But those things happen in any season. The bullpen didn't actually lose any more games in and of itself than the offense or a bad starting pitcher outing did. I'm sure you could find 5 games of any of the first 60 last year and say they could have gone the other way.
And it's not yet clear if the bullpen is significantly improved - still no idea about Neris, Workman and Hembree haven't been good, Morgan and Alvarez are both on the IL, who knows what Suarez has. Phelps is obviously big.
The injury luck might be the single biggest factor in our favor, if it holds. Along with squeezing as much as they can out of the bottom-end starting pitchers.
Conversely, we have a fairly difficult schedule. 19 of the 29 games are on the road,including 4 of the 5 doubleheaders (though one game against Toronto we'll bat last). We're 4-6 on the road (one of those games was at CBP).
I could see them going 14-15 the rest of the way, but still making the playoffs. They could also go 20-9, who knows. That's the beauty of small samples. Last year's team was 17-11 in May and 13-14 in August. It was 34-38 (.472) in the second half. They may yet finish 29-31 (.483) this season. Right now the Giants (18-19, .486) are the last playoff team.
If they are really better, and stay healthy, the division might still be there for the taking, and the 5th seed definitely is. We can also eliminate the Marlins by ourselves (but the opposite is also true).