17 New York Mets (S Matz) @ Philadelphia Phillies (A Nola)

zambonir 2017-08-13 19:01:14 UTC #102

Indeed. #8 on BREF which does use IPs. Behind Greinke, tied with DeGrom.

Hopefully the guy wins a Cy someday. Otherwise, the only purpose of the "ace" debate besides virtual barroom chatter is how it affect the Phillies' personnel decisions. If the goal was to win a championship next year would you pencil in Nola at #1? Probably not, you''d still want Darvish or Arrieta (concerns about age/contract aside). Since they aren't, and there are age/contract concerns, they'll probably add someone more modest.

And then hopefully Nola - and the team - does well enough next year that when they add a big FA starter for 2019 it will just mean the Phillies have two elite starters (and someone else in the current group will have settled in as a great #3).

EastFallowfield 2017-08-13 19:04:27 UTC #103

Where did Hamels rank on that list in 2008?

bkox 2017-08-13 19:26:56 UTC #104

Hamels had 4.4 BBREF WAR in 2008 which tied him for 10th in the NL. Tim Lincecum led with 7.9

zambonir 2017-08-13 19:38:21 UTC #105

Meaning we shouldn't panic when Nola struggles next year, or that the Phillies should definitely acquire a #1 ahead of him (as they did to Hamels twice. Three times if you count Lee double)?

zambonir 2017-08-13 20:16:07 UTC #106

EastFallowfield 2017-08-13 21:42:35 UTC #107

If we're saying the 8th best pitcher is not an ace, then the definition of ace needs adjustment, unless he's on a team with at least 5 of the guys ahead of him on the list.

zambonir 2017-08-13 21:53:09 UTC #108

Right now he is pitching like an ace, and is one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. But part of being an ace is doing it for, I'd say, three full seasons (but at least two). That's about health as well as performance (not that you can even separate the two).

LoneStarPhan 2017-08-13 22:16:56 UTC #109

Yes, consistency over several seasons is important but even with that, every ace is only an injury away from the DL and the career ending/altering injury is always a possibility.

Right now, it looks like Nola is on his way to filling one of the top spots in the rotation. If a couple of the other young starters can line up behind him in the rotation, I would not be surprised to see the Phillies spring for the bucks to sign another top of the rotation starter.

allentown 2017-08-14 00:39:49 UTC #110

The big issue with Nola and being an ace is durability and pitching very well for more than a few months. He pitched only 111 innings in 2016 and 176 innings, over 3 levels, in 2015. He was injured the start of this year, throwing only 32 MLB innings to an ERA a little north of 5.00 in April and May of this year. His June was very good: 33 IP to a 3.24 ERA. His 54 IP in July and August have been great -- certainly to ace level, but you can't declare acehood based on a month and a half. His MLB ERA is 3.80. His current body of work does not say ace, but it does provide hope.