The only thing that has changed is he might have a better chance of getting what he wants, but the overall market is still going to be depressed, and another team would have to give up a draft pick. If they'd signed him in the off-season it would have pushed them into the tax, thereby costing them even more money, so if they end up having to kick in a bit more cash to outbid another team, it's still a wash (but still better than being in the tax, from their perspective).
No reason to think they won't pay him, and if they meet his ceiling (Goldschmidt money rather than Posey money) they could still sign him before he hits the open market. Once they are at those years (5) and AAV (26$ million) I could still see him doing a Cliff Lee and taking less to stay if another team is offering $27, but the Phillies would probably also match that. A sixth year is what might be hard to swallow.