However, I don't think any of our five 1st rd picks was a bad pick, given what we knew at the time. Randolph was a first rate HS hitter (though overdrafted due to lack of a position), Moniak was an elite HS hitter, Bohm, Stott, Haseley college players with strong track records. Why did Kingery regress so badly, or Knapp? In this case, I have to think it was less scouting than player development. Ortiz was scouting, overrating a 16 year old being physically mature (which meant his upside was limited). The only overperformers seem to be LA pitchers who add velocity as they mature, which is more scouting than player development (finding low cost upside guys and stock up on them).
Now I don't mind upside gambles like Simmons and Baylor after the first couple rounds. In fact, that now seems to be the organization philosophy which I agree, outside of maybe the first 10 or so picks, where you hate to whiff, go for upside over a floor which is maybe a ML bench player - bench players are fungible.