Phillies Prospect Lists

[phillychuck]

They picked the high upside player in Moniak over Puk and Senzel. Taking a HS player is a gamble, there are literally no scouts that consistently can look at a HS player and distinguish between a future all-star in MLB and a future utility player watching them play against other 18-year-olds. That's one of the key take-aways from Moneyball. We rolled the dice on Moniak and it looks (at this early point) like we didn't roll well. But, it's still early...he's 3 full years younger than Senzel, lets see if he can post a 750 OPS (or more) in 2023 in the bigs.

[bigegypt0417]

It's always interesting to see the hindsight post drafters asking "if we would have drafted this guy" as if somehow reviewing 2 years after the fact is a skill.

The Phillies went in to the draft with the idea of gambling on HS players at the top and it hasn't worked out. That was a draft that screamed boom or bust and so far it's been a bust.

A step forward for moniak and romero could certainly change that.

[andyb]

Do you not think it is fair to evaluate how well a team did after a draft? The final grades won't be in for another 5 years, but it still looks pretty bad. The people on this board are not scouts. We are often wrong about who to draft and who to trade for and which prospect is best. We all know that. That is very different from evaluating the results of a draft after the fact though. It is not that the strategy the Phillies picked (gambling on HS players) was generally bad. It is the players they picked were not the correct players to pick. They spent several years obsessing on HS hit tools only to figure out that they were not really that good at evaluating HS hit tools.

Klentak has made some good picks too (like Howard). He just has not made enough of them so far.

[Austinfan]

What have Senzel or Puk done to think they'll be better than Moniak. They're both 25 this year, not much upside left.

And that was the point of the gamble, in a draft where the top five was similar to Haseley or Stott, it made more sense to gamble on Moniak and garner better players later in the draft.

Gowdy was bad luck, if his arm comes around it's just a hiccup.
Stephen is 22 in the AAA, while he has some positional limitations, we'll see this year if he can rake.
The whiff was Stobbe, who has shown no sign of improvement.

We'll see if they've improved their development process this year.

Rafael Chavez, the Phillies minor-league director of pitching development, instructed Rosso to work this offseason at Driveline Baseball.

They also hired the co-founder of Driveline as their minor league director of hitting development.

Seems like they're all in when it comes to Driveline.

[bigegypt0417]

Do you not think it is fair to evaluate how well a team did after a draft?

It is fair...there are realities in that draft that can't be ignored. It wasn't the best draft to have the 1:1 pick. It was also a draft that was viewed as missing any premier talent. The phillies took a philosophy and drafting upside over floor. We can knock it all we want but it was a good gamble at the time IMO.

[phillychuck]

To give a fair perspective to how we viewed Moniak and how the scouts view him at the time:

Londerhagen, ESPN:
"The Phillies select California prep outfielder Mickey Moniak. He's the best pure hitter in the draft, eliciting some future 70 scouting grades with his bat. His swing is fluid and compact, and Moniak shows some elite hitting traits in the way he adjusts to pitches mid-flight. While not a track star, Moniak runs well enough to stay in center field and has a good feel for the position.

Moniak doesn't have a frame that projects for much power, but the combination of elite hitting potential and the ability to play a premium defensive position makes him a potential All-Star. While any player selected with the first pick overall could sign for an underslot deal, Moniak will likely sign for a bigger discount than other alternatives, giving the Phillies a lot of financial flexibility at their next pick (42nd overall)."

Mickey Moniak: Prospect Profile for No. 1 Pick of 2016 MLB Draft by Phillies

Mickey Moniak Scouting Report | Fueled by Sports

Reading the draft thread most of us were positive, and even during the 2016 GCL season we were on board.

Just FYI.

[andyb]

It is fair...there are realities in that draft that can't be ignored. It wasn't the best draft to have the 1:1 pick. It was also a draft that was viewed as missing any premier talent. The phillies took a philosophy and drafting upside over floor. We can knock it all we want but it was a good gamble at the time IMO

It is not just the 1.1 pick. It is the other 5 players signed with money saved because we got a huge drafting allocation. And it is not like there will not be others drafted near Moniak that are likely better than him too. There were few stars at the top of the draft, but there were good players.

[bigegypt0417]

Nothing you just typed changed anything I said. The phillies had a philosophy at the time and in the weeks following that draft most experts thought they did well.

In hindsight...it ended up not being the best outcome. The results are not what you would have wanted.

The Phillies drafted Moniak on his upside and that doesn't seem to have worked out...yet.

[julio]

Too early to be sure, of course, but at this point it looks like the best HS pick in the 2016 draft may have been Bo Bichette, taken #66 by the Jays. Of course, he was passed over by ALL 30 clubs in the first round...but there it is.

There are couple of college drafts from 2016 who, as of now, have more career WAR than Bichette - but given he's younger, and plays a premium position (SS), I'd have trouble valuing Pete Alonso more highly than Bichette!

The first-round guys who were talked about as alternatives to Moniak? Senzel, Puk, Pint, Ray, Anderson - Adam Haseley has produced more WAR than all of 'em put together, and the Moniak critics here aren't, as a rule, very high on Haseley.

Bottom line, looking at the top three rounds of the 2016 draft - Bichette, a couple of pitchers who will have some value, the one-dimensional Alonso... and not much. Moniak may yet be one of the better returns on this group... and that ain't sayin' much.

[phillychuck]

Interesting exercise for y'all--if you re-ordered the draft based on knowledge through the 2019 season, wouldn't Moniak still go in the first round (looking at performance and remaining potential)? I think he'd be somewhere between 15-25 based on a quick review of the draft.

[andyb]

The phillies had a philosophy at the time and in the weeks following that draft most experts thought they did well.

Are you saying they get a pass because their philosophy was wrong? Not because they might have picked the wrong players? I also don't care what experts thought (and remember those are media experts). Time tells us who was right and who was wrong.

[julio]

Time tells us who was right and who was wrong.

Yeah... and so far, time is telling us that it really didn't matter much who the Phils chose in that draft - look at their performance; there's not a lot of "there" there.

[bigegypt0417]

The phillies had a philosophy at the time and in the weeks following that draft most experts thought they did well.

Are you saying they get a pass because their philosophy was wrong? Not because they might have picked the wrong players? I also don't care what experts thought (and remember those are media experts). Time tells us who was right and who was wrong.

Cool. So in hindsight...you think it was a bad draft.

Do you feel better now?

Some drafts don't work out and that one seems to fit that bill...so far.

It wasn't only writers...it was actually industry people...I would care about their opinions far more than yours. You seem to be selective on the weight you give experts and it always seems to be when they agree with you that their opinion should be listened to.

[andyb]

Yeah... and so far, time is telling us that it really didn't matter much who the Phils chose in that draft - look at their performance; there's not a lot of "there" there.

Though the two prospects most often speculated about that we did not pick are Senzel and Puk. Their development was delayed a year or two in each case by injury or they would likely have had significantly more major league playing time. I would prefer either at the moment. Yes it was a bad draft. But it can also be true that there were better choices available at the top. We could have even tried to save MORE money with our pick to have more money later in the draft. That later part is also part of the failure. Gowdy was mostly bad luck, but I do remember thinking it was a pretty significant overpay at the time for a guy that was rated where he had been rated.

Note also that 2 other top 10 picks, Ian Anderson and Matt Manning are currently rated in the top 50. HS picks of course take time, but they are seen as better picks than Moniak.

[Austinfan]

Hard to pick the right players when the best players go #32, #34 and #66!
It'll probably take a few more years, b/c it looks like some HS lottery picks will be the best picks in that draft.

[zambonir]

Again this seems like a "two things can be true" situation.

Was it a bad draft? Yes.

Is that a significant data point suggesting Klentak has not drafted well? No.

Even if it had been later in his tenure, it's still one draft. Which doesn't mean he's drafted spectacularly overall, but it hasn't been bad either, and results are definitely still incomplete. Especially since his first hire in that department has yet to run a draft.

Not that I'm going to argue we need to see 2-3 years of the Klentak/Barber team to evaluate Klentak, but that is largely moot because he will either lose his job or get a new contract based on the MLB team. And the MLB team probably won't win if his 2017 and 2018 drafts don't play a role.

[Austinfan]

While the 2016 draft was just bad for almost everyone, Klentak may come out OK if Moniak or Stephen turned out to be decent OFs and Romero and Irvin provide LH depth in the pen. But it's not a good draft.

2017 on the other hand, may save his job if Haseley is a solid starting OF, Howard settles into the rotation, and Seabold and/or Jones become a competent 5th starter. Brodgon has a good shot at contributing as a middle reliever, and Dohy and Warren could be shutdown LH RPs if they improve their command. The wildcard is how Ben Brown comes back from TJ surgery, 6'6 210 and coming on before he was injured, but he's a long way away.

2018 is Bohm, but he may be a good enough hitter to carry a draft if he can handle 3B - that gives you quite a lineup to finish this year and in 2021. By the time Simmons and Pipkin arrive, Klentak will either have a long-term extension or be long gone.

[andyb]

MLB.com ranks the Phillies 19th:

Every club's 2020 farm system, ranked

And a Phillies report (nothing really new) along with a Jim Callis video interview:

Phillies prospect report from Spring Training

And a Stott interview:

Q&A with Phillies prospect Bryson Stott

[andyb]

One final prospect list!!!!!

Kiley McDaniel got a late start at ESPN so here is his NL list article. He is more a fan of Moniak and Simmons than some. Donwgrades Morales though.

1. Spencer Howard, RHP, 60 FV (No. 21 in top 100)
2. Alec Bohm, 3B, 55 FV (No. 42)
3. Bryson Stott, SS, 45+ FV
4. Luis Garcia, SS, 45 FV
5. Mickey Moniak, CF, 45 FV
6. Simon Muzziotti, CF, 45 FV
7. Johan Rojas, CF, 45 FV
8. Francisco Morales, RHP, 45 FV
9. Adonis Medina, RHP, 40+ FV
10. Kendall Simmons, SS, 40+ FV

Kiley McDaniel's National League team-by-team top prospect rankings

[zambonir]

How do you pronounce Muzziotti's name anyway? Like "Simon Says" or like "Simone"?