2024 Phillies Season Discussion

[andyb]

I would think teams being more willing to jump their best guys from AA straight to MLB

I would love to see data on this. Certainly before these changes AAA was just about all older players. It now has more prospects there. There have always been stars who skip AAA (and even non-stars like Johan Rojas or Bruce Ruffin from a long time ago who are just needed at the major league level suddenly). It would stand to reason that if the minor leagues are thinner with more prospects per organizational roster spot (the logic if there are as many prospects today), then they are not really skipping AAA.

They might be getting to AAA earlier, but logic would say they are probably not skipping it as much as in the past.

[bkeich]

My understanding is that the “powers that be” in Latin America is also pushing athletes to be hitters not pitchers because the majors are shying away from Latin American pitching more due to the probable overwork and low success rate.

I think that may also be causing it to seem like the quality is lower. You are getting fewer pitchers and more hitters, which shows up as easier times for hitters until they go up in levels.

Funny part is that the majors needs more pitchers than ever with the standard roster now being 13 hitters and 13 pitchers and an unofficial taxi squad of relievers bouncing between the majors and AAA

[andyb]

This is actually year 5 of the 26-man/13-pitcher roster which started in 2020 with pandemic rules but was formal in 2021. Before that there was at least 5 years of most teams still carrying 13 pitchers though I imagine teams would go through part of the season then with only 12 based on injuries and off days.

The 13-pitcher limit started in 2020 but has really been the rule for almost a decade.

Offense is at a low too of late in the majors (not in AAA). That is partly because of the velocity, but it is hard to say that pitchers alone are a competition problem at AAA if that is the case. And why do the actual AAAA hitters like Jake Cave and David Dahl dominate so much? It just seems the level of competition at AAA is worse.

[zambonir]

Well, there's also the changes to the CBA and the general trend of not leaving guys in the minors too long. Obviously the cheap teams still consider service time but many also now realize doing so means they just overpay for a less valuable slightly declining year later. Even Bohm only had 68 AAA plate appearances, though he presumably would have had some in 2020 if not for COVID (he was only at the alternate site briefly and didn't see Allentown until his 2021 demotion).

Based on the article it just seems like if teams are no longer putting their Andrew Painters (if healthy) and Orion Kerkerings in AAA than your David Dahls are hitting lesser pitcher due to that as well. The injuries probably a factor too since they aren't facing Spencer Turnbull or now Michael Mercado either. As the major league-ready depth thins out you get either lesser veterans or not-polished prospects.

The ABS is also an issue for the pitching in AAA no?

[zambonir]

It's possible that Brian Kaplan, rather than Cotham, is the guy the Phillies would least want to lose/might need to keep with a raise or even bigger title.

With calm felt from dugout to stands, Michael Mercado stays composed in first...

Brian Kaplan is in his third year as the club’s assistant pitching coach. He doubles as the director of pitching development, a role that has allowed him to incorporate lessons from years of training elite pitchers at a private facility in Florida. Everything, in Kaplan’s mind, is tied to a pitcher’s body. It is all connected.

This is why Kaplan led a concerted effort to have Cristopher Sánchez, who is authoring a breakout season, add more strength. (He’s now 26 pounds heavier than he was two winters ago.) It is why, when Kaplan saw Mercado in spring training, he lobbied Phillies officials to make him a starting pitcher.

[BostonRoss]

Currently, the Braves are closer to the Mets in the standings than they are to the Phillies. Actually, they’re even closer to the Nationals.

[zambonir]

Yeah it's gonna be real interesting to see what the Mets and Nats do at the deadline. I assume SF and Arizona will be buyers (of the other sub-.500 teams).

Braves are probably where the Phillies were the last years, the deadline is not about making a run at the division, just holding that top wild card and getting a better October roster (which unfortunately the Phillies failed to do with their one big move not working out and no bat).

[zambonir]

Braves lost last night. Unless the Phillies get swept they will come home from Atlanta with a still-massive lead (eight). Or an even a more massive one (ten? twelve?)

[VoteForKalas]

The latter would be great. Without Harper, Schwarber and JT, that would be quite an accomplishment.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

Tyler Phillips called up, Yunior Marte sent down, and Luis Ortiz transferred to the 60-day IL.

[zambonir]

That's interesting. Would seem to suggest they want Ruiz in shorter/higher-leverage spots (and of course that they don't want to lose him either). Or does it mean they don't intend to let Mercado keep starting?

[Austinfan]

Probably a back of the bullpen shuffle, Phillips hasn't looked nearly as good as Mercao as a starter, so doubtful he's up to replace him. Maybe they saw something they think Marte has to work on, or he re-injured himself. Or they think he has tired arm and this is a way to give him a few days off while keeping a long relief guy around.

[andyb]

Or does it mean they don't intend to let Mercado keep starting?

Or just that they think Mercado is more of a 70-80 pitch guy max. And that could be 4 innings or less some nights.

Probably a short term move with Phillips just because he is on the 40 and the option has already been used. I could see Walker making the 5th start after the All Star break too.

[zambonir]

Well, he wasn't on the 40 (he took Ortiz's spot). I reckon it's just a bit of a July shake-out cruise that ultimately maybe does put Ruiz's spot in danger, since he doesn't have options. If they make a trade and Walker and Turnbull both come back (in any role) they won't have a spot for Ruiz, but will still have Mercado, Phillips, Marte and Nelson available to come and go. Or they might not make a trade.

Wonder if we'll ever see Dylan Covey again.

[andyb]

They still have multiple 40 man spots available. Is Rodolfo Castro even alive these days? He has not been put on the 60 yet. And I have seen nothing from Kolby Allard or Max Castillo to suggest they are worth a spot also. I don't think Phillips is more than a 7th starter type at this point, but we still have multiple potential easy moves to make. And compression (Pache or Merrifield) could also happen too.

[zambonir]

For sure trimming the 40 is easy. But Ruiz can't be optioned so he's either here for the year or he'll eventually go off it (even if he clears).

I gathered Allard has come back around, but if he's still behind Phillips...

[andyb]

You kind of said the 40-man spot was a barrier. I just said that it is probably not. All these pitchers are mediocre. Max Lazar actually had his first bad outing last week or he would likely have been added.

[zambonir]

No I meant his spot on the 26-man is in danger, but in his case it's ultimately the same thing. He's been pretty good, I see no reason to think Mercado or Phillips (nor, obviously Marte) will force him out, but a trade acquisition would once Turnbull is back (since he can't be optioned either).

A month ago we might have thought they'd cut bait with Seranthony or Soto in order to upgrade instead (maybe by including them in a trade) but that seems less likely.

[zambonir]

If you don't have an Inquirer sub Coffey is loosening up the paywall with some screenshots here.

Tyler Phillips, who was called up today, grew up a Phillies fan. Last year, he got tickets for G2 of NLCS but hit traffic.

“I parked at Chickie’s and Pete’s. I was like, ‘I gotta go. Here’s $150.’"

He arrived in the fifth. The experience stuck with him: https://t.co/KeHWr0CBQu pic.twitter.com/xO7RlYk67Q

— Alex Coffey ( @byalexcoffey ) July 5, 2024

[zambonir]

Story suggests they just want more of a long man for the Atlanta series in case of rain (and yeah to pair with Mercado also makes sense).

And that Schwarber should be ready go Tuesday.