Forgive me if I'm missing it, but your responses are coming across to me as a bit scattered - tangential quips that are skirting more specific, central questions. As an example, here, I don't disagree that the future can't be predicted. But that hasn't really been a point of contention. This started with SF's complaint of Joe's tendency of not going for a second inning out of a reliever who was dealing, to which you responded:
I expressed genuine interest in seeing the data or link backing that claim, but you all but avoided speaking to it in response - your only reference being:
Again, while I can agree with this as a general principle, there are specifics I think need to be considered relative to individual situations - you touched on this a bit yourself, noting that some guys can face four batters, some six outs, but some not. So if a pitcher is stretched to throw ~30 pitches in a game and made quick work of his first three outs, we need to define what 'extending the outing' really is. Moreover, while we can't speak with certainty regarding what the result involving a pitcher who was, in fact, pulled would have been, we can extract data on actual past performance - like the second inning performances of relievers primarily seen as ~30 pitch guys.
Anyway, the bulk of your second post was dedicated to Joe's tendencies in reliever selection, which, while addressing another topic in the discussion, failed to answer my specific question stemming from your first post:
My question being to whom you looked at as his 'best guys'. Nearly everyone that's set foot in that bullpen this season has cycled through periods of maddening inconsistency, injury, or both - thus, in my mind, lending further support to the idea of sticking with the hot hand in-game, if practical.