2017 Season Phillies News/Notes/General Discussion

[andyb]

Well they could have spent on both the international market and veterans to trade/flip. Do I think a secondary goal is to have a respectable team? Sure. But the main goal is to use money and not prospects to add these assets.

Klentak should be evaluated on the totality of these moves. While he was 1 for 2 in big signings or trades in 2016 (Hellickson worked out, Morton did not), his grade for 2016 decreases based on not being able to move Hellickson.

2017 is an open book still but we know Buchholz and Saunders are not working out. Hellickson probably not. Neshek and Kendrick might work out. Benoit unclear.

So he gets like a C+ grade for these moves in 2016 and looks to have a similar mixed record this year. This is a strategy that a team with money SHOULD employ. Klentak should be evaluated on how the totality of these moves work.

On Julio's comment about whether they think the overpriced Cuban prospects were worth it - I agree that is part of the underlying reason. I think they are saying that X prospect is not worth $2 million compared to other prospects. What they should be evaluating however is whether spending this $2 million can get them more prospects better than any other strategy of spending $2 million (like on Saunders, etc.)

[julio]

Klentak should be evaluated on the totality of these moves. While he was 1 for 2 in big signings or trades in 2016 (Hellickson worked out, Morton did not), his grade for 2016 decreases based on not being able to move Hellickson.

2017 is an open book still but we know Buchholz and Saunders are not working out. Hellickson probably not. Neshek and Kendrick might work out. Benoit unclear.

So he gets like a C+ grade for these moves in 2016 and looks to have a similar mixed record this year. This is a strategy that a team with money SHOULD employ. Klentak should be evaluated on how the totality of these moves work.

This is where we disagree. You want to "assign a grade" for literally two transactions. My argument is that you can't do that rationally - you don't have enough data. Yeah, you can say after the fact, "one worked, one didn't." But that tells you essentially nothing about the merits of the decisions as made at the time. It tells you nothing about the wisdom of the overall strategy - there's just not enough data to wash out pure luck.

You go on to say "Klentak should be evaluated on how the totality of these moves work." I agree. But if that is your position, why are you positing "grades" on an annual basis? Evaluate overall, or don't. You're trying to have it both ways, IMHO.

[andyb]

You go on to say "Klentak should be evaluated on how the totality of these moves work." I agree. But if that is your position, why are you positing "grades" on an annual basis? Evaluate overall, or don't. You're trying to have it both ways, IMHO.

One needs to start somewhere. Remember I don't go on to say the Klentak is a complete failure at this. But the fact remains he got no prospect value out of these moves in 2016. Add this to 2017 and you do start to get enough data to evaluate this.

A completely separate issue is whether Klentak is able to move other assets (the non flip variety). This includes guys like Rupp and Galvis and Neris last year. I don't attempt to grade those actions though it is definitely worth noting that Klentak was unable to pull off other deals like this last year and in the last offseason. These things are not fatal but they add up.

It sounds like your position is overly specific. It is like you are parsing my comments too specifically and then backing away from any assessment about Klentak overall. Don't you think it is significant that we have been unable to use our money in significant trades and free agent signings to add talent since the Giles trade? The Braves and Padres have been able to do so. Why haven't the Phillies?

[EastFallowfield]

Todd Zolecki (ToddZolecki)

[allentown]

Now, you can argue that the Phils shouldn't undertake to sign/flip veterans for prospects, because of the risk - you can argue that that money should just be spent elsewhere. That seems to be allentown's core argument

No, that's really not my position. I've said in this thread that I really don't care how much money Klentak spends on vet FAs to flip for prospects, IF he also spends aggressively on the other routes to acquire young players. As a minimum, we should have spent 150% of our international allocation. If money is an issue, and I'm not sure that an owner-set budget amount isn't the big issue, then I think150% on international allocation is a more efficient way to add young talent. In any case, The couple $million is almost a rounding error compared to what we spent on vet FA. International over-23s cost more, but I think are greater value than flipping vets. There was a surge of Cubans this past international season. If ownership is able/willing to fund all 3, the vet-flips, the 150% allocation, and some Cubans, then I think Klentak should have done all 3. It's very likely that Klentak skipped the Cubans because he had a hard budget limit and wanted the vets. That would be on Middleton. I really see little possible excuse for not going to 150% of allocation -- that is not big $ compared to the Phillies budget.

Yes, I'm sure that fielding a respectable MLB team was a key goal. If that was a key goal, then Klentak has failed to achieve it and the owners will mark him down for that. I'm surprised that our big league team has done as poorly as it has, but not at all upset to have the 1.1 once again.

I fear that we are in part following the long-time Phillies Way and deciding that having the #6 farm in baseball is good enough. I don't think it is good enough and I don't think it will get us where we want to be. The Braves own the #1 farm in baseball. There MLB team has a .480 winning percentage, compared to our .323. We won't catch them with a less good farm. Yes, I know, TPTB plan to sign a Harper or other super-star FA. With a new stadium, I'm quite sure the Braves also plan a major FA signing to push them over the top. Harper/Trout/Machado/FA ace -- don't bet on them being the Phillies salvation.

[tom81]

There certainly a lot of stories out about the Phillies shopping Franco. I'd certainly make anyone on this team available in the right trade. As to who would play 3b the rest of the way this year and next, one interesting experiment would be Tommy Joseph. Plenty of former catchers have transitioned to 3b over the years and we do have a AAA 1b that looks more than ready to play on the big club. What's the downside to Joseph playing 3b? Who really cares if we lose more games this year and would it really hurt his value if he can't play the position adequately?

Devers or Groome would look good in red.

MLB Trade Rumors: Five fits for Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Maikel...

Trade Talk: Kicking the Tires on Maikel Franco

[Slinging_Southpaw]

I've thought in the past that it would be a smart move to work Tommy Joseph out there, but I can't imagine them pulling that on him in the middle of a season.
He certainly has the arm, but I don't see him as being as athletic as some catchers that have made that transition to 3B. At least, to make the transition quickly.

[Soloman_grundy]

Add Ramos to the "Bob McClure makes me a Worse Pitcher" Club.

[zambonir]

2017 is an open book still but we know Buchholz and Saunders are not working out. Hellickson probably not. Neshek and Kendrick might work out. Benoit unclear.

So he gets like a C+ grade for these moves in 2016 and looks to have a similar mixed record this year. This is a strategy that a team with money SHOULD employ. Klentak should be evaluated on how the totality of these moves work.

I know you don't evaluate GMs on batting average, but I don't know if you should evaluate them like the classroom either. You've got seven players (including Nava), if 50% of them work out (either performance-wise or as trade chips or both) which is a Hall of Fame baseball player but a flunking student, how does that actually compare to most teams/GMs?

[allentown]

In determining how much value to assign to performance, I also look at all the moves as a whole and ask whether or not the GM achieved his intended purpose. Like when we traded for Pence at a point we had the NL East lead basically locked up -- he was acquired to allow us to have a good enough OF to win another WC and to be the younger guy performing well enough to extend the string of winning. We bombed in the playoffs and Pence wasn't good at the start of the following year up to the point he was traded. I view that trade as a failure, not because Pence didn't play very well in the final months of the season in which he was acquired -- he did, but the playoff goal was missed and Pence was not good the next year.

Applying that to this year's moves. The goal was to add vet talent to make this year's team respectable and then to flip that talent for prospects. Part one of the goal, regardless of some of the guys performing reasonably well, was not even close to being met, because the Phillies are very far from being respectable. So, no credit from me for part one and all of the value of the $65 million spent on these acquisitions needs to come from the value of the flipped players. Kendrick has played well when healthy, but is now hurt again.

[Austinfan]

Meh, basically you have to see if the moves were reasonable.
None were clearly bad when made, no serious resources were expended, and while Buchholtz and Saudners were fails, Kendrick, Nava and Neshak clearly made this team better.
What they'll garner in trades is a matter of both luck (having a team willing to overpay due to injury or anxious management) and skill.

I think people are overreacting to this season, while team performance has regressed, it's primarily due to really bad bullpen play (compared to Gomez pitching over his head last season).
Even there, by September it won't surprise me if they've settled into a group of young arms (Morgan, Pinto, Neris, Ramos back, Therrien) that will provide a core group for next year to be complemented by low cost veterans.
The young starters have struggled because Lively and PIvetta really should be pitching every five days in Lehigh, Eflin struggling off knee surgery, Nola working his way back to form.
Eickhoff is the only real disappointment, he took a step back. Velasques has always been a question mark and I think his future is in the bullpen.

Some players struggle, some progress. Galvis has improved as a hitter, and if this continues, who cares about Crawford. Franco has been coming around, the talent is there, the approach needed fixing. Herrera is a unique talent, but talent is the operative word. Altherr is essentially a rookie and he's made nice adjustments, but still has a way to go to be consistent. Knapp is up and down, but a switchhitter has a bigger adjustment to ML pitching. Given the Lehigh lineup, in a couple years they should have a pretty good ML lineup, while a few will fall short, enough talent is available that some will rise to the challenge and be the foundation of a deep lineup.

The problem is it takes about 3 years to integrate a young group of players, take Carlton off the 1972 Phillies and they might have been as bad as the 1962 Mets, four years later they were a playoff team.
I think this is similar to 1995-2000 when the Phillies went through a long stretch of futility - after looking like they were moving forward, they went 65-97 in 2000. And between 2001 and 2011, they had only one season with less than 86 wins.
The refusal to start rebuilding after 2013 has extended this rebuild by at least two years, otherwise next year would probably be the start of a streak of winning seasons (fifth year of the rebuild).
We're in the 2nd season (the first full season was last year as the rebuild didn't really start until July 2015). So forget about 2013-2015 in terms of years of futility, that was the mistakes of the old regime.

Next year we'll have a lot of new faces, by 2020 they'll all be experienced veterans. So some point between 2018 and 2020 the "light will go on" and they won't be a sad sack team anymore.
And one advantage of this short-term setback will be another draft with a high pick and a high 2nd rd pick. Which means additional talent after the big wave hits the beach.
It won't be driven by FA acquisitions, but by young players hitting their stride, and hopefully a judicious trade or two (see Arizona).
Once the team starts winning, at that point you look for the FA player or two to take them to the next level.

[California_Dreamin]

AF...when I read your posts, while I admire the optimism, I remain convinced we are watching two different teams. To suggest that the youngsters on the Phils have not regressed is to me simply ignoring the obvious. I know this much...I do not want Peter Mac and McClure anywhere near the current batch of minor leaguers making their way through the system, not since the late 80's have I seen such a large contingent of such seemingly promising kids regress like this current group has done. Its downright pathetic.

Let me see if I can name the players who have gotten WORSE since being exposed to the Mac Brothers in Crime. Rupp, Neris, Ramos, Morgan, Eichoff, Velasquez, Nola, Franco, Herrera, Thompson and I KNOW I am missing a few since its early here in SoCal and I am just waking up. Look at this list, it should be an embarrassment to both of the Mac Pack, there is real talent here that is being wasted and going backwards.

Now I fully acknowledge that I got my Phillie roots on Gene Mauch and am prejudiced. I also acknowledge that he often overmanaged. That said, it was a veritable cornucopia of youngsters that he nurtured and made better....Dalrymple, Mahaffey, Short, Bennett, Culp , Baldschun, Cater, Taylor, Rojas, Wine, Amaro, Allen [learned to play 3rd base under Mauch], Callison, Gonzalez, Johnson, Briggs and Wise. And this was merely from the years '62-64. Everyone of them became major leaguers under Mauch and all were better for the learning and teaching they got.

I believe that the real story of the 2017 Phillies is not their record, not their chase for the #1 draft pick and not their ability/inability to make trades when the trading is good. Its the seeming crash and burn performances of players with very real ability. I believe the veterans like Nestek and Benoit see this and thats why they are resistant to whats going on here.

I honestly think the very future of the Phils is hanging in the balance right now and if the Mac Brothers in Crime are around past this year I will be convinced that the Phils have yet another ineffective of good ole boys ruining the franchise. I hope I am wrong.

[nycphils]

Normally I'd be very dismissive, although at the moment I'd note that the Braves are ready to experiment with Freddy Freeman at 3B to get Matt Adams' bat in the lineup (which strikes me as nuts on a couple of levels) so maybe it isn't such a crazy idea for someone like Joseph (who's no Freeman).

[nycphils]

I really can't see trading Mikel at the trough of his value, and history shows that young players can be very up and down (at the hot corner especially for some reason - see Beltre, Aramis Ramirez, Moustakis, etc.)

I also thought this was interesting analysis from one of the articles above:

Despite what his ugly 2017 stat line might suggest, Franco presents one of the more valuable all-around skill sets in the league. Last year, the third baseman was one of just 23 players in Major League Baseball who posted an above-average strikeout rate, an above-average ISO mark, and a positive runs total on defense. Of those, only four were Franco’s age or younger: Mookie Betts, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and Corey Seager. That’s pretty good company.

This year, Franco’s contact skills have taken another step forward, as his strikeout rate has fallen to a decidedly impressive 13.8 percent. This has coincided with a five-point drop in his chase rate (to 29.3 percent) and a 2-point drop in his swinging strike rate (to 9.7 percent). Unfortunately, it has also been accompanied by a career-low .226 BABIP and a large drop in both ISO rate and exit velocity. The end result is fairly simple to see: a young player likely worrying too much about bat control and thereby limiting his ability to hit balls hard.

[Austinfan]

I think this is part of Franco's development, and I think Stairs is doing a great job with him.

Pitchers adjust to batters, and they've been getting Franco out with low and away sliders, like a lot of young Phillies hitters, they wait on FBs and any pitcher who can throw a breaking ball or changeup can get ahead in the count. Altherr gets fooled a lot, but also adjusts well, some of the other hitters don't seem to figure out what pitchers are doing to them.

Stairs wants Franco to lay off pitches he can't handle, and if they pound the outside corner, take it to right. And he's been doing this, but it's not second nature, he'll have a great AB followed by rolling over an outside pitch to SS. It takes time to relax and understand what the pitcher is trying to do to you, and to have a plan and follow it confidently. I think Franco can eventually put it together, but the idea that being disciplined takes away your aggression is nonsense, the point of being disciplined is not to draw walks (a side benefit) but to work an AB to get a pitch you can hit, and attack that pitch. Where the Phillies young hitters get it wrong is they are overgeared to swing (the Krukster has pointed this out repeatedly) and swing at a pitch they can't handle instead of focusing on the pitch they should be looking for - so they sit on a 2-0 FB and swing even though it's a curveball (where they should just take it and make the pitcher throw a strike). This is all part of the learning curve, some climb it, some don't. I think Franco is climbing the learning curve, he's just a slower learner than Altherr.

And then there's Herrera, who's probably uncoachable to some extent, but if you could cut back on the moving parts and get him to have some semblance of a plan, his natural talent will do the rest.

[andyb]

While one of the goals of adding veteran talent was to make the team respectable before flipping them, let's be honest - the real problem with this team has been the young players not getting better (echoing CD's point now that I read his post). And it is almost all of them:

Herrera, Franco, Rupp, Joseph, Velasquez, Nola, Eickhoff, Ramos, Neris, Eflin - all of these young players regressed (a couple because of injury but most because they may not be as good as they seemed last year).

Altherr improved and that is about it. Cesar was steady but got hurt. Galvis was steady but is really not that good in the first place.

I thought this team would be better because the young players would improve. By and large this has not happened. This is a piece that has not been Klentak's fault though the one place that could be argued is whether he should have flipped some players last year like Neris and Rupp when they had more value than they do now. Herrera and Franco SHOULD be better now than they are though and that is not really Klentak's fault.

It is also a little simplistic to say that Stairs is helping Franco. Franco has done worse under Stairs. It is equally possible that Stairs has messed up Franco's swing and mindset. All hitters are not alike. There is no one approach that works for everyone.

[Austinfan]

Franco's problems began last year:
Post all-star break - .238/.286/.351/.637
This year - .221/.282/.365/.647

So it's not like Stairs took a player in a groove and messed him up, Franco was already "broke."

I think there's definitely a learning process going on for some players.

Joseph had a horrid April, great May, back to earth in June, he's no longer an "unkown," pitchers have a book, he's learning how to hit on the fly. Still chases too many breaking balls in the dirt.

Galvis hit well in April, but only 2 walks, got more disciplined in May but had a horrid month, put it all together in June and is having a great month. And this progress may not merely be a fluke, in his three years as a starter, .645, .673, .710 OPS (so far this season). If Stairs can keep him focused on contact, line drives and keeping his swing compact and under control, he may not be finished develping.

Herrera had a great start last year, then pitchers caught up, post all-star break - .277/.337/.411/.748
April was like his 2016 second half, horrid May, then red hot June. He still chases too many bad pitches, if he could just lay off pitches that are obvious balls, the sky's the limit.

As far as Rupp, i'd send him to an eye doctor, he's not seeing the ball, there's something wrong there that I suspect is physical.

Aging player department, Blanco is at the end, when veterans lose bat speed they start guessing more, and swing at bad pitches b/c they commit before they see the pitch.

[Philsmania]

AF...when I read your posts, while I admire the optimism, I remain convinced we are watching two different teams. To suggest that the youngsters on the Phils have not regressed is to me simply ignoring the obvious. I know this much...I do not want Peter Mac and McClure anywhere near the current batch of minor leaguers making their way through the system, not since the late 80's have I seen such a large contingent of such seemingly promising kids regress like this current group has done. Its downright pathetic.

Let me see if I can name the players who have gotten WORSE since being exposed to the Mac Brothers in Crime. Rupp, Neris, Ramos, Morgan, Eichoff, Velasquez, Nola, Franco, Herrera, Thompson and I KNOW I am missing a few since its early here in SoCal and I am just waking up. Look at this list, it should be an embarrassment to both of the Mac Pack, there is real talent here that is being wasted and going backwards.

Now I fully acknowledge that I got my Phillie roots on Gene Mauch and am prejudiced. I also acknowledge that he often overmanaged. That said, it was a veritable cornucopia of youngsters that he nurtured and made better....Dalrymple, Mahaffey, Short, Bennett, Culp , Baldschun, Cater, Taylor, Rojas, Wine, Amaro, Allen [learned to play 3rd base under Mauch], Callison, Gonzalez, Johnson, Briggs and Wise. And this was merely from the years '62-64. Everyone of them became major leaguers under Mauch and all were better for the learning and teaching they got.

I believe that the real story of the 2017 Phillies is not their record, not their chase for the #1 draft pick and not their ability/inability to make trades when the trading is good. Its the seeming crash and burn performances of players with very real ability. I believe the veterans like Nestek and Benoit see this and thats why they are resistant to whats going on here.

I honestly think the very future of the Phils is hanging in the balance right now and if the Mac Brothers in Crime are around past this year I will be convinced that the Phils have yet another ineffective of good ole boys ruining the franchise. I hope I am wrong.

While Wathan strikes me as a winner, I am not sold on the supporting staff of minor league coaches. It is clear to me that fundamentals are not being taught and there is a trend of top prospects getting exposed at AAA and finding themselves downgraded to mid level prospects and/or having to spend multiple seasons at that level in the hope that they can figure things out (Williams last year, Crawford, Thompson and Alfaro this year).

I am not sure if firing Mackanin will do any good at this point. Plus, Klentak would have to eat a huge serving of humble pie, deserved or not. But, hopefully, after the season he and pretty much the rest of this coaching staff outside of Stairs and the not-terribly-relevant bullpen coaches. Reassign Bowa to Green's old Senior Advisor gig and let the rest go.

[allentown]

Galvis hit well in April, but only 2 walks, got more disciplined in May but had a horrid month, put it all together in June and is having a great month. And this progress may not merely be a fluke, in his three years as a starter, .645, .673, .710 OPS (so far this season). If Stairs can keep him focused on contact, line drives and keeping his swing compact and under control, he may not be finished develping.

SSS data picking at its worst. Lots of players have a good month. It seldom means a turn-around. Let's see how he does for the rest of the year, before talking about what Stairs has done for him.

[Philsmania]

Galvis is the right shortstop on the wrong team. Put him on a team with a potent lineup with shortstop issues that can carry his bat and he just might be a Gold Glove winner.