2017 Season Phillies Discussion (News/Notes, etc.), continued

[nycphils]

It's a lot cheaper to retain customers than it is to recruit new ones. The Phillies are losing customers.

When the Phillies win - whether that's next year, 2 years or 5 years from now - the Phans will fill the ballpark as they always have. Winning draws customers - whenever it happens. Maybe half a season lag if the rebuild flounders, but that's it.

[Austinfan]

Hoskins is already changing the perception, nothing like a "star" (see Embiid) to get fans excited.
To me this last year was more like the 1972 Phillies, which was a horrible team, carried by Carlton.
In 1973 they won 71 games as the rebuild took hold, but attendance stayed flat, it started rising in 1974 when they won 80 games.
That team already had Boone, Montanez, Cash, Bowa, Schmidt, Luzinski, Carlton, Longborg and Ruthven - it was obvious they were on the rise.

Attendance was flat from 1996 through 2002, even though they won 86 games in 2001.
The years of losing wore people down, but also that team had Lieberthal (30), Rollins, Rolen, Burrell and Abreu. Wolf, Padilla and Mesa were teh pitching staff.
I suspect fans saw more of a patch job than a rebuild.
Fans got excited in 2003 when they won 86 games again, when they added Thome, Polanco and Byrd.The pitching was still bad but the team could hit.
Attendance would rise each of the next four years, despite treading water, 86, 86, 88, 86, adding Howard and Utley in 2005.

I think what drives attendance is not so much winning, but the expectation of winning, that is, when they see enough talent on the team that they can dream.

[bigegypt0417]

Middleton/McPhail/Klentak need to have a better off-season than last year or we will see more record low attendances -- and not just 'in the last two years' records. It's a lot cheaper to retain customers than it is to recruit new ones. The Phillies are losing customers.

The youth coming up next season will already make it a better off-season. Kingery, Crawford and maybe Alfaro behind the plate full-time will give them a young team people will have to be patient with.

[bigegypt0417]

Leiter is a smart, polished pitcher with mediocre stuff. Just don't make him into anything he is not.

I agree - can't see his realistic role as more than long man/spot starter. However, there is real value in performing reasonably well in that role.

Agreed. I think the point is ignoring his resume pretty much points to what you're saying and that he isn't all of the sudden going to become something he's never shown he could be.

[Philsmania]

Hoskins is already changing the perception, nothing like a "star" (see Embiid) to get fans excited.
To me this last year was more like the 1972 Phillies, which was a horrible team, carried by Carlton.
In 1973 they won 71 games as the rebuild took hold, but attendance stayed flat, it started rising in 1974 when they won 80 games.
That team already had Boone, Montanez, Cash, Bowa, Schmidt, Luzinski, Carlton, Longborg and Ruthven - it was obvious they were on the rise.

Attendance was flat from 1996 through 2002, even though they won 86 games in 2001.
The years of losing wore people down, but also that team had Lieberthal (30), Rollins, Rolen, Burrell and Abreu. Wolf, Padilla and Mesa were teh pitching staff.
I suspect fans saw more of a patch job than a rebuild.
Fans got excited in 2003 when they won 86 games again, when they added Thome, Polanco and Byrd.The pitching was still bad but the team could hit.
Attendance would rise each of the next four years, despite treading water, 86, 86, 88, 86, adding Howard and Utley in 2005.

I think what drives attendance is not so much winning, but the expectation of winning, that is, when they see enough talent on the team that they can dream.

By the time the 2001 season rolled around, the Phillies were pretty much dead to Philadelphia. There were many reasons. Thirteen out of fourteen losing seasons from 1987-2000 created a legitimate perception of incompetence. The perennial shoestring budgets said the organization didn't care about winning. The protracted comedown from the sugar high of 1993. The strike. The PR buildup to the 2000 season which ended up being the worst Phillies season since 1972 and which saw Schilling throw in the towel on the organization. In 2001, not only did their attendance only top the perennially attendance-derelict Marlins and Expos in the NL but working in and walking around Center City, I never saw people wearing Phillies stuff. It took years (and the Thome signing) to turn things around attendancewise. Here in 2017, Phillies attendence is not good but I still see plenty of Phillies apparel around town so I think people want and are waiting to be turned on to them.

[zambonir]

I heard/read somewhere that the Phils are basically auditioning Florimon for the play-anywhere-on-the-diamond role for 2018. My guess is that he'll make us nostalgic for Andres Blanco, but that's more a comment about how Blanco has exceeded expectations than a knock against Florimon. Blanco joined the Phils at 30 and had his best years with them. It seems like he's regressed to more of what I expected him to be, but only after putting up a .740 OPS off the bench and playing reasonably well anywhere the Phils put him.

It's only a utility role, but Blanco filled it well. Florimon has big shoes to fill in that regard.

Is it possible the only place you read that was here, in a post by Austinfan?

It's rare the Phillies have devoted a 40-man roster space to that utility guy, Blanco being a rare exception who nevertheless started on two seasons of minor league deals. I can't imagine them using a 40-man space (or paying an arbitration-eligible salary) to Florimon next season, he'll be released or non-tendered. If the Phillies did manage to trade some of their middle IFs or Valentin isn't in the mix he could always come back.

What Blanco did was rare but the Phillies also never had another good bat on the bench as a result. They carried Jimmy Paredes last year and Ty Kelly this year as their utility guy and slotted Blanco more as a top PH and back-up 3B who could also play anything else. Next year they'll be better off with an actual good LH-hitting 3B/1B on the bench, and your traditional light-hitting back-up SS (assuming it isn't one of Crawford, Hernandez or Galvis in that role).

[andyb]

Current BR WAR Rankings with more than 80% of the season completed:

Herrera 2.7
Hernandez 2.4
Altherr 1.6
Rupp 1.4
Hoskins 1.4
Galvis 1.2
Kendrick 1.2
Nava 1.0

Others: Knapp 0.2, Williams 0.0, Franco -1.0, Joseph -1.1

Observations: Hernandez has slipped a bit and now maxes out as a 3 win player. Galvis will be in the 1.5 range most likely. Rupp has actually been the one to add value. Seems hitting 8th with less pressure might be helping him. There is a case to trade all 3.

Franco and Joseph have been really bad. Mediocre offense paired with below average defense is never a good combo. There is a case to cut bait with both as each has little value. Of course that would open up a 3B debate and I could easily see the club sticking with Galvis and putting Crawford at 3B because he probably can't be any worse than Franco.

Williams has had decent offense paired with bad defense so far. The CF starts probably have not helped but he should be able to be average defensively from his scouting reports. This is definitely something to watch as a better defensive player like Quinn or Tocci might be better than Williams as long as they have a 700-750 OPS.

[allentown]

The youth coming up next season will already make it a better off-season. Kingery, Crawford and maybe Alfaro behind the plate full-time will give them a young team people will have to be patient with

I have very little doubt that the Phillies will field a good/interesting lineup next season and that will certainly stoke some renewed interest. Unfortunately, unless the pitching is significantly improved, we are looking at a ton of losses on days Nola doesn't start. I have no interest in adding position players over the winter, but would like to see at least one (preferably 2) good SP and a reliever or two.

[tom81]

Observations: Hernandez has slipped a bit and now maxes out as a 3 win player

WAR is a counting stat. Hernandez' 2.4 WAR comes from 98 games so that works out to a 4 WAR player if healthy the whole season.

[tom81]

I have very little doubt that the Phillies will field a good/interesting lineup next season and that will certainly stoke some renewed interest. Unfortunately, unless the pitching is significantly improved, we are looking at a ton of losses on days Nola doesn't start. I have no interest in adding position players over the winter, but would like to see at least one (preferably 2) good SP and a reliever or two.

I would really like them to get 1 good SP, 1 good 3B, 1 good closer, and one good set up RP, preferably a lefty.

[EDmuch]

Between Morgan & Milner we may have the lefties we need in the Pen. I could see them going with Neris for another year as closer. Focus should be on getting at least one good starter to pair with Nola at the top of the rotation.

[bigegypt0417]

The youth coming up next season will already make it a better off-season. Kingery, Crawford and maybe Alfaro behind the plate full-time will give them a young team people will have to be patient with

I have very little doubt that the Phillies will field a good/interesting lineup next season and that will certainly stoke some renewed interest. Unfortunately, unless the pitching is significantly improved, we are looking at a ton of losses on days Nola doesn't start. I have no interest in adding position players over the winter, but would like to see at least one (preferably 2) good SP and a reliever or two.

I'm almost positive you will get your wish on the SP's.

[andyb]

I am a little uncertain they are going after "good" starting pitching. They definitely dropped a signal that they would add some to reporters in the last week or two but they also alluded to more 1 or 2-year stopgaps. Which means either a 3rd tier free agent starter or a trade for another Hellickson/Buchholz type.

I think they need to set their eyes a little higher on the quality scale but they have yet to send that signal out.

[nycphils]

Is it possible the only place you read that was here, in a post by Austinfan?

You guys are so eager to disagree with anything AF says...this was in a Philly.com article this morning, that Florimon and Valentin would be contenders for the UT job filled by Blanco the last couple years.

[Austinfan]

I prefer to look at both FG and BR, there is no evidence that either WAR measure is superior to the other.

Herrera 2.7/2.5
Hernandez 2.4/2.5
Altherr 1.6/1.4
Rupp 1.4/1.1 [288 PA]
Hoskins 1.4/1.4
Galvis 1.2/1.5
Kendrick 1.2/1.1
Nava 1.0/0.9
Knapp 0.2/0.7
Williams 0.0/0.6
Blanco -0.4/-0.5
Franco -1.0/-0.8
Joseph -1.1/-1.1

Nola 3.9/3.6
Eickhoff 1.3/2.0
Lively 0.5/0.4
Velasquez 0.4/0.1
Pivetta -0.8/0.5
Leiter 0.5/0.0
Eflin -0.2/-0.2
Thompson -0.4/-0.4

Neris 1.5/0.9
Garcia 1.4/0.8
Ramos -0.2/0.7
Morgan 0.3/0.1
Milner 0.6/0.0

I'd go with the current team, and work in Crawford and Kingery next year, depending on trade offers. Both might be better served starting in Lehigh, Kingery to work on plate disciline, and Crawford b/c he's slumping again (.184 his last ten games) and may not be ready for prime-time.
Florimon is auditioning for Blanco's role as the "do everything" utility man, Alfaro, Knapp, Florimon, Kelly and ??? (Stassi, Perkins, bring back Nava, sign a veteran journeyman)
I'd want to bring in one veteran starter to go with Nola and Eickhoff, let the young pitchers compete for two spots and the loser pitch every five days in Lehigh.
I'd want to bring in two veteran RPs and let PInto, Therrien and Rios start in Lehigh next year.

[nycphils]

I agree they are send signals for stopgaps like Trevor Cahill, but if I were thenPhils I think I'd try to sign one of Lance Lynn or Jaime Garcia to a 4/5 year deal - I think it would be worth taking the pressure off the young guys for a few years.

The other thing I'd do would be to gamble on Pineda - sign him to a cheap 2 year deal with a third or even fourth year option at market rates and gamble on his recovery from TJ surgery. He's still only 28, his FIPs in prior years indicated he was pitching fairly well and he'd be a solid back end guy with big upside for 19-21/22. THATS something worth gambling our money advantage on. If he doesn't recover, cut bait after '20 when we might start needing the $8-10m it would cost in the first couple of years.

[andyb]

I prefer BR to FG. Fangraphs uses synthetic measurements like FIP too much which don't account for what actually happened on the field for better or worse. Those metrics might have predictive value, but they don't do a good job of showing who was better in any one season.

And I'd prefer to trade Hernandez and Galvis because we have young players who have a higher ceiling AND we can trade Hernandez and Galvis for a pitcher or two that might address that giant weakness in the team.

[andyb]

I agree they are send signals for stopgaps like Trevor Cahill, but if I were thenPhils I think I'd try to sign one of Lance Lynn or Jaime Garcia to a 4/5 year deal - I think it would be worth taking the pressure off the young guys for a few years.

The other thing I'd do would be to gamble on Pineda - sign him to a cheap 2 year deal with a third or even fourth year option at market rates and gamble on his recovery from TJ surgery. He's still only 28, his FIPs in prior years indicated he was pitching fairly well and he'd be a solid back end guy with big upside for 19-21/22. THATS something worth gambling our money advantage on. If he doesn't recover, cut bait after '20 when we might start needing the $8-10m it would cost in the first couple of years

I have no problem on one of those gambles as long as we add a more sure thing in front of them. We'll have to overpay but we have the money to do so. The one downside with Lynn is that he will likely get a QO. That is part of what makes Darvish attractive (no QO).

[nycphils]

I just think Darvish will be too expensive for too many years. When the team is good in a couple years (hopefully), they will have room for 3 or 4 $25-35m guys max. I'm hopeful that at least one or two of them is Harper/Machado/Trout/G. Cole/Bumgartner etc. Nola will likely end up being in the $15-20m area to buy out FA early. I just don't think Darvish will be good enough for long enough to tie up the money with him. YMMV, since...who really knows?

[andyb]

just think Darvish will be too expensive for too many years

But the difference in the financial calculations is that the alternative may be leaving the money in the owner's pocket. They can either front load any deal or plan financially that even in 6 years it is not a problem. We actually have room for 5 or 6 guys making big money in 6 years. Salary cap most likely in the $225 million plus range by then and we still have the prospects of most players on the current roster not needing big money. Nola might very well be a $25 million player at that point. Not sure anyone else we have would though. Maybe Crawford. If Hoskins needs $25 million in his 3rd arbitration year that is a good problem to have. It is just hard to see how we get up to $225 million even if we set aside $60 million annually for 2 players not here yet.

It does not have to be Darvish, but they really need to find a way to add a top arm and I would prefer to do it with minimal prospect cost.