Coronavirus (Sports-Related and General)

[Lawman]

I know that's the argument. But, Wisconsin held in-person primaries and did not experience spikes in CV cases.

But, let's also make sure that we're adhering to reasonable standards when deciding how, when, and what to re-open. Flatten the curve” was, I thought, a standard that was meant to spread out infections over time and ensure hospital capacity. Mitigate, not eliminate. It was never meant to stop the virus. ”"Even one infection is too much" is an impossible, unrealistic, standard.

New Jersey seems to be estimating another month or so. I suspect people will be out and about way before that, especially if NY begins to open up sooner.

[andyb]

Jury is still out in WI.

40 Coronavirus Cases In Milwaukee County Linked To Wisconsin Election, Health...

Wisconsin reports largest single-day rise in COVID-19 cases

WI had heavily contested elections though so the argument was different. The argument was more about sending everyone a mail ballot than cancelling the election (though that could have delayed it).

NY has unopposed elections though. In a non-COVID year I'd cancel unopposed elections if it would save money. Many states do not put a race on the ballot if one one candidate has filed.

[zambonir]

Well, it's an unopposed election because New York specifically decided to remove Sanders from the ballot. There is a legal loophole which allows them to do that that has nothing to do with the virus (i.e. I believe they would have tried to do it anyway, and I'm not a Bernie person). Sanders, Warren and Gabbard are still on the ballot in many states, and they can still acquire and use those delegates. Plus New York is still holding the state and Congressional primaries, so it actually sends a terrible message that smaller races don't matter, even if that's also a good public safety outcome. Of course, this should all be vote by mail.

[Lawman]

Of course, this should all be vote by mail.

That works for me.

[andyb]

I think every voter should have the option of voting by mail this year. And states should seriously consider mailing absentee ballots (not just applications) to every voter.

I would still have in-person options though or at least plan to have them. Too many people, mainly younger, would get missed if mail were the only way to vote. There are many logistical hurdles to making this happen. It is a shame that this is at all controversial of course. Republicans just prefer lower turnout and they are trying to make this more difficult because they think it helps them politically. Every other reason they provide is a lie.

[Lawman]

I think every voter should have the option of voting by mail this year. And states should seriously consider mailing absentee ballots (not just applications) to every voter.

Agreed. No reason not to do so.

[Lawman]

I’ve worked the coronavirus front line — and I say it’s time to start opening up

[rpmcmurphy]

The doctor who wrote this makes some salient points, particularly about non-covid illnesses being untreated, but he also makes some statements which would be disagreed with by most top epidemiologists, particularly his categorical statement that we are developing a significant degree of herd immunity. No one knows that, and the limited amount of antibody testing that has been done is by a hodgepodge of different tests. Many of these tests are of dubious quality. It would be very dangerous to have the assumption of herd immunity be a cornerstone of decision making. If we assume that, then other precautions such as social distancing (which he downplays) and mask wearing would be largely ignored. I agree that we must begin to open up the economy, but we have to be smart about it. The assumption of herd immunity is not a smart assumption.

The New York Post is a right-wing publication, and has routinely parroted Trump talking points, which may be why they chose to publish this op-ed.

[Lawman]

I know. Just the general point that it does start to seem as if it's slowing down, which is a good thing. I'm hearing less sirens on a daily basis.

[julio]

I know. Just the general point that it does start to seem as if it's slowing down, which is a good thing. I'm hearing less sirens on a daily basis.

Yes, it does appear to be past the peak - in New York and environs. But not nationally. Not necessarily statewide in NY or NJ. State and national policy has to be driven by trends that are broader than just what’s happening in greater NYC. Caution is in order.

I should add...Do we really want to return to a "normal" that’s characterized by Americans gorging on fast food and 1,700 calorie restaurant entrees, paying people to decorate their fingernails, spending large amounts of money on passive entertainment...all financed by ever-growing consumer debt? This pandemic has been tragic...but it is an opportunity to think about what we want our future to look like - and that need not be just like the way we lived "before."

[Lawman]

Yes, it does appear to be past the peak - in New York and environs. But not nationally. Not necessarily statewide in NY or NJ. State and national policy has to be driven by trends that are broader than just what’s happening in greater NYC. Caution is in order.

Oh, completely agreed. But, while I think we need national guidance, that helps the states in setting policies as to what to re-open and when to do it, ultimately, I think the policies will have to be on a state by state basis. And, really, drilled down even further within states on a region by region basis. From what I'm seeing here in NY (I'm in Rockland County, which is just north of NYC), NY State will have different opening policies in different regions. But, NY as a whole may begin opening sooner then NJ will. What impact that will have remains to be seen.

I should add...Do we really want to return to a "normal" that’s characterized by Americans gorging on fast food and 1,700 calorie restaurant entrees, paying people to decorate their fingernails, spending large amounts of money on passive entertainment...all financed by ever-growing consumer debt? This pandemic has been tragic...but it is an opportunity to think about what we want our future to look like - and that need not be just like the way we lived "before."

I would agree with that, to some extent. I think that going back to the way things were before CV is probably not realistic. Not, at least, in the short term. We'll have to re-define "normal" and, for a long time, that definition will be a dynamic one that changes on a weekly and monthly basis.

[Philsmania]

In my admittedly unscientific opinion, the virus struck first in coastal and urban areas that are most plugged into the global economy and with people who are more likely to travel around and abroad. It's gradually spreading to the more interior so-called Heartland. Not surprising that the coastal and urban areas can see a possible glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel while the interior areas have only just begun to enter the tunnel.

[andyb]

I have mixed feelings on this. We do need to reopen partially at some point and we do need guidance. None of the states currently starting to open are really following the guidance however. Testing is nowhere close to what is needed and in most cases we seem to be just beyond the peak in cases.

At the very least it seems May 15th would be a more prudent date to start considering reopening even in the places where cases are fewer. We still won't have testing by then, but hopefully daily case loads will be half of what they are today if we are in the downward trend. Warmer weather should help with this and it has actually been a rare colder than normal April in much of the country.

We are clearly not going to follow guidelines as a country. That being said, we probably should add a 2-week cushion into all the current plans just to be safe. Testing will never be adequate, but maybe let's get to a half million tests a day so we have a better shot at limiting outbreaks. We won't be able to stop this reopening. We just need to put some breaks and bumpers onto it.

[zambonir]

It's just not clear to me that re-opening isn't going to cause more economic pain than not re-opening. You're going to to have far more independent businesses that can't pull it off than can, and employees losing their benefits (if they don't feel safe to return to work). And I'm not sure there's a plan for benefits (or business interruption insurance) to help businesses that can only be partial re-opened, with no chance of making a profit. Many of them are better off right now with a rent hiatus than opening, losing money, and folding completely. To me that's what this is really about, landlords and corporations need their $, and that's business, that's an economy, but I think it's going to be self-defeating and won't slow the recession in any way, especially with the the tourist and entertainment sectors not coming back, and the restaurant sector hollowed out. These governors keep including "movie theaters" in their list but the big movie theater owners are in trouble already, have no new movies to show, and probably will lose money if they open.

And then on top of that you have the possibility of just having to go back into lockdown (or worse, of an infection rebound).

But mostly Andy is right. Nobody who is rushing to open has a plan. Nobody is really using science. And there's still not the infrastructure to make this work. The Texas task force to reopen included no elected officials and no medical or science people (and their "advisors" aren't experts in the field either). There's no statewide mask policy (and cities are banned from having their own standards, for anything). And they say you shouldn't go back to work if you're sick or compromised but there's not actually any policy to protect people who make that choice.

[andyb]

A hidden problem in these partial reopening plans is that many businesses like restaurants probably lose money at 50% capacity. They probably have 70%-80% of their costs but only 50% of their revenue in those situations. And 50% might be generous if people are nervous for a few months.

Businesses with small margins might be better off staying closed and that will be a problem.

[Lawman]

Restaurants who are open for delivery and take-out only may want to stay that way, rather then having to pay wait staff and back-end cleaning help.

I think construction can be slowly re-started, small businesses (I'm thinking dry cleaners, clothing stores) maybe gyms (have to really think about that one), libraries, auto repair, book stores. I think schools can begin opening for younger grades and on a limited basis.

This is what Israel is doing, with grades older then the below remaining at home:

Kindergarten classes will be divided into two groups of 15 children each. Each group will attend school for half a week on separate days and be divided into two smaller groups of about 7-8 children each in separate classrooms in the kindergarten.

Children in 1st-3rd grades will also be divided into two groups of about 15 students each. Each group will learn in separate classrooms with studies taking place from Sunday through Thursday. The groups will alternate breaking for recess to minimize contact between the children.

[LegoDoom]

I have no idea what is going to happen to restaurants. I love that they are open for curbside, but a lot of limited menus. Operating at 50-60% capacity going forward can't work for them. Seems like they would need government help to stay open.

Even if schools can find a way to distance (which I don't think they can), students can't get there by bus. I know a few school administrators and there is no plan for that right now.

Edit: I do love that golf has reopened in PA starting this weekend. I think that can work with very limited contact.

[julio]

What is with the preoccupation with dry cleaners? With many white collar employees working remotely, what needs to be dry-cleaned? Ditto clothing stores; staying home doesn’t require much of a wardrobe. You’re talking about prioritizing one of the more egregiously ostentatious and pointless aspects of our "before" culture. Let it die.

[Lawman]

What is with the preoccupation with dry cleaners? With many white collar employees working remotely, what needs to be dry-cleaned? Ditto clothing stores; staying home doesn’t require much of a wardrobe. You’re talking about prioritizing one of the more egregiously ostentatious and pointless aspects of our "before" culture. Let it die.

Dry cleaners: Small business, can be done safely and with social distancing, and can be ramped up fairly quickly. Moreover, they are, from what I can see, owned and operated by hard working people from minority communities.

Clothing stores: I'm not talking about the chain stores or those in shopping malls. But, there are plenty of individually owned small, single location, stores. Or, there are where I live.

[zambonir]

The restaurant critic in Austin has yet to find a single business that plans to open Friday (at 25%). Now, maybe Applebee's has other plans.

"Dry cleaning" my not be an absolute necessity in and of itself but that category also includes laundromats, which many working people and families rely on (if their home or building doesn't have washer-dryers), as do many homeless people.

Gyms do seem kind of unnecessary. Auto repair never stopped in most places.