For Delusional 2016 Phillies Phans

flyers19rw 2016-01-30 19:54:27 UTC #21

While I am enjoying watching Hextall rebuild the Flyers, after the disappointment that was the Eagles in '15 and the ongoing debacle that is the Sixers, I too am ready for ST. This season may be the most interesting one since '02 when the young guns started to emerge out of the minors for the Phillies.
Eighty-one wins is a push in my mind but possible. Seventy-one is more realistic but hopefully, a little low; 77-85 might be it for me. It will come down to the pitching. To me, this staff looks to be at least ten games better than what was around in '15. Especially true with what is at LV. If a guy goes down or is dealt, there are better fill ins this year than last. No SOSes, Correas, not ready for prime time Gonzalezes, etc. this year.
The division that the Phillies are in makes a big difference as far as wins-losses could go. With so many of the games being in division, if one or two teams really have poor seasons, the records of the other teams should improve accordingly. The Braves are awful; most likely a one hundred loss team. The Fish could be respectable but they also could have a fire sale; move their best parts and end up in the same category as the Braves. Obviously the Nats and Mets should fight it out for the top spot but both teams have fragile parts that could cost them wins and allow the Phillies to do better than prognosticators might believe at this time.

Slinging_Southpaw 2016-03-14 13:09:52 UTC #22

The only possible trade destination that I can see for trading Ryan Howard.
I had to search out the delusional thread for this.

Ryan Howard and cash to the Astros for Colby Rasmus and Jon Singleton.

The Astros move two players that I don't believe they want to pay over 22 million, especially with Preston Tucker, Jake Marisnick and A.J. Reed waiting in the wings. The Astros get a part time First Baseman/Platoon DH and a lot of payroll savings.

The Phillies remove a distraction, get in return some badly needed outfield depth and someone in Rasmus that they may be able to trade down the line and a failed prospect in Singleton(striking out almost 50% of the time so far in Spring Training) that they can send to Lehigh Valley and try to work with at AAA.

Lawman 2016-03-14 13:29:47 UTC #23

If you're on Twitter, she is @Ut26 and recently took over as Editor in Chief for Crashburn Alley from Bill Baer, who is now full time at Hardball Times.

julio 2016-03-14 13:30:56 UTC #24

Would have to be lots of cash involved. Howard is owed $35 million; Rasmus/Singleton a total of $22.3 million - and in 2016, it's $25 million vs. $17.8 million. In 2017, it's $10 million (Howard's buyout) vs. $2 million. So, $15 million to the Astros just to get them to break-even in 2016-17. "Payroll savings" for the Astros would come from additional money sent to the Astros (Singleton's contract isn't exactly a payroll problem, at $2 million/year). So you're proposing something like $20 million to the Astros in this deal? That would be effectively $10 million now, giving the Astros a $2.8 million 2016 savings, and then $10 million in December, covering Howard's buyout.

Slinging_Southpaw 2016-03-14 14:06:05 UTC #25

julio:

Slinging Southpaw:

The only possible trade destination that I can see for trading Ryan Howard.
I had to search out the delusional thread for this.

Ryan Howard and cash to the Astros for Colby Rasmus and Jon Singleton.

The Astros move two players that I don't believe they want to pay over 22 million, especially with Preston Tucker, Jake Marisnick and A.J. Reed waiting in the wings. The Astros get a part time First Baseman/Platoon DH and a lot of payroll savings.

The Phillies remove a distraction, get in return some badly needed outfield depth and someone in Rasmus that they may be able to trade down the line and a failed prospect in Singleton(striking out almost 50% of the time so far in Spring Training) that they can send to Lehigh Valley and try to work with at AAA.

Would have to be lots of cash involved. Howard is owed $35 million; Rasmus/Singleton a total of $22.3 million - and in 2016, it's $25 million vs. $17.8 million. In 2017, it's $10 million (Howard's buyout) vs. $2 million. So, $15 million to the Astros just to get them to break-even in 2016-17. "Payroll savings" for the Astros would come from additional money sent to the Astros (Singleton's contract isn't exactly a payroll problem, at $2 million/year). So you're proposing something like $20 million to the Astros in this deal? That would be effectively $10 million now, giving the Astros a $2.8 million 2016 savings, and then $10 million in December, covering Howard's buyout.

Whatever it takes. It's all spent money and would benefit both teams. Throw in some extra cash and maybe we buy an extra prospect.

scorcher 2016-03-14 16:03:53 UTC #26

I'm Delusional. I'd bring back Marlon Byrd with the injury to Altherr.

California_Dreamin 2016-03-14 16:53:18 UTC #27

Truth in Advertising Dept here...as someone who profusely defended the Pence deal with Houston, I readily admitted that the only guy I hated to lose was Santana and still recall wincing when hearing he was the PTBNL. Well, it appears that based on what I am reading from Milwaukee, he is starting to look like a guy who may well become an impact player soon. In fact, one follower of the Brewers feels he might be the Brew Crew's best player in 2016...and thats with Braun and Lucroy still on the team.

I admit I follow Milwaukee because they were the team that got both Cecchini and Liriano, two guys mentioned as possible Phillie pickups. Cecchini is hitting .300 in limited appearances so far and Liriano, while not hitting well, has Brewers officials excited because it appears he can play CF well. As for Santana? Hitting a cool .600...9-15.

Its spring training but still interesting to follow these guys because of their Phillie or near Phillie connection.

andyb 2016-03-14 17:09:34 UTC #28

Cosart has been the most valuable part of that deal so far with more than 5 WAR. Lost most of last year to vertigo (inner ear infection) but should be in the Marlins rotation this spring.

gmwannabe 2016-03-14 17:43:48 UTC #29

Don't get me started again, CD and Andy. Terrible, just terrible. With Maikel and C-Los in the middle of the order... Now you're talking about some power!
GM

Austinfan 2016-03-14 18:30:37 UTC #30

Well, this just reinforces my dual attitude of patience with prospects, but only trade your surplus.

Which is why I'll be happy to see Velasquez sent down to join Appel, Thompson, and Eflin at Lehigh, with Williams, Crawford, etc. He needs to focus on developing his secondary pitches, and the Phillies will definitely work with him on the changeup. I don't want to rush anyone this year, no matter how delusional my hopes might be, reality check says two years from now these guys should be starting to hit their stride.

If you just want to fill spots in the lineup, guys like Lough are probably better bets than rushing a young OF. Featherston was forced to spend last year in the majors and it cost him a year of development b/c he was over his head, hopefully Goeddel seems more advanced and may be ready to take that step.

It's starting to look like they're going to have a respectable rotation with the veteran pitchers they've acquired, Morgan pitching well, and even S Gonzalez showing something, though I think he's slotted with the big four at Lehigh to start the season. With Franco looking ready for a big season, if they get some offense out of Ruf and Rupp, they might actually make some waves.

The crazy thing is with the talent at Lehigh, come July they could trade Hellickson, Morton and Oberholtz and actually improve the rotation if the kids are ready.

Philsmania 2016-03-14 21:23:32 UTC #31

Hey, we are tied with the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks (10 wins each) as the winningest teams in Spring Training!

Of course, having said that, I keep expecting to see the losses start to mount once the teams down in Florida start to resemble the teams that start the season. However, it's a good sign for the future that they did well when it was largely prospects vs. prospects.

Philsmania 2016-03-14 21:25:25 UTC #32

For all the people railing about Ceccini and Liriano, I suspect there's a reason Klentak didn't go for them and I suspect it's related to the reason whey the Red Sox and Padres respectively no longer considered them to be top prospects.

donaldorc 2016-03-14 21:27:14 UTC #33

This is why I thought this thread was resurrected. Could've/should've won today as well.

Three_up_Three_down 2016-03-15 01:36:28 UTC #34

But the Phils are getting a lot of runs early, which usually consists of major leaguers playing during that time.

tom81 2016-03-15 02:22:59 UTC #35

Yes this is why this thread was created! Please take your sour pussed ranting about your perceived short comings of this team elsewhere! this team is fun to watch and we have the hottest hitter in baseball entertaining us!!!

California_Dreamin 2016-03-15 02:32:43 UTC #36

Philsmania...wait a minute, as someone who "railed" about the Phillies not going harder for Cecchini or Liriano when they had the opportunity, I should remind you of two reasons why we railed so loudly. One, the Phils certainly have not been adverse to signing or claiming every relief pitcher who can still throw a ball 60'6" and if/when they found someone better to claim or sign, they merely let said reliever go. Why shouldn't they have used the same philosophy with outfielders of potential, especially since its not like the outfield going into ST was Luzinski, Maddox and Mcbride, with Jay Johnstone in reserve?

And two, many of us felt that if the Phils OF had an injury or two it might not be the worst idea in the world to have a few young prospects in line to perhaps take their place. Lets see...Phils started with Asche, Altherr, Herrera, Bourjos and Goeddel. Well, Asche is down, Altherr down, Goeddel is a Rule 5 guy with lots of potential and a resume that shows no at bat higher than AA ball, Bourjos is a guy we thought might not even make the team and Herrera...not sure if you saw the report but he had X-Rays today on a middle finger that he hurt when doing a head first slide into home plate a few days ago. If that finger had been broken?????

Not sure how you feel but as for me, I prefer the potential of Cecchini and Liriano to the known limitations of Lough and Hunter. But then again, thats just me "ranting" again. Look, I love this Phillie team, love the youth, enthusiasm and energy of the team. I love the leadership, enjoy Mac's humor and perspective and expect the 2016 season to be a largely enjoyable and fulfilling one.

But this "ranting" about Cecchini and Liriano is not revisionist history here...we wanted one or both of those guys for the very reasons that are playing themselves out on a daily basis in spring training. If the Phils had lost Herrera [and apparently it well could have happened as they x-rayed it for a possible broken finger] we would today be looking at an outfield that even the 1961 would have been embarrassed to send out there on a daily basis. Afterall, that team had Callison, Demeter, Gonzalez and Covington. We have Bourjos, Hunter and Lough.

Austinfan 2016-03-15 04:06:28 UTC #37

Actually Lough had two nice seasons in 2013 and 2014, on the order of 4 WAR or so over two years in about 500 PA. If Bourjas can bounce back that's a nice platoon in 2016 until Williams arrives.

Goeddel looks like he's going to be the next Herrara, nice spring so far and I suspect they want him playing every day unless he proves he can't handle ML pitching.

zambonir 2016-03-15 07:26:06 UTC #38

The appeal of the unknown, and, especially, youth, is understandable. But it's more likely than not that Liriano and Cecchini will end up as pretty much the same kind of players Bourjos and Lough are (or worse, as both those guys actually did break into the bigs). If this was still the Amaro/Gillick front office I'd be more inclined to criticize as they were known for certain patterns, the lack of a long-term plan and disdain for anything other than their own scouting. But this bunch, I'm willing to see where they go. The priority is to keep games close and support the pitching staff, and having another young question-mark youngster won't necessarily do that, even if there's potential upside in having another one in the mix longer-term.

Anyway, this is the delusional thread, so to stay on topic I'll say that Lough will be this year's Andres Blanco and Bourjos will return to form and get us two prospects in July.

EDmuch 2016-03-15 11:34:35 UTC #39

Jeesh, CD. That is an awful amount of negativity in the "delusional" thread.

andyb 2016-03-15 12:56:22 UTC #40

I am fine with this also. Whether it is Lough or a waiver wire pickup, we really are waiting for Williams and Quinn. Frankly I would be fine with Quinn starting in April if Herrera had a minor injury. Quinn needs more development time, but his speed also will help produce wins on defense and on the bases so that he would not be a large negative even if he hit .220. And with his speed he should always have a decent BABIP, so as long as he does not strike out 30%+ he would be fine.

I was not big on Liriano for the simple fact that the team clearly liked both Altherr and Goeddel more and the players have many similar skills. We were not going to have 4 or 5 right handed hitting outfielders with the only left hander being Herrera. Now injuries do show the lack of depth, but I also firmly believe that there will be a half dozen Liriano type players available through waivers at the end of spring training. Maybe even Liriano himself.

Bottom line is I agree with your premise in other posts that this is a 3-month temporary situation anyway and we should be clearing the way for Williams and Quinn anyway. If that means 20 games of Ruf in the outfield then so be it. Williams and Quinn will both be up by the end of the season and maybe by the All Star break.