Well, Donaldson is still on the board. Trades for a 3B, pitcher, higher-leverage reliever or CF are still on the board. But yeah, otherwise it's a wild card team at best unless quite a few players on both sides of the ball hit ceilings (I'd add Cutch, Segura, Kingery and several relievers to your list).
Robertson is the only dead money hurting them (along with Herrera) but his money is not the problem per se. It's that five of the eight position players and two of the top three starters are all highly paid FAs or trade acquisitions - no different from the 2011 team really, except without the homegrown stars who gave us their cheap years first (and without any accomplishments).
So it's understandable they really want those last three spots (Kingery/Bohm, Kingery/Haseley, Hoskins) and last two pitchers to stay cheap and homegrown. It just seems like there's a bit of a mixed message/plan, or the GM and owner still aren't really on the same page. The owner wants a ring now but seems to think just changing managers and a few improvements are enough; my guess is his employees don't necessarily believe it's enough but are also temperamentally against paying the tax or selling out the future (with more trades or long-term contracts), even if they're not going to be here for it.
I don't think the team is looking towards the future CBA - nothing about teams' near-collusive approach to the CBT (it is not actually a salary cap) suggests the owners would ever give in on the cap. If anything most owners still want a real cap. And the penalties aren't really that big now (especiallly not for first-timers). Whatever the MLBPA might try to do to get player revenue improved, I don't think it will be that. A salary floor, reforming the draft to disincentivize tanking, earlier free agency, getting rid of QOs, higher pay earlier in the service clock... all more important. Plus they are going to get the DH probably.
Anyway, the Phillies aren't really "shifting" that much money forward, they are just opting not to shift any money backwards (as far as JT). With Arrieta, Robertson and Gregorius off the books this year, followed by Cutch and Herrera (after 2021) and Segura (after 2022) Realmuto's contract won't be a burder in and of itself. They just can't hack it this year.