2017 Season Phillies Discussion (News/Notes, etc.), continued

[California_Dreamin]

Not me. Baseball is becoming a hitting game and good young lefty hitters are tougher to find than pitchers. While I like Cole, I think a good solid pitching coach could find a way to turn around at least a few of Thompson, Eflin, Pivetta, Leiter, Velasquez, Lively, Eshelman and a couple of others.

Williams may well become the best asset acquired in the Hamels deal, the Phils acquired Williams for a Cole and I don't want him sent away for another Cole.

[LoneStarPhan]

Including Altherr and/or WIlliams in a deal for Cole would, IMO, indicate that the organization goal is to return to mediocrity, not become a championship level team.

[California_Dreamin]

Yep! Finally this team seems to have a core of good hitters and I don't want ANY of them moved...not Hoskins, not Williams, not Altherr, not Alfaro, not Herrera, not Crawford and not Kingery.

[bkox]

I'd be willing to trade Williams.

I just dont see why so many seem to be down on Williams. Hes now played almost 1/3 of a seasons worth of games and has a 848 OPS and the 3rd highest OBP on the team that has at least 200 PA. Heck only Altherr has a higher OPS this year. ANd it seems like we just consider him a throwaway.

IMO Williams/Herrera/Altherr has the potential to be a very potent OF with all 3 able to be above 800 OPS. Especially with Hoskins in the lineup possibly providing some protection

[California_Dreamin]

Agreed. Williams has done everything he needed to do to become successful and is hitting well. The Phils finally have an outfield they can dream over [not since Burrell, Vic and Werth] and are in a position to consider guys like Cozens and Tocci as re-inforcements instead of key pieces. This is a good thing.

Also, Williams seems to have fit in well with this group and its worth noting that the Phils are 20-21 in their last 41 games, not exactly SSS and Williams has been a huge part of that, we were excited about his hitting when Hoskins was still in the minors.

No way I move him for a pitcher, no way.

[California_Dreamin]

And Cole is represented by Scott Boras, no longer the anti-Phillie agent of yore, but still a guy who likes his players to test free agency.

[andyb]

I was just playing devil's advocate and saying who I would ask for if I were Pittsburgh. This is part of the reason Darvish or Lynn is a good fit. No trades of young, controllable major leaguers. The one exception to the rule is Cesar. We SHOULD be looking to trade him because he has significant value now.

The Dodgers traded a top 100 pitcher in Jose De Leon for Logan Forsyth. Cesar is potentially better than Forsyth because he is a little younger. And we could easily set our sights on acquiring a young, veteran 3rd starter type that might make decent arbitration money rather than a top 100 prospect.

[bkox]

J.P. Crawford "Certain" to Be Promoted in September

[EastFallowfield]

Tonight's game rained out, "single admission" double header tomorrow at 12:05

[Austinfan]

I would build a great lineup before I'd build a pitching staff.
For one thing, hitters are more durable, so once you have a solid group (really six above average starter guys) you can always carry two guys and gradually replace your core six over a five year period or so.

Pitchers are just not dependable, and I think it's gotten worse as velocity has risen, look at Lincecum and Cain on SF breaking down after two post-extension seasons. SF won 3 WS because they were able to patch around their aces collapsing with guys like Vogelsong, Hudson, Peavy and Zito. But when they won their rings, they always had a deep bullpen that could pick up the slack.
So to me, you get a couple core starters and patch around them, a deep bulpen is more important in this day and age, because if you have a deep pen you can start a few guys who just have to get through a lineup a couple times (i.e. 5-6 innings). And you always invite numerous veteran arms to ST, hoping to luck out with the next Vogelsong.
It's why you constantly restock your minor league system with arms, you don't need a lot of mediocre position players, but mediocre pitching prospects can provide long relievers and back of the rotation starters when pitchers inevitably break down.

[nycphils]

I was just playing devil's advocate and saying who I would ask for if I were Pittsburgh. This is part of the reason Darvish or Lynn is a good fit. No trades of young, controllable major leaguers. The one exception to the rule is Cesar. We SHOULD be looking to trade him because he has significant value now.

The Dodgers traded a top 100 pitcher in Jose De Leon for Logan Forsyth. Cesar is potentially better than Forsyth because he is a little younger. And we could easily set our sights on acquiring a young, veteran 3rd starter type that might make decent arbitration money rather than a top 100 prospect.

I think the bigger issue in the return for Cesar is that 2nd base is a position with a lot of talent around the majors, especially contenders. There are around 17-18 2nd basemen in MLB with a roughly .760 OPS or better and around 200 ABs or better,

I could see a deal for Fullmer in Detroit for Cesar or Galvis, Quinn or Tocci, Kilome, Pivetta

[allentown]

Williams is not a guy I'd be anxious to trade, but for the right young pitcher, with years of team control, yes I would trade him. I value him below both Altherr and Odubel. We've got more OFs on the way and although we also have pitching on the way, I am pessimistic about building a good enough staff internally.

As I said earlier, we have an abundance of $ and salary cap space, which is why I want to target Darvish and Lynn (yes, better if no QO, but still better to lose the draft pick than to lose serious prospects). If the Phillies follow the "Phillies pattern", they will trade for a good pitcher, rather than splurging in the FA market. If they do that, and again not my choice, Williams is among the guys I would consider trading. If you can get the guy you want (which I think would be a bad contract guy, not Cole or Bumgartner) for a combination of guys from among guys like Galvis, Hernandez, Rupp, Joseph, Quinn, Morgan, Thompson I'd do it of course, but that's pie in the sky, you just won't get Bumgartner or Cole for that.

[allentown]

I would build a great lineup before I'd build a pitching staff.
For one thing, hitters are more durable, so once you have a solid group (really six above average starter guys) you can always carry two guys and gradually replace your core six over a five year period or so.

Pitchers are just not dependable, and I think it's gotten worse as velocity has risen, look at Lincecum and Cain on SF breaking down after two post-extension seasons. SF won 3 WS because they were able to patch around their aces collapsing with guys like Vogelsong, Hudson, Peavy and Zito. But when they won their rings, they always had a deep bullpen that could pick up the slack.
So to me, you get a couple core starters and patch around them, a deep bulpen is more important in this day and age, because if you have a deep pen you can start a few guys who just have to get through a lineup a couple times (i.e. 5-6 innings). And you always invite numerous veteran arms to ST, hoping to luck out with the next Vogelsong.
It's why you constantly restock your minor league system with arms, you don't need a lot of mediocre position players, but mediocre pitching prospects can provide long relievers and back of the rotation starters when pitchers inevitably break down.

This is a post which I find strange.

You don't win without good pitching. Yes, hitters are more durable, but if you just have hitters you aren't going to win.

You talk about SF patching around their aces with Zito and Peavy. Those guys aren't exactly dog food. The Giants gave Zito a $133 million FA contract a decade ago. It was the largest contract for a pitcher in MLB history at the time it was signed. That was HUGE money back then, probably comparable to $250 million in today's baseball $. So Zito is really an example of what you are suggesting we should not do, not an argument for his position.

[Austinfan]

Zito was dog food, expensive dog food but none the less mediocre at best.
They kept him around because of his contract.
Point is even though he was mediocre, he was still useful b/c they had a deep bullpen that could win games as long as he lasted 5 innings.

If you can hit, you don't need great pitching, see the Phillies in 2008.
You do need a great bullpen.
The problem with building around pitching is it simply doesn't last more than a couple years, see the Mets.
Which is why you should pay for hitters, and building a bullpen is relatively cheap (now that almost no RPs garner comp picks!).

I think the best way to build pitching is to build the kind of depth where you can keep young pitchers in AAA ball for two years while they perfect their craft, keep the clock from starting until they're ready to win at the ML level.
Then keep recycling young arms as they break down.
If you can find one or two solid durable (which is more important than quality, no one won a game on IR) pitchers to anchor your rotation you're in good shape.
How many FA pitchers, even the top dollar guys, have provided 3 years of top flight pitching?
If you're giving 5 year deals to pitchers who only last 2 years, and 7 year deals to pitchers lasting 3 years, that's not a good long-term strategy.

[tom81]

Scherzer's 7 year $210 million deal at age 30 looks like a great deal for the Nats 3 years in.

[Austinfan]

It's about the only big money deal for a pitcher that has worked out so far.
But he had an exceptional track record of durability going into the deal, which started at age 30.
Six years of 32 starts, I don't know if he missed a single start during that stretch.
We'll see how far into the deal he lasts.

But guys like Carlton, Schilling, etc., are unusual.
Someone like Darvish is a far greater risk to break down.
And younger pitchers tend to throw harder than they did a decade or two ago, shortening their expected longevity.

[andyb]

No, about half of the contracts for really good pitchers work out. Cole Hamels deal is looking just fine for instance. Zach Grienke is putting Arizona in the playoffs this year.

You just don't get that it does not matter if the Phillies pay $12 million per WAR on one of these deals. They might have to overpay a bit to add WAR. But our starting pitching is just terrible now and our one unused resource is money.

How again are you going to use the team's financial resources to make it better?

[allentown]

You just don't get that it does not matter if the Phillies pay $12 million per WAR on one of these deals.

And what is also missed is that the Phillies actually paid $15 million per war on their four major trades/FA SP signings from Burnett to Hellickson. The deals for the lesser starting pitchers on shorter contracts are cheaper in total $, but cost the same or more in $/WAR as the price for better pitchers. This is the reverse of how it should be, because better pitchers are rarer and have a greater impact, because of larger deviation from average, so $/WAR should increase as the WAR/player increases (also true since you can only play 9 guys at a time). A +1 WAR player is below average, so 5 players at +! WAR are not the equal of a +5 WAR player. The +1 WAR guys are pretty close to 'fungible' territory.

[Austinfan]

Problem is there are no "5 WAR" pitches out there this year.

Darvish was 2.5 (BR) last year, 3.5 this year, what should be the expectations for the next three years? The only time he was over 4 WAR was 2013.
Lynn 3.7, 3.5, IR, 3.2. He'll be 31 next year.

So we're looking at probably 3 WAR if they're healthy, 0 or negative WAR if they blow out their arms.
That's just not a needle mover.

[EDmuch]

The one thing that makes me hesitate is that it really is a lousy crop of UFA pitchers this year. Darvish is the best I guess. But boy would we have to overpay to get him. Arrieta has pitched really well since the beginning of July. But i have seen quotes form him that he wants another "ring". Taht sounds like a guy who intends to pitch for a contender.I am most inclined toward Lynn, but I see little chance that the Cards won't QO him.