2017 Season Phillies Discussion (News/Notes, etc.), continued

[VoteForKalas]

The Phils have brought in older pitchers the last few years and it has been mostly a failure.

Hellickson
Buchholz
Morton

Is the scouting the problem or are they playing in the kiddie pool for talent?

My opinion has always been that the Thome signing was overblown as far as impacting the organization, but it did signify the Phils were serious about improving the club and investing in the future.

I think they need to stop nibbling around the edges and get serious: when they are ready, they need to bring in the best talent available and overpay if they have to. Spend the money necessary to build a long term winner and that is NOT just on the field. The scouts, coaches, data analysts, trainers - everyone needs to be top notch. Build a sustainable winning culture based on results.

I'd give this mgmt regime 2 more years tops to prove themselves. If they continue to tread water, I go a different direction.

[andyb]

Those moves were not mostly a failure in that they all cost nothing but money and prospects that won't show up in anyone's top 30 or even top 50.

More money equals better quality.

[bigegypt0417]

Hoskins, Williams, Kingery, Crawford, Altherr, Nola (and Hernandez and Galvis and Herrera). I think it is ridiculous to say we are in a rebuild where we are not making any progress.

We don't often agree but this I agree with you 100% on this.

[allentown]

Doesn't make sense to pay big money for a 2018 performance that may not last past 2020.

Why not? It is only money and spending it on a SP FA now will not constrain us in any way going forward. We expect to be a .500 team in 2019 and a contender in 2020, so the guy can help in serious years. He can also make next year's team respectable, giving a better atmosphere for the young position players and a better chance to succeed for the bullpen. I still don't understand why you are so determined to save money now. It is the one resource we have in abundance and IMHO spending for serious FA pitcher beats the 100+ million we spent in the last several years for not very much at all.

[phillychuck]

You're too pessimistic on Hernandez--he was a 4 fWAR player last season, and should end up around 2 fWAR this year. That's certainly a major leaguer. Rupp is a major leaguer as well, with 3 consecutive years between 1 and 2 WAR.

[allentown]

His criterion was 'quality major leaguer' not 'major league player'. I agree with you on Hernandez, but 1-2 WAR/year does not a quality major league player make, so for me Rupp misses the cut.

[andyb]

In terms of young players I am actually divided on whether Kingery or Hernandez will be better. Cesar is underrated and his defensive metrics are still decent (though not quite as good as last year). I feel good saying Crawford should play SS. Alfaro is still a good gamble at catcher based on the age and ceiling of his competition. It is a little harder to be sure that Kingery will be better than Hernandez.

Of course Hernandez has more trade value than Galvis or Rupp, so the decision on who to play at 2B could easily revolve around what we could trade Hernandez for.

[nycphils]

Hoskins, Williams, Kingery, Crawford, Altherr, Nola (and Hernandez and Galvis and Herrera). I think it is ridiculous to say we are in a rebuild where we are not making any progress.

We don't often agree but this I agree with you 100% on this.

Even being very conservative, there seems no question that Herrera, Nola, Hoskins and Altherr are true building blocks. The list of possible building blocks is really long...

[Slinging_Southpaw]

I couldn't disagree more. The pieces are coming together. Wins and losses is the last place you'll see progress.
Patience

[allentown]

Huh? BE said exactly what you said, before you disagreed with him.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

On post 342 he said "We don't often agree but this I agree with you 100% on this."
Agreeing with EDMuch that we aren't making progress. I don't agree with that.

[kikutaro]

Agreeing with EDMuch that we aren't making progress. I don't agree with that.

Actually, I believe that EDmuch was saying the exact opposite of that.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

I see it now. I stand corrected.

[bkeich]

You're too pessimistic on Hernandez--he was a 4 fWAR player last season, and should end up around 2 fWAR this year. That's certainly a major leaguer. Rupp is a major leaguer as well, with 3 consecutive years between 1 and 2 WAR.

I am not saying they are not major leaguers, in fact I stated that I would trade Hernandez because I thought he had the highest value of the guys who look like their job is in jeopardy, but also I think he really would be very unhappy as a UT. Galvis is a better fielder and I think probably better suited to a UT job because of that. I just hate to see us hold on to Hernandez and see his value shrink as his arbitration numbers go up. If we know that Kingery is the future, even if it isnt until 2019 then it makes sense to me to make the move as soon as possible to maximize the return (and also to save a roster spot).

Rupp is pretty much the same argument in a way, I think his age makes him the most likely to get moved and we need to move one of our catchers this offseason. Sending Knapp to be the starter at AAA is a poor use of an asset. Alfaro can't be sent down next season without losing him, so unless one of them has a near-entire-season injury something has to be done. Rupp to me is the logical one to move.

I didnt say they werent major leaguers, just that they were not guys that you can really improve the team with. Hernandez is just in a tough spot, because we expect Kingery to take his job and there just isnt anywhere to put him. Rupp falls victim of numbers of catchers at higher levels and since his clock has progressed the furthest he is the one I would like to move.

[bkeich]

On post 342 he said "We don't often agree but this I agree with you 100% on this."
Agreeing with EDMuch that we aren't making progress. I don't agree with that.

I think it is me that made the "we arent making progress statement" that you are referring to.

Where is the progress? If we discount rookies because they are still in the SSS there is very little progress.

Rupp: I think there is some progress, certainly offensively, but talk on this board is always that he is well below average defensively, and I do see that to a degree.
1B: Joseph: No progress, some regression to more like what we expected.
2B: Hernandez: No real progress this year, he was better last year but he was also hurt.
SS: Galvis: No real progress, his defense is better, his offense is stable at below average
3B: Franco: Don't look it is horrible
LF: Williams: Small sample size
CF: Odubel: I will call it a flat line, he was our best player in last 2 years, then at the start of this year he looked like he was heading down with Franco, now he looks like Ted Williams, albeit a comic version of him at times He isnt progressing, but really he doesnt have to.
RF: Altherr: Was making progress then hurt. If he can stay on the field he is an asset, but he isnt doing that particularly well.

SP: Nola, no doubt he is making progress. He looks even better than in 2015.
Every other pitcher: Either regression, strong regression or rookie. Absolute disaster.

All of the things that people would call progress (Williams, Hoskins, various relievers and starters) are guys that have very little time in the majors. They havent proven that they can sustain this and too often the first part of a ML career is so much better than later. I don't call this progress yet, but I hope.

The guys that have been in the majors are mostly regressing or holding steady, and holding steady is the worst team in the majors the last 3 seasons.

There are players in the minors that are making progress (Kingery, etc.) but the success rate of going to the majors is not good, especially with this team. For every player making progress there are at least 2 (Thompson, etc.) that were thought to be part of the future that are starting to look like they are not. Low minors are not part of this, please don't tell me about Sixto, he is too far away and is not dominating, just doing well.

[allentown]

Galvis has definitely improved offensively. A .716 OPS for a slick fielding SS is actually good. His OPS has taken a step up each of the last 3 seasons.

[bkeich]

Galvis has definitely improved offensively. A .716 OPS for a slick fielding SS is actually good. His OPS has taken a step up each of the last 3 seasons.

You are correct, I did not realize he had gotten his normally abysmal OBP up to 0.307. His slugging has jumped nicely the last 2 seasons, but last years came at the cost of OBP, this year he seems to have gotten back to at least hitting at a higher BA and drew a few walks against his nature ()

He has had a funny season, his BA has been in the .250s and his OBP in the .300s for almost 2 months every day. I guess that is a form of consistency.

[andyb]

We had 4 potentially weak spots in the lineup coming off of last season:

3B - Regression. Future problem
1B - Solution looks to be Hoskins
LF - Williams is better than rental free agents so far. Still small sample
RF - Altherr - a big improvement compared to a year ago.

CF, 2B, SS, and C are all stable. And we don't replace the latter 3 unless we have a player just as good. As I said, apart from 3B it is not a bad lineup when healthy. Adding some complementary utility players should not be hard. And there could be a trade bonus coming back if some of Galvis, Hernandez, and Rupp/Alfaro are dealt.

[Austinfan]

People are being really impatient in what is essentially the 2nd year of a major rebuild (started in July 2015 when they finally cleared house).
A lot of the top minor leaguers won't arrive until 2020, meanwhile they've built solid depth between the ML team and AAA ball.
But we're talking a lot of young players, inconsistency and struggling is to be expected, as well as attrition.

We go into the winter with:
C: Rupp, Alfaro, Knapp
1B: Hoskins, Joseph, Stassi
2B: Hernandez, Kingery (Mora, Valentin in AAA)
SS: Galvis, Crawford
3B: Franco
LF: Williams (Pullin in AAA)
CF: Herrera (Quinn, Tocci in AAA)
RF: Altherr (Tromp, Cozens in AAA)

Nola, Eickhoff, Pivetta, Velasquez, Eflin, Lively, Leiter, (Eshelman, Thompson, Anderson, Tavares in AAA)
Neris, Garcia, Therrien, Morgan, Ramos, Pinto (Rios in AAA)

Point is they have a deep young group, some will step up, some will flame out, but it's an awfully young team.
And they have options to trade, money to burn, and probably the 1st pick next summer.
This is far better than the end of 2015, when they finally dumped the veterans but had no one ready to step in their shoes.

As far as spending money, right now I'd go second tier SP, a couple last year signed 3yr/$30-$40M dals and were solid contributors, it's the one year guys who are total gambles and you might as well just hand out bonuses to bounceback players to come to ST and hope to get lucky.
I don't like the FA class this year, if wasting $17M on Hellickson and $10M on Bucholtz hurts, how about wasting the last 4-5 years of a mega-contract on a #2 SP who'll soon fall off the cliff.
When it comes to FA, history shows go big (elite player at the right age) or wait for bargains, the worst move is to overpay for second tier talent or guys already on their downward slope.
I'd much rather overpay on a short-term deal, than get stuck with "dead money" after 2020.
Now if a top young player becomes available and doesn't want to go to a top media market - but I'm not holding my breath.
It's a lot easier to resign your own guys early than compete with LA and NYC.

[teabag259]

There are a bunch of good young offensive pieces. Frontline starting pitching aside what is missing is that bonafide, marquee superstar type player. Machado would be the perfect fit.