GDT 8/23/17 Miami Marlins (J Nicolino) @ Philadelphia Phillies (M Leiter Jr.)

[andyb]

The presence of Hernandez is enough reason to delay Kingery because it is not clear Kingery is better. So I think they want that 40-man spot for the rule 5 draft this fall but it does not mean they still won't think about trading Hernandez and starting Kingery next year over the winter.

With Crawford it is more obvious that he is an upgrade. I don't think they would be rushing either Crawford or Kingery if they started then next Spring. Each has now had AAA success. At some point they need to play in the majors and if they are really good I think they get locked up to long term contracts like Herrera anyway before arbitration and free agency is a large concern.

[Austinfan]

It won't hurt Kingery or Crawford to spend another half year in AAA, and it won't hurt the team to let them go through growing pains in the majors in 2018.
Point is Klentak can be patient, because he doesn't have to make a move this winter, so no reason to force a deal. Negotiate from a position of strength.

I'd like to see a 2018 rotation in Lehigh of Eflin, Pivetta, Anderson, Eshelman, Thompson, Taveras with Kilome moving up as one of them are promoted.
ML rotation of Nola, Eickhoff, Velasquez, Lively, Leiter, with a veteran innings eater.

[allentown]

He is in a position of strength now, for the reasons you state. Wait until mid-2018 and he is in a position of weakness, because he has to make a trade. Trading before Rule 5 also allows us to protect an additional prospect. There is no benefit in waiting to trade one of Galvis or Hernandez.

[Austinfan]

Comes down to what you're offered.
Galvis might have more value if you want a veteran SS anchoring the defense in 2018 behind a young pitching staff, even if you get nothing for him, if you're only offered 2nd tier prospects.
A plus defense will help young pitchers stay in games and build confidence.

At some point you have to balance rebuilding (adding more talent) with building (developing the players you already have).
We don't need more LIvely/Eshleman prospects, we have plenty through AA at this point and more in the system, we need more blue chips.
So I'd hold out for real value for Galvis/Hernandez/Rupp or just keep them to maintain continuity on a young team.
Joseph on the other hand, has no value to this team.

[andyb]

Well yes it would hurt Crawford. He is clearly ready (and Kingery needs at most a half season more). At some point they need to learn on the major league level and why hold them back if they are ready. We do not need to unnecessarily game their free agency.

Your supposed patience does not buy you wins. They may have already missed the best opportunities to deal Galvis and Rupp. Your ML rotation with Lively and Leiter in it is destined to fail (knowing we can't count on VV either). One 2/3 starter in Nola and then a bunch of 4/5 starters (Eickhoff, Velasquez) or worse (Leiter, Lively). I can't think of a better way to ruin the one good pitcher you have in Nola then to put him out there alone.

[Austinfan]

Galvis and Rupp will be worth more this winter than they were last winter or in July, the combination of improvement and continued production raised their value.
Same with Hernandez, teams won't worry that last year was a fluke.

The other pitchers don't impact Nola, the defense and bullpen does. And Eickhoff, Lively and Leiter have the potential to be innings eaters (Eickhoff is one, even with his arm problems, loss of velocity, this season).
Yes, you want to eventually upgrade, but right now I'd be happy with any young starter who can consistently give you quality starts (6 IP, 3 or less runs).
Velasquez, Eflin and Pivetta have better FBs, but right now they're not ML pitchers.

Crawford has had two good months after almost a full year of mediocrity in AAA ball. He's neither ready or not ready, he's sorta in limbo, not playing well enough to make promotion a slam dunk, but well enough that you wouldn't expect him to fall flat on his face. So it doesn't matter if he starts in 2018 or waits until July.

Patience merely means making the best moves for now and the future, and not making moves just to be seen doing something, anything.
Once teams know Klentak doesn't feel the need to dump anyone, they'll bring him real offers.

[bkeich]

I'm worried about Kingery because he's basically swinging at a lot of bad pitches in LV. Chasing breaking balls in the dirt multiple times last night. His walk rate, which wasn't good to begin with, is way down at LV, which is not a good sign. He's at 4% now, down from about 8% in A+ and AA.

To me that's a sign that he's not quite ready for the show yet.

Conveniently we don't want him in the majors until 2019 either because he doesnt need a 40 man spot until that previous offseason. Hopefully we will have others that need that spot, so I have no issue with him spending all of next season in AAA without a callup. It might be mean, but it is keeping a prospect and adding time to his non-FA period.

[andyb]

Kingery in June would accomplish the same service time goals. He is doing well in AAA but as at every level he is more aggressive at the start and it seems to take him a few months to get to his normal BB rate. He did the same thing at Reading though he is also hitting the ball harder now when he does connect.

Crawford is ready. Kingery would probably be OK in the majors but another 8 weeks of AAA next year would not hurt him. A decision could easily be made mid-season. What they should not do is plan on Kingery being down in AAA all season no matter what because that would hurt his development potentially. And if we can trade Hernandez for something good, even if the trade is this offseason, then we should explore it.

[bkeich]

Kingery in June would accomplish the same service time goals.

But it would cost us a prospect. All be it the 40th guy, but still, that may not be someone we want to lose. By August/September we would probably have veterans that we know we do not want back (Nava types) that could just be dropped from the 40 man OR we may have made a trade that would open a spot for Kingery (i.e. traded Hernandez or moved him to another position)

Will be an interesting year next year, we have to start coming out of this rebuild sometime and if it isnt starting to look better at the ML level by then Klentak will be on a very hot seat.

[mdougherty12]

A theoretical mid-2019 Kingery call up would be unlikely to cost us a prospect. There are always 60 day DL candidates by the middle of the season.

[zambonir]

I mean, just look at this season. The 40 was such a concern and they did have to trade Asher and lose Goedell, but they didn't lose Pullin or Tocci, a bunch of guys they protected in that Rule V are long-gone (including Asche and two relievers who were on the Opening Day 25) and there's three position players on the current 25 that you could DFA at any time (Kim, Kelly, Florimon).