2017 Season Phillies News/Notes/General Discussion

[Austinfan]

There was no point trading Hellickson unless you got close to 1st rd value, otherwise the option value of keeping him (and not having to rush young pitchers) was greater than a 2nd or 3rd tier prospect.

The reason for signing Morton and Buchholtz was again, you have to pitch someone, and you'd prefer not to be forced to pitch young pitchers who could use a full AAA season to develop. Anything you get in trade is a bonus.

Guys like Neshak, Benoit are bullpen helper, if we get anything for them, great.

Galvis and Rupp were probably not going to land you top 100 prospects last year, teams were uncertain whether they were for real, if Stairs can work with them and they improve over this season, their value will be a lot higher this offseason, if not, nothing lost in any case. And with Crawford struggling, Galvis just may be our SS of the future.

We haven't given any talented players away, and we haven't locked ourselves into expensive long-term deals for players like Desmond. It's a lot easier to trade Kendrick in July than Desmond and a big contract. If Sanders doesn't turn it around, you can just put him on waivers when you think Williams or Pullin are ready to come up. I'd like to get something for Hellickson, but if we keep having pitchers go on IR, we may need him to eat innings just to get through the season without killing our young RPs.

[David_Criss]

If teams were lining up for Hellickson, he would have had a multi-year deal and not returned with QO. The Phillies thought teams wanted him in July and would pay, they thought again in October that teams wanted him and he would sign.

The QO this year will be north of 17 mil and I don't think he will get one, so look for him to be traded for something in the next seven-weeks as opposed to seeing him leave for nothing.

[DurhamBull]

For those who want to trade Hernández because Kingery will take his place in a year, are you not afraid that Kingery might stumble in his development as Crawford has done? Who will play 2B until Kingery arrives, which might be never? I understand that there's no reward without risk, but trading away the leadoff hitter that us phans have wanted for years would be a tough pill to swallow.

[Austinfan]

Which is why you give Hoskins a full year in AAA and Kingery at least half a season before making any moves.
There is no need to rush into a trade, the clock on a prospect doesn't start ticking until they get to the majors, and extra time in AAA helps a hitter adjust to the higher proportion of secondary pitches he'll see in the majors relative to AA ball.

[allentown]

I'm not of the view that we must trade Hernandez. I do believe he has significant value. No, I'm not afraid of a Kingery flop next season. The reason I'm not afraid of it is that the Phillies have fully demonstrated to me that they don't plan to contend in 2018, so what does it matter if we have a not quite as good 2018 2B, if we get a very good future player for Hernandez?

[andyb]

If teams were lining up for Hellickson, he would have had a multi-year deal and not returned with QO. The Phillies thought teams wanted him in July and would pay, they thought again in October that teams wanted him and he would sign.

The QO this year will be north of 17 mil and I don't think he will get one, so look for him to be traded for something in the next seven-weeks as opposed to seeing him leave for nothing.

Without the QO Hellickson would have had lots of 3-4 year offers. Not for $17 million though and teams are hesitant to give up the draft pick. Hellickson would have gotten 4/55 without the compensation. He just is in the middle ground talent wise where the QO hurt his value.

I don't think they are allowed to offer a QO this time around.

[Philsmania]

I personally like Klentak alot but for a guy who really has been as consistently wrong as he has, he does seem to get a free pass. We'd be killing Amaro for being this wrong I think.

1. You can say that each of Buchholz and Morton and Saunders were good gambles but all three look like just a lot of money flying out the window. I know the hindsight is 20/20 but Klentak would be taking a victory lap if even one of them had worked out and they were all expensive misses.

1. Kendrick (right now) and Hellickson have I guess sorta paid off but if the goal of those two was to improved the current ML team I'd point out that the team is in last place and so it was wasted money. If the goal was to flip them into pieces in the future then at best its an incomplete until we see whether we actually do that at the deadline.

1. Hellickson was not traded at last years deadline because we "knew" we could get a 1st round pick for him by offering the QO. So we held on to him. And he accepted the QO (and lets be clear, the Phillies were shocked that happened). He's been OK but I don't think he's a 17 million per year pitcher.

1. Klentak was at least involved in the decision to "re-do" the Giles trade in essence trading Derek Fisher and Jonathan Arauz for Mark Appel. That decision doesn't look too good right now.

1. Klentak (or the TPTB) decided that the Phillies should be one of the only dozen or so teams that NEVER broke their International Pool and then the system changed out from under them (like the other teams anticipated it would).

Maybe all those were completely rational decisions at the time but they all worked out against rather than for the Phillies. Klentak gets paid to have things work out for the Phillies. This is an outcome determined industry. So yeah, I do kinda resent that the Philly media seems to be lecturing the fans for having the temerity to be second guessing a GM who doesn't seem to have "won" alot of decisions yet or at the very least has definitely "lost" enough to not be covered in teflon.

That's a pretty damning indictment.

[Lawman]

The only moves I give Klentak a flyer on here are Morton and Bucholtz. You can't predict injuries.

[allentown]

Technically speaking you can't predict injuries, but often you can assign relative probabilities to their likelihood. Bucholtz was a bad bet. He's missed a ton of starts in his MLB career and the last two seasons has thrown 113 and 139 IP. Worse, between 2015 and 2016 his walk rate doubled, while his strikeout rate dropped by a quarter. That's a red flag warning of possible trouble ahead. Certainly no guarantee that you won't get 150 mediocre innings from his, but he looks like a significantly higher than normal risk of injury or a further drop in performance.

[Austinfan]

Nola had a heck of a game, his velocity is definitely up, his changeup is improved, his curve is good,
Needs to keep sharpening his command, but he looked like prime Nola tonight.
One puzzling thing, his 2 seamer doesn't have that good movement and command that allowed him to make a living on the outside edge of the plate before he was injured. That may be part of the tweaks he has to make with what seems to be a slightly adjusted pitching motion (longer drive, which may explain the velocity uptick).

[VoteForKalas]

Technically speaking you can't predict injuries, but often you can assign relative probabilities to their likelihood. Bucholtz was a bad bet. He's missed a ton of starts in his MLB career and the last two seasons has thrown 113 and 139 IP. Worse, between 2015 and 2016 his walk rate doubled, while his strikeout rate dropped by a quarter. That's a red flag warning of possible trouble ahead. Certainly no guarantee that you won't get 150 mediocre innings from his, but he looks like a significantly higher than normal risk of injury or a further drop in performance.

Thank you - this constant pass we give the Phillies on injuries is silly. Injury histories are tracked and evaluated as part of every transaction for very good reasons. They provide important context that is ignored or overlooked at a team's peril.

[David_Criss]

Kingery is looking great, but it is at AA. I thought he'd get bumped up when Valentin went down. It might be nice to have he and Crawford playing together if they are the future 2B/SS combo, but they are letting a journeyman in Florimon fill in at 2B. This is curious imo.

The hope we heard this Spring was Crawford would be knocking on the door now and then the Phillies would decided between Glavis or Hernandez for 2B.

That isn't happening.

[zambonir]

Clearly they don't feel the need to rush Kingery just because the spot is open. I think they feel the same way about Hoskins even though he's also blocked. I think that will change at the halfway point. They are going to get their time together (since Crawford isn't rushing off to the majors either). Still think it might be overly optimistic to slot Kingery there next Opening Day, even if Hernandez is traded.

Thank you - this constant pass we give the Phillies on injuries is silly. Injury histories are tracked and evaluated as part of every transaction for very good reasons. They provide important context that is ignored or overlooked at a team's peril.

But these injury probabilities weren't ignored or misevaluated. They were built into the acquisition price of both players, who still offered an upside (in terms of performance as well as potential trade value) you wouldn't have gotten from a Sean O'Sullivan or Jerome Williams type, while still being on one-year deals. If Klentak wanted a healthier or better pitcher for that veteran depth, he would have had to give up more talent (or money/years via free agency). Had he not signed Bucholtz they would have gone with Adam Morgan, or Eflin or Thompson, neither of whom were healthy at the time (nor, apparently, ready). It was a calculated (call it predictable) risk that, even with the same result, would have ideally bought them two months not two weeks.

[Austinfan]

I think Hoskins will spend the year in AAA ball, not because he isn't ready, but because they need to play Joseph everyday.
The Phillies will almost certainly trade one of them in the off season, and either Joseph shows so much improvement he stays, or has a good enough year to increase his trade value (i.e. 30-35 HRs, .800+ OPS, which might not be enough to stay over Hoskins!).

I suspect Kingery will get promoted toward the end of June, again, they're in no rush, even a half year at Lehigh won't be enough to force a trade of Hernandez unless he repeats his Reading performance.

Pullin may also have to wait until July, at which point I think the Phillies trade a few veterans and bring up Williams (I don't think Cozens gets promoted, he has too much to work on, and Quinn needs to improve contact) if he builds on his fine May performance. That opens a spot for Pullin in LF. Perkins is also a candidate to be promoted, he's shown a lot of improvement this season and they may bring him up as an award. and Stassi will be brought back if Saunders is traded/cut.

[Austinfan]

Eflin OK, Quinn not.

Phillies health check: Zach Eflin's elbow checks out fine, Roman Quinn's does...

I hate to say it, but I'm writing off Quinn as a viable prospect. He's one of the most fragile players I can remember, and I can't see him as more than a 4th OF at this point, b/c you can't trust him to stay healthy.
Good thing Tocci has stepped up and Moniak is in the pipeline, with Herrera and Altherr, CF is not an issue.
And potential corner OFs are lining up, Cozens, Wiliams, Pullin, Randolph, even Tromp and Hector Rodriquez.

[California_Dreamin]

AF...writing off Quinn, which I don't necessarily disagree with, but then saying "no problem, we have X,Y and Z" is precisely what those of us who are criticizing the front office are pointedly suggesting when we say that you MUST continue to build up talent and never be satisfied.

My sense is that Klentak and Co. may see things exactly as you do. Well, Quinn may be done but heck, we have Tocci, Mocci and Focci, so we are still OK. Ahhh, no! Because history shows that the odds are that Tocci and Mocci will derail somewhere along the way up the Big League Road and Focci may become no better than a 4th outfielder.

Meanwhile other teams are continually building the pipeline with prospects and while some won't make it, 1-2 will and the pipeline continues. While you mention some names that are intriguing, what strikes me most of all is that we have been talking about the same names for several years and other than Moniak none of the names are new.

[Austinfan]

CD, we're drafting 8th this year, we're probably picking in the top 5 next year, for all the complaints about LA, we spent all our money and spread it around to a lot of prospects (including 4 in the top 50 and a bunch of next tier guys), both Lakewood and Clearwater are over .500. So I think the supply of talent into the pipeline is pretty steady.

My point is that it's a position (CF) where we're fortunate enough to have depth at the ML and minor league level. We're not going to be stuck with Ben Revere in CF for a while.
I'd be more concerned if it was Stobbe, the only 3B prospect in the system, or Grullon, the only viable catcher below AAA right now.

While Quinn has a unique talent (plus plus speed), I felt he was 500 PA from learning how to make consistent contact to take advantage of that skill. I really didn't see him competing for a job until next year, with a 50/50 shot of making the team. Now he may be shut down for the year and it remains to be seen what his recovery schedule will become.

[phillychuck]

Quinn, once again, should try to get a lot of ABs in winter ball. If he's recovered by then. At least he doesn't throw LH.

[julio]

Interesting.

Todd Zolecki (ToddZolecki)

DFA, even though the Phils have options on Rodriguez. Means they wanted to open a roster spot for somebody not currently on the roster. I guess we'll find out who, tomorrow.

[California_Dreamin]

My guess...Venditte, but Milner is an outside possibility. Why I believe its Venditte? Because LHV had a double header tonight, used 3 different relievers in winnable games [in fact they did win both!] and Vinditte didn't pitch in either game.

Which is why I doubt its Milner. He pitched brilliantly tonight, but toiled 2.1 innings of shutout ball, striking out 5. Had the Phils planned on bringing him up tomorrow my guess is he either A]would not have pitched tonight or B] pitched only 1 inning.

That said, considering how poorly Morgan is pitching I would not be surprised if both Venditte and Milner made their way to Philadelphia within a couple of weeks.