm not sure that has anything to do with Kemp, unless Crawford is our CF and it's Marsh/Kemp in LF. Kemp can't play RF. And he can't really replace Bohm either, unless it is with a LHB platoon partner (which is nobody in the org currently).

Nick will probably hit again, even against RHP, but it would be best for him to, say, DH for the Marlins or Twins (and then get traded in July).

[andyb]

Most people in baseball would consider Kemp 50-50 to be positive WAR going forward too. You dismiss the general assessments of him. He has holes in his swing and we really don't know if he can adapt to better pitching yet. And he really looks like he won't ever have much defensive value anywhere because he does not have great hands.

[flyers19rw]

Kemp has a 30% K rate to go with a 5% BB one and a .298 OBP. Add to that a poor glove no matter which position he takes in the field. I’d pump the brakes on penciling him in the lineup going forward. I know that the chic thing among some Phillies fans is to be down on Alec Bohm but there really is no comparison between the two. Bohm is a far superior player.

[zambonir]

I only move on from Bohm if they can do better, or have a viable short-term platoon while using that $10 million on another key piece. Kemp is not in that picture as anything other than the weak platoon guy.

But he hits LHP and was far better in his second call-up. He'll likely replace Wilson on the bench for a year or two, whether all the time or with the options. And Sosa might not be here in 2027, Kemp could still be a back-up 3B/2B (but not SS). Needs to show a lot more to stick in LF (even platoon) or play regularly anywhere.

[Austinfan]

With Miller up at some point next year SS is no longer an issue, especially if they keep Stott.
With Turner, Miller and maybe Stott, a utility IF is more valuable if he can play 1B, 3B and LF.
They may let Bohm play out the string and then QO him and take the compensation, with Miller up in 2026 and Escobar maybe in 2027.

[bigegypt0417]

Miller has been very good for about 2 months...let's hit the brakes on his promotion.

[zambonir]

Ah, what could go wrong? Let's give him an Opening Day job and a multi-year guaranteed contract.