2017 Season Phillies Discussion (News/Notes, etc.), continued

[andyb]

So it comes down to basically all the experts out there are wrong and you of course are correct? And it is a hidden advantage to have a 91 mph fastball that is below average these days?

Interesting theories. And there are definitely pitchers that throw 91 that are good pitchers. Just no guarantee a AAAA guy like Leiter becomes any good. We don't need any lectures on why pitchers can win with modest velocity, multiple pitches, and command. The guys that throw 91 usually don't win that way though. They lose (which is why most are AAAA pitchers or never make the majors at all).

[David_Criss]

I remember when many posters on this board and others salivated about bringing Kerrigan on as pitching coach. When he finally arrived with a lot of fanfare, he was a big bust.

I think Rheal Cormier would disagree with that

[allentown]

The lower velocity FB guys can win, but they need great command/control. That's why they are so inconsistent, with a good game followed by an awful one. It makes them the definition of a #5/6 starter. We've won with guys like this on our golden era teams. Moyer, though very much on the downside of his career, was better than a #5, but that's rare. I don't know ho

[andyb]

I just don't count on them. Depth is great. We'll get a few good pitchers out of all the guys that throw 91. Maybe Eshelman's command will make him a 4. Just not counting on it. I just think it is pretty clear that we don't have anyone other than Nola in the majors or high minors outside of Kilome (who probably needs 2 more years) that really profiles as a number 3 or better.

[andyb]

Interesting take on Morgan here from Matt Winkelman. Even with the increased velocity his fastball is still not a good pitch for him (though it helps the change). Conclusion is he is still more of a lefty specialist than a late-inning option:

Crashburn Alley – What Is Going On With Adam Morgan?

[Austinfan]

Moyer was in his own world.
Kendrick was 89-90
Lee was between 91-92 in his peak years
Hamels was a tick below 91 in 2008-09, then his velocity jumped to over 92 in 2010
Blanton was 89-90
Worley was 90
Halladay was 92 most of his career, but was still highly effective in 2006-07 when his velocity averaged barely above 91
Happ was 90 with the Phillies, gradually rose over his career to where he's now 92-93 (see this with a number of pitchers, velocity rising as they physically mature and perfect their pitching mechanics)
Myers was 91 when he started out, fell to 90 in 2008 and 89.3 in 2010 (best season of his career)

Pitching leaders:

Last year (30) SP over 93, (14) 92-93, (11) 91-92, (9) 90-91, (8) <90 - 74 total that qualify, 48 over 92 MPH.

Under 90: outside of Dickey, Weaver (0.0), Fister (1.1), Iwakuma (2.4), Tomlin (1.0), Estrada (3.0), Hendricks (4.5), Kuechel (2.7), [2.1]
90-91: Straily (1.1), Davies (2.7), Colon (2.9), Fiers (1.8), Wainwright (2.9), Hellickson (3.2), Smyly (2.0), Maeda (3.2), McHugh (3.1) [2.5]
91-92: Shields (-1.1), Garcia (1.2), Miley (1.5), Nolasco (2.6), Eickhoff (2.9), Leake (2.5), Bumgarner (4.9), Pomeranz (2.9), Teheran (3.2), Tanaka (4.2), Santiago (0.5) [2.3]
92-93: G Gonzalez (2.8), Sabathia (2.7), Porcello (5.1), Lackey (3.1), Odorizzi (2.1), Quintana (4.7), Cueto (5.5), Hammel (1.5), Happ (3.2), Kennedy (1.6), Bettis (2.5), Finnegan (0.3), Koehler (1.1), Tillman (2.4) [2.8]
93+: Lester (4.3), Roark (3.2), Graveman (1.7), Kluber (5.1), Santana (3.2), Sale (5.1), Hamels (3.0), Moore (2.3), Price (4.4), Stroman (3.6), Liriano (0.5), Perez (1.9), Nelson (0.7), Rodon (2.6), Volquez (1.4), Arrieta (3.8), Verlander (5.2), Bauer (2.7), Samardzija (2.7), Archer (3.2), Scherzer (5.6), Ray (3.1), Sanchez (3.9), Duffy (2.7), Gausman (3.0), Gray (3.6), Fernandez (6.2), Ventura (2.6), Martinez (3.3), Syndergaard (6.4) [3.3]

Under 90 MPH (average) it's really hard to be a ML starting pitcher, it can be done, but it requires exceptional command and/or secondary pitches, that's why I use it as the "Mendoza" line for pitchers.
90-91 are mostly #3 to #5 starters, you can make it work but there's a limited margin of error, which is why I use 91 MPH as the cutoff, below that it's hard to be a consistent ML starter
93+ is where the majority of top starters are located, which isn't exactly a surprise, but 11 of 30 were less than 3 WAR, so it's no guarantee of excellence.

Pivetta averages 94.6, Velasquez 94.2, Eflin 93.7, Nola 92.4, Lively 91.6, Thompson & Leiter 91.3, Eickhoff 90.4

[Austinfan]

He's working on a 2 seamer that tails away from RH hitters, saw a couple last night that were solid, and one that was absolutely wicked.
If he gets that working consistently at 96, with a changeup that sinks, he can use the slider as a "show me" pitch and high four seamers against RH pitching and be effective.

[nycphils]

Things are looking a lot better on the position player front than anyone could have expected, I just don't think there's necessarily a correlation (or causation) between the W-L record and the current quality of the team overall

You may be right - some of it is luck, as represented by one run games.

11-25 at one point, 7-7 since then.

Still, I think the offense is showing reasonably. The SP is of course lousy overall.

[andyb]

93+ is where the majority of top starters are located, which isn't exactly a surprise

Talk about a long list that makes my point. And the top pitchers who do not throw 93+ tend to have more developed secondary pitches than our group.

I don't why you go through such painful machinations to prove a point THAT NO ONE DISPUTES. There are always good pitchers who throw only 91. What is also true though is that most pitchers who throw 91 do not become good pitchers. So when you are 90-91 you have a tiny change of becoming a number 3 or better. A small chance of being a number 5. And a really good chance of being a AAAA pitcher.

[nycphils]

nteresting take on Morgan here from Matt Winkelman. Even with the increased velocity his fastball is still not a good pitch for him (though it helps the change). Conclusion is he is still more of a lefty specialist than a late-inning option:

Been saying this one for a while - if they limit him to mostly LH, he will be an effective contributor. However, still struggles vs. RHP. .918 OPS

[Florida_Sunshine]

Good information AF, thanks for taking the time.

I started taking a look at teams in contention, and if we can add another top of the line P, I am pretty comfortable with getting 3 P's out of our pipeline.

[nycphils]

93+ is where the majority of top starters are located, which isn't exactly a surprise

Talk about a long list that makes my point. And the top pitchers who do not throw 93+ tend to have more developed secondary pitches than our group.

I don't why you go through such painful machinations to prove a point THAT NO ONE DISPUTES. There are always good pitchers who throw only 91. What is also true though is that most pitchers who throw 91 do not become good pitchers. So when you are 90-91 you have a tiny change of becoming a number 3 or better. A small chance of being a number 5. And a really good chance of being a AAAA pitcher.

I appreciate the evidence based approach on this one - proving conventional wisdom has value too. I thought this board appreciates evidence over assertions.

[nycphils]

Seeing that Sabathia still throws 92-93 mph makes me think he's definitely a guy to throw a 1 yr/$25m or even a 2 yr/$40-45m contact this offseason.

He's not great (4.37 FIP in '17, will make about 25 starts but only throw about 150 IP), but there are a dearth of attractive short term options.

[Austinfan]

Most pitchers who throw 95 don't become good pitchers, bullpens are full of these guys.
That's because most pitchers, even top prospects, either fail to develop command, secondary pitches or burn out their arms.

The point which you try so hard to ignore, is that a pitcher who averages 91 MPH has more than enough velocity to become a dependable ML starter, it comes down to other factors.
Below that level the odds are stacked against you because you have have both plus secondary pitches and plus command, which is rare.
Hard throwers have different issues, a lot are max effort guys who pound FBs and blow out their arms, and many are resistent to coaching b/c they've relied on the FB to get to the Show and are scared to throw secondary pitches.
Hard throwers who develop consistent mechanics, secondary pitches and command are rare, but their upside is higher because of velocity.
The Phillies aren't excited by Sixto because he hits 100, so does Tirado, they're excited because he shows the potential of being a guy who consistently throws in the mid-90s with command and secondary pitches.

A number of the Phillies pitchers will uptick in velocity over the next couple years, Lively, Eflin to me are good bets, maybe Thompson - this is pretty common among young pitchers if they avoid shoulder issues.
The real key is who will make the changes in grips and mechanics to take their game up a level.
We're already seeing that with Morgan, first he upticks velocity, then he refines his changeup and slider, now he's working on a 2 seam FB.

Unfortunately, the only way to identify the guys who'll make the adjustments is to throw them out there and see who swims - and those adjustment are why it often takes 2-3 years for a young starter to find his groove.
But the best evidence that a pitcher has that potential is doing it at the ML level, if you do it a couple times, you can be taught to do it on a regular basis.
So Velasquez showing dominance has made the Phillies patient with his development even though he's the most inconsistent pitcher on the staff.
All the current pitchers have had stretches in AAA and/or the majors where they show what they could be if they fixed some issues.

Minor league performance with young pitchers has to be taken with a grain of salt, for example, the Phillies often have a young pitcher limit their use of their best pitch to force them to develop other pitches, that's going to hurt their numbers but help their development - someone like Pivetta could completely dominate in the minors off his FB, but he's going to hang curves for a while - but you prefer he hang them in AA and AAA ball.

[Florida_Sunshine]

While on pitching, I thought I read somewhere that Halliday was working with our young pitchers in spring training. I would hope the Phils would put him in more of a year round advisory role.

[bkox]

I would hope the Phils would put him in more of a year round advisory role

He may not want a larger role. He seems to have fun flying his planes, rescuing animals and living life.

[California_Dreamin]

bkox...you are correct. Halladay is enjoying retirement, coaching his kids, has no desire to be away from them for a season. But he does help in Clearwater and in spring training.

[zambonir]

You may be right - some of it is luck, as represented by one run games.

11-25 at one point, 7-7 since then.

Still, I think the offense is showing reasonably. The SP is of course lousy overall.

That certainly syncs with my anecdotal experience of the season, that they were winning a few more of those games (and were IN more games, even in the tail end of that 11-25 stretch maybe?).

I don't remember this being a very happy board the first two weeks in August. But then Hoskins came up and they are 8-7 beginning with the salvaging of the SF series. Before that, August record was 4-13 and we were talking about the manager again.

[bkeich]

I honestly wish they would post velocity with more information, because velocity data alone paints the wrong picture. What matters is the ability of a pitcher to not have hitters square up on their fastball, and velocity data does not show that at all.

A pitcher that averages 91 but has a high variance in the data (ie throws between 94 and 88) is much better than a guy who consistently throws 92. Mixing up speeds and changing movement makes fastballs effective, speed helps but ML hitters can hit straight fastballs up to about 102 with little trouble.

Give me swing/miss data and hard contact data over raw velocity any day

[Austinfan]

Fansgraph has that data, including effectiveness of each pitch, and separation of types of FB.
Just have to scroll down the pitcher's page.