I really don't like labelling starters as #1, #2, etc. That varies throughout the year as health and feel for pitches come and go. I really would divide starters into 3 bins--> Top-line/mid-rotation/fringe
We have two top line starters, Eflin is mid-rotation trying to improve to top-line, and Anderson and Moore are fringe, but might be better since each is showing signs of improving over the last year or so.
Honestly, these determinations are best made after the season, in retrospect. Then projecting someone like Nola to be top-line is based on a few seasons of MLB results rather than pure guesswork. I think it's pretty silly taking a minor league guy (like Howard) and saying he projects to one level or another. That's purely guesswork and prejudiced by baseball's infatuation with velocity/stuff. VV still projects to a #1or #2 starter based on his stuff. If we had not seen him pitch over the last 4 years and he just showed up in spring training, everyone would think he would "project" to a #1. That's sort of why everyone is down on him, he's never lived up to his projection, which was probably not "fair" in the first place.