Iâm afraid that you are right, andyb, for several reasons. In the hot spot areas there will be an increased death rate for other acute illnesses because of the stress on medical facilities. Plus, many will die who would otherwise have been saved because they are afraid (with good reason) to go to their care facilities.
This article from yesterdayâs NYT talks about this:
Even after all is said and done one or two years from now there is going to be a debate as to the overall lethality of this pandemic. The deaths from non-Covid-19 acute illness (heart attacks, strokes, etc.) could be much higher than average. On the other hand, the shutdown that we are in, and even the partial shutdown later on, will probably dramatically decrease the deaths from causes such as automobile accidents, and from other communicable illnesses, although not nearly enough to offset the Covid-19 losses. I suspect that the increase in total deaths from ancillary causes could equal those of the final Covid-19 number, but that, of course, is just speculation at this early point.
This is an epic tragedy to be sure, but its final contours are still to be determined.