2019 Phillies Spring Training Discussion

phillychuck 2019-03-25 15:45:23 UTC #301

I like McBride as a player--I think he would contribute more than Rodriguez and I'm biased b/c he's from Lehigh. I don't want him to lose time. (I root for CJ McCollum, too!)

I also like Listi, Cozens, and Walding and think they can develop.

And, based on SSS spring observations this year, I also think Gosselin is a better player so I don't want his time impacted, either.

I'm probably too much of an Iron Pigs fan for my own good .

phillychuck 2019-03-25 15:48:22 UTC #302

I don't like hitting Franco 8th--it will exacerbate his tendency to chase bad pitches since pitchers won't worry about the pitcher being on deck. Flip him with Hernandez.

julio 2019-03-25 15:54:49 UTC #303

I agree. This also has the advantage of separating Herrera (LH) and Hernandez (switch hitter) with Franco (RH). With three guys in the lineup who can bat LH, it makes sense to not line two of 'em up next to each other.

el-pietro 2019-03-25 15:58:33 UTC #304

Strong lineup for Tampa, looks like their opening day lineup with the exception of the starting pitcher who is down as number 6 on their depth chart. I wonder is he scheduled to pitch the bulk of the game or will we see "the opener".

zambonir 2019-03-25 16:52:28 UTC #305

Maybe Hernandez will hit 9th when they hit the pitcher 8th.

phillychuck 2019-03-25 17:23:50 UTC #306

Still puts Franco in the batters box when the pitcher can pitch off the plate with no serious consequences lurking on deck.

tom81 2019-03-25 17:25:04 UTC #307

I’d flip flop Realmuto and Herrera, at least for now with Herrera having such a good game yesterday. I’fd also keep Hernandez and Franco where they are, since Hernandez has a higher OBP and Franco more power.

phillychuck 2019-03-25 17:29:13 UTC #308

Although it's not real significant in lineup simulations, it's better to have OBP in the 8 hole than power.

LoneStarPhan 2019-03-25 19:49:18 UTC #309

Phillies end spring training on a high note as Malvin Matos hits a ball to right for an opposite field walk off home run in the bottom of the 9th to give the Phillies a 3-2 win. Phillies first two runs on a second inning homer from Franco.

Arrieta pitches six giving up a two run homer in the second. He gave up 6 hits, no walks, and K's 8.
Scoreless innings from Neshek, Alvarez, and Dominguez for a good day from the bullpen. Seranthony gets the W.

And now it counts!

DurhamBull 2019-03-25 21:07:05 UTC #310

Didn't Franco improve last year when batting 8th? ISTR Kapler doing it intentionally to improve Franco's selectivity or something like that, and explicitly saying in the media that Franco being 8th in the order wasn't a punishment but an attempt to get him to approach his ABs differently. I thought it was pretty smart (esp. since it seemed to work), but what do I know.

zambonir 2019-03-25 21:20:14 UTC #311

Yup you are remembering that correctly, though it didn't happen that often.

Hard to correlate this stuff with other factors (like his health and hot streak), and it's SSS too, but the breakdown:

Batting 5th, 96 PAs, .723 OPS
Batting 6th, 162 PAs, .821 OPS
Batting 7th, 135 PAs, .753 OPS
Batting 8th, 46 PAs, 1.021 OPS

Only three starts and 12 games at the other five spots in the order.

donaldorc 2019-03-25 21:51:52 UTC #312

These lineup discussions sure are more interesting than at the beginning of last year. Lots of interesting possibilities with L-R, speed, OPS and power. Let the games begin!

LoneStarPhan 2019-03-25 21:58:48 UTC #313

Improves with each lower level. Bat him 9th and he is a sure Hall of Famer.

But seriously, let's see how he does with a couple weeks in the 8 hole to start the season.

zambonir 2019-03-25 22:25:08 UTC #314

Smile noted, but FWIW: Only 7 PAs, a .452 OPS and a BA that matched his SLG (i.e. he had one single).

andyb 2019-03-26 18:43:20 UTC #315

Fangraphs finishes up with the Phillies 4th in bullpen rankings (which means just say no to Kimbrel). RF was 4th also with Harper. Starting pitching was slightly above average at 12th. There is a drop down in the article to show all the Phillies rankings on one page.

The team's current weak areas are 3B (28th), CF (21st), and 2B (17th). Keep that in mind when thinking about ways to improve the team mid-season if the need arises. The biggest bang for the buck would be a 3B upgrade and even the most favorable Kingery projection would not move the needle that much.

One other tidbit I noticed in the RF rankings. Phillies (Harper) are 4th behind the Red Sox (Betts), Yankees (Judge), and Brewers (Yelich). The difference in the rankings is all defense. Harper actually has the best offensive projection of those 4 players. If Harper's defense were neutral he probably would have the number one ranking here.

el-pietro 2019-03-26 19:11:59 UTC #316

Interesting that they put the Phillies 12th in starters. There doesn't appear to be much of a margin between the Dodgers in 7th and Rockies in 13th though. Given that they seem relatively low on Nola (4.2), Arrieta (1.8) and Pivetta (2.3), I think there is a lot of room for improvement come end of season.

andyb 2019-03-26 19:21:55 UTC #317

Remember these are projections. Nola at 4 WAR is still a really good year and the history of young pitchers with his stuff is not as good as the 10 WAR he had last year. The reason that we are above average is that 2-5 we are all solid but not special. 4 pitchers in the 1.5-2.3 WAR range. The key thing is they expect us to have 7-8 WAR from our starters. In reality with young pitchers it might be that one steps forward with a 4 WAR year and one steps backward with a negative WAR year.

I think starting pitching is probably the second area beyond 3B where we might seek to improve. Kingery and Quinn give us some internal options at 2B or CF if things went poorly for the starters. But out of 5 starting pitchers, it is likely that 1 or 2 will have bad years and I am not sold on the team relying on anyone from the AAA rotation. De Los Santos and Eickhoff and Anderson really look like nice 5th starter types. They are not the pitchers you would have confidence in if you want a 2-win upgrade for the playoffs.

zambonir 2019-03-26 19:33:03 UTC #318

I think the low projections for 2B and CF are also a potential cause for optimism. Their track records are better than that and they are not necessarily declining, if those were off-years in 2018.

mdougherty12 2019-03-26 19:43:55 UTC #319

In addition, Nola had 5.4 WAR by Fangraphs accounting, not the 10+ WAR that Baseball-Reference credited him with.

andyb 2019-03-26 19:55:19 UTC #320

Yes. Fangraphs uses the component numbers so its projections will be closer to FIP each time. BR uses performance more so I guess if one thought Nola would have a consistently low BABIP and high swing/miss rate then 4 WAR could easily underestimate him.

All these are regression to the mean though. So players with a good year are expected to get worse (like Nola) and players with a bad year but solid history might be projected to improve. Pivetta and Velasquez look good in these projections simply because they miss lots of bats and stuff>luck when you project.

The upside on Velasquez is worth spending lots of time to try to find. I saw him a couple of times in Spring Training and the stuff was great but the location is poor. He is not as good as Max Scherzer, but there are some similarities in terms of stuff. Scherzer did not become great until he was 27. Jacob de Grom did not even make the majors till he was 26. Velasquez turns 27 in June. Clearly he has a shorter leash this season than in the past, but he is really important to the team. His lack of success would most likely lead to a trade (rather than seeing if the AAA guys were any good).