2017 Season Phillies Discussion (News/Notes, etc.), continued

[zambonir]

I still don't see how you use a 40-man spot on Florimon or Kelly though (especially if Valentin and Quinn remain on it as well). You can always sign a guy like that to a minor league deal.

[Austinfan]

That would explain inconsistency throwing the curve and command issues, but not the drop in velocity.
I'd shut him down and have the shoulder checked as a precaution.

[David_Criss]

Kelly, Blanco and Nava don't start either game. hmmmm. I'd say Florimon has surpassed Kelly for the 2018 utility role..

[allentown]

Seems a little fast for a definitive diagnosis. Have they done an mri of elbow, looked at shoulder? In industrial illnesses, like carpal tunnel syndrome, nerve problems in the hand originate in the elbow or shoulder over 90% of the time.

[andyb]

Darvish is not "very durable"

This is just wrong. Darvish pitched 182+ innings in Japan every year from 2007-2011. Then in the majors he has pitched 191, 209, 144 in 2/3 of a season, 100 in half a season, and 160 so far this year with 6 or 7 starts left.

Darvish has basically had one major injury, TJ surgery that happened in the middle of one season so it affected his innings in 2 years. But otherwise has been pretty healthy. Even the recent DL stint was the Dodgers using the new 10-day DL rule to get their pitchers extra rest late in the year.

I know you like to craft narratives in your head to fit your positions, but let's stick to the facts. Darvish is a pitcher that has had 11 full seasons with 180+ innings likely (assuming this year) in 9 of them and 1 injury that prevented him from reaching that level in the other 2.

That is a durable pitcher plain and simple. Lynn has shown durability too in every year other than the one he missed with surgery. He is among the more durable starters as well.

It is a different argument to make that any age 30+ pitcher is an injury risk. That is mitigated by the Phillies having enough extra money where they are in a position to take that risk.

And my question about how you would realistically use the team's financial resources to make it better remains unanswered.

[bkeich]

Freddy, you have been selected as the utility man.

Hernandez is gone by 2019 I assume.

[andyb]

This is just plain weird with Floriman. Hasn't their staff at Lehigh Valley evaluated him all year? And aren't utility infielders like him kind of a dime a dozen?

This organization does not seem prepared to decide who should start for them at 2B or SS or 3B in the future. It is like they know Crawford and Kingery are probably the right long term decision and they can't come to grips with that.

[David_Criss]

Why didn't they just call Florimon up instead of claiming or trading for Kelly?

[Austinfan]

Because they probably wanted to see Floriman play on a regular basis.
He has some ML experience.
Played full time in 2013 with a .611 OPS, too low to start in the majors.
Has gradually improved as an AAA hitter, and has looked OK in his cameo.
Like a number of utility players, he may hit OK in a part-time role but not full-time.
He can play a lot of positions and is a good fielder at most of them.

You're not looking to stash a young promising player in that role, Gavlis for example will start or be traded.
Floriman gives you someone who can play anywhere if needed, and if his offense has risen a bit, like Blanco, he'd be a solid bench player.

Decent bench guys are hard to find, good enough to contribute, but not good enough that they won't walk in free agency.

[LA_s_Shallow_Thought]

Let's say the Angels do decide to blow it up and trade Trout. If it's non-negotiable, do you absorb Pujols' entire contract with him if it limits the return to 2 of Williams, Kingery and Tocci?

[bkox]

Let's say the Angels do decide to blow it up and trade Trout. If it's non-negotiable, do you absorb Pujols' entire contract with him if it limits the return to 2 of Williams, Kingery and Tocci?

Well first stumbling block. Pujols would want to come here. He has a full no trade clause. I cant see him agreeing to a trade to the NL. Hes only played 1B 6 times this year. So this is a moot point. Hes not going to agree to a trade somewhere to be a bench player.

[zambonir]

Future Phillies pitcher Andrew Cashner is red hot in the second half of the season. (Hell, he has a 3.7 WAR, he might be rising to the upper FA tier.)

[schooldoc]

The Angels' owner does not want to trade Trout and besides, they are right there in the AL wild card race.

We're going to have to wait until December 2020 to get our shot at Trout.

[mdougherty12]

Future Phillies pitcher Andrew Cashner is red hot in the second half of the season. (Hell, he has a 3.7 WAR, he might be rising to the upper FA tier.)

Cashner has fairly ugly peripherals this season, though. 69 K and 49 BB in 133.2 IP. He does get ground balls at a decent rate.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

I think the upside to Kelly besides his versatility was his remaining option.

[Austinfan]

If the Phillies turn it around, it's not going to be through FAs, and probably not trades (though a couple good trades would help).
It's going to be the guys we've been watching this year plus a couple others in the high minors:

2019 potential Phillies:
C: Rupp/Alfaro/Knapp
1B: Hoskins
2B: Hernandez/Kingery/Valentin
SS: Galvis/Crawford/Mora
3B: Franco/Walding (trade?)
LF: Williams/Pullin/Tromp
CF: Herrera/Quinn/Tocci/Coppola
RF: Altherr/Cozens
By 2020 Randolph, Moniak, Haseley and Hall will be knocking on the door.
Question will be which players are traded, which players flop, which players settle in for 5-6 years.
By 2019 this could be a very good, deep lineup. The big question mark is Franco at 3B and no viable replacement.

SP: Nola, Eickhof and Pivetta, Eflin, Lively, Leiter, Eshelman, Kilome, Thompson, Anderson, El Garcia, Irvin
RP: Neris, Garcia, Ramos, Rios, Velasquez, Therrien, Arano, Rivero, Waguespack, Sanchez, Morgan, Milner, Singer, Davis
I think Velasquez is headed to the bullpen after next year.
There's going to be a "package" deal 3 or 4 for 1 for a solid SP, just to clear out the logjam by 2019.
There will be another deal involving Hernandez/Galvis, for a 3B or SP.
Rupp will probably stay for stability and to give Alfaro time to grow into the job, with the 40 man logjam, he has more value handling the young pitching staff (unless you pick up a veteran C).

When the turnaround comes, it will be very fast, a couple young pitchers will turn the corner, a trade will bring in a SP and suddenly there will be a solid rotation, same with the bullpen.
On the field, after growing pains in 2018, a set lineup in 2019 will be in the top third in runs scored in 2019.

Kingery/Hernandez (this is why Kingery should start in AAA to work on his plate discipline, as a leadoff hitter he needs his OBP > .350)
Crawford
Altherr
Hoskins
Williams
Herrera
Franco [trade]
Rupp/Alfaro

[allentown]

It's just about the same list you always post. I always look at it and conclude 'not nearly enough pitching and we need a 3B'. That's still my view. We need to add talent from outside the organization. I don't think it's the case that we just wait for these guys to grow into MLB pitchers. I think some will, but a lot of guys on your list looked a lot more promising to me last year and the year before than they do now -- I think they've been regressing, either talent or injury. If this can turn around quickly with a young pitcher turning it around and adding a pitcher from outside (I think we likely need 2 SP and 2 RP from outside) then let's do it now, this off-season and be a better than .500 team next season. If, as you say, we already have most of a good starting lineup, then it behooves TPTB to add pitching and possibly a 3B and start going for it. This is especially true if we are willing to assume/gamble that Eickhoff and Velasquez will be healthy for next season. Why wait and use up prime years for a basically good lineup? I agree the offense would be reasonably good now if we had our injured OFs back. We are in really bad need of pitching, and I admit to thinking we also need a 3B and have none in the organization.

[Austinfan]

We can live with Franco batting 7th for a few years, we survived Bell! An upgrade would be nice, but it's not a priority.
I think a trade for a SP is in the works, and signing a patch SP as well as a couple veteran RPs.
I also think a couple young SPs will turn it around next year, they got rushed a little but learned what it takes to succeed at the next level.

Don't think Velasquez will ever make it as a starter, Pivetta on the other hand, is a good candidate to wake up one morning, have the light go on, and become a dominant pitcher.
Velasquez is both inconsistent and fragile, and would be better protected in the pen where he just has to work on one secondary pitch. Pivetta is a horse and just needs confidence and polish.
I want to see Eflin after a strong offseason conditioning program and work on his mechanics to use his legs.
Guys like Lively, Leiter, Thompson, Eshelman, I just want one to turn into a consistent back of the rotation starter.

I remember when the Phillies would have one or two young pitchers each year in camp, and we'd pray they'd work out.
There is safety in numbers. We have so many young pitchers coming up a couple are almost sure to make it.

[allentown]

I"m sure SP will be added. I think they need to be better than the past 4 medium-priced guys. From Burnett to Hellickson, we paid for 5 years of SP at not insignificant $, and got 1 year of good pitching and one year of fair-poor pitching for that investment. That simply isn't good enough. If we don't do better than that this winter, then we should expect another Phillies lineup to be dragged down by bad pitching.

[Florida_Sunshine]

I think we need to prepare ourselves for a scenario where we are not able to fill all of our short term needs this winter. If there is no worthy SP that we should give a 4 year contract to, we should allocate that money to our other needs, 3B, RP, potentially C. There may be better SP candidates next offseason. As has been pointed out very clearly by others, the rebuild is going well (forgetting about how long it took to get here) and we are getting closer to where we can really spend money that other clubs are unable to. I would also expect the Phils are looking at doing something similar to what the Yankees did with prying Sonny Gray away from the Athletics. Should be an interesting summer....