GDT 6/29/25 Philadelphia Phillies (Suárez, Ra) @ Atlanta Braves (Strider)

[Philsmania]

Ranger has been routinely undervalued by the Phillies’ fans. His only real problem is health--when he’s healthy, he’s Cy Young. I’ll really be sad if they let him walk.

Yeah, I really like him as well but, yeah, his health. His next injury-free season in MLB will be his first. They will almost certainly QO him and they will get a pick if he signs elsewhere. Or, was that negotiated out in the last CBA?

[zambonir]

No, they will still get a pick but as a high-tax team it doesn't come until the end of the 4th round. No reason not to do it, if he accepts, great, if not, you've depressed his FA market slightly (because the compensation for signing a QO is not the same as what the team losing one gets).

[allentown]

Presumably Nola did not get a NTC because both sides figured it would be moot. Trading him would be the easiest swap for Ranger (probably year-for-year and dollar-for-dollar at this point) but probably not gonna happen coming off of this particular season for Nola even if they wanted to do it.

Nola has hit injury woes this season. It is really the first time, at least in years. Apart from the 60-game 2020 season, he has pitched at least 180 IP in the last 6 seasons prior to 2025. As far as we know, this isn't an injury which will require surgery and he will pitch for us again this season and in the playoffs. He has been a horse, along with Wheeler, in the starting rotation, and he has logged 35 rWAR for us. I don't see the logic in getting rid of him. The Phillies pen has been saved most years by the number of innings logged by our starters with Nola and Wheeler leading the way. To trade him now is certainly to sell way low. High odds that with the down time he returns strong for the rest of the season. Whether or not his contract is too long is a risk to which the answer isn't knowable today.

Ranger has had injuries, but has put up at least 2.3 rWAR each of the last 5 seasons, including already reaching that mark this seasons. In his 3 full seasons as a starting pitcher, he has 155, 125, and 150 IP -- not ideal, but not horrendous or always injured, either. A lot of starting pitchers don't put up more than 150 IP per season and almost none exceed 200. That's a change in how baseball is played today.

[zambonir]

I don't want to get rid of anyone but I also think the Phillies should have a Dodgers-like payroll until they develop some more 3-4 WAR homegrown players. I would rather keep Nola than overpay for Suarez. But if you want Suarez back at all costs and simply trading or not re-signing Luzardo doesn't get it done budget-wise (which means Sanchez wouldn't either) Nola is just the more logical odd man out.

You just never know with any of those guys. Nola has been Mr. Reliable. He may never be again. He also might age most poorly (and in some ways has already) due to the nature of his stuff (though that is also seemingly tied into his durability). Wheeler has also been almost entirely reliable because the Phillies didn't have him back in his TJ era. Ranger has been injured every year since he emerged as a good starter but maybe next year will be the first one that goes otherwise.

I hope when we debate this on October 1 it will be because Ranger and Suarez and Luzardo all had injury-free, high-performing second halves. And that when we debate it in November it will be in the glow of a championship. If, instead, it comes after a series like the 2023 NLCS (when Nola and Suarez both got outpitched by the end even if our offense and bullpens was an equally big goat) the debate will be different.

[VoteForKalas]

But it still really comes down to whether Middleton wants to play in the same economic ballpark as the Mets and Dodgers.

Dead on, correct.

Follow up questions include:

If Middleton does want to play in that ballpark, will it be for one year to "go for it" or will it be a consistent commitment like the Dodgers & Mets to maximize the window?

If Middleton does not want to play in that ballpark, will he require DD cut payroll to stay under that threshold?

[zambonir]

If this season fails and the Phillies wanted to get all the way back under the CBT line that probably wouldn't bother me (though it might bother Wheeler and Harper and Turner and Nola). What bothers me is them being where they are, where the draft pick has already been dropped 10 places and they are already at second-highest tax rate, but don't want to go into the final bracket. Unless I'm wrong about that and their goal is to still somehow finish the just under the second threshold - but if that's the case we're not going to like the trade deadline very much either.