Phillies start the second half with 3 vs Washington and 4 vs Dodgers (best record in baseball). Which means there is a very good chance they fall below .500 by July 18th.
But then, the schedule should be in their favor for over a month and a half. From July 19th Through Sept 8th, the Phillies play 45 games. Only 8 of those are against teams currently .500 or better. (3x Braves, 3x Cubs, 2x Boston)
If they can turn it around during that time and play their way back into the race. Sept 9th starts the gauntlet with 7 versus the Braves, 2 versus Boston, 3 versus Cleveland, and 5 versus Washington including a DH.
My personal opinion.. we finish well outside the playoffs and 4-5 games under .500.
If things look bleak at the at the end of July, I would look to move Bruce and finally give Williams 2 months to prove he can be an every day player. I would also look to see if Cesar has any interest so Kingery can move there next year when Cutch is back