Playoff odds are fluctuating massively day to day. Currently at 72.9%.
With 7 games left we could theoretically still win the division or miss out entirely. I think making up the 3 games to win the division is unlikely as they have a pretty soft schedule remaining but its not out of the question.
Braves remaining games are 4 vs Miami and 3 vs Boston. The Marlins remaining games are 4 vs Atlanta and 3 vs the Yankees. The Phillies last 7 games are 4 vs Washington and 3 vs Tampa.
If we get JT back or if Bryce is healthy then I think there is a good chance we can over take Miami in the next four games, or alternatively that we close the gap on Atlanta. Its baseball so who knows, maybe the Nats look good this week and we're out of it, but the schedule over the next four games appears to be in our favour, especially with Wheeler, Nola and Eflin taking the ball in 3 of those four games.
Those last three games in Tampa are tricky. They are a very good baseball team and Nola and Wheeler will be available for the final two games of the season. There is only one day between the end of the regular season and the start of the playoffs so if you use them for the Tampa series then they likely aren't pitching in the first round.
If the Phillies go 3 of 4 vs the Nats, do you hold back Nola and Wheeler and hope to maybe go 1 of 3 in Tampa and that a 31-29 record is good enough? Or wait and see how the wild card race is playing out and use them if necessary?
The other wild card contenders and their remaining games:
Cardinals 0.5 games ahead - 3 vs Royals, 5 (including back to back Double Headers) vs Brewers
Reds 0.5 games back - 3 vs Brewers, 3 vs Twins
Brewers 0.5 GB 3 vs Reds, 5 vs Cardinals
Giants 0.5 GB 4 vs Rockies, 4 vs Padres.
The fact that the Braves and Marlins, and Cardinals, Reds and Brewers all play each other has to be a bonus for us. On the other hand, Marlins vs Yankees, Reds vs Twins, Giants vs Padres are all sort of meaningless for the Yankees, Twins and Padres who likely will be more preoccupied with setting themselves up for the playoffs. The same of course applies to the Rays.