2017-18 Phillies Off-Season News/Notes/Discussion

[fish]

Phillies announce the hiring of former Dodger Pedro Guerrero as assistant hitting coach.

With Engelb Vielma and Guerrero this makes 2 straight "what the __???" additions. But, they plan to do things in a new way, so they deserve the chance to add the guys they want to implement that. Of course, they'll also be quickly judged for off the wall choices too.

[zambonir]

I don't see the connection. Guerrero's been a bench coach for the Dodgers' rookie league team for two seasons, obviously Kapler must know him well from being their minor league director, and having an assistant hitting coach who is a lot closer to the players' age (and speaks Spanish) makes perfect sense to me.

[julio]

I don't see the connection.

The "connection" is that any decision that isn't "by the book" will be questioned/criticized by somebody. This is why so many choices by so many organizations are the "safe" picks - because it's harder to criticize hiring John McNamara for his third managing job than it is to question giving a new guy a chance.

[zambonir]

Fair enough but if anything I would argue that picking up a young utility IF on waivers (or any kind of minor roster move at this time of year, no matter how much you might like Carlos Tocci) is completely by the book.

Guerrero, definitely less so, but I like it. If you read Murphy's latest column, it's obviously part of this approach: authenticity, diversity (which includes age), a less hierarchial/authoritarian management structure

With Gabe Kapler, Phillies make statement about future they envision | David...

[nycphils]

Reaction to this article:

Randolph has eye on big picture with Glendale

The rebuild is going fairly well, the pipeline is incredibly deep if not brimming with stars, but it is really hard to get past the fact that in the last three drafts we had 1.8, 1.1 and 1.10 with not one sure fire above average regular or SP to show for it.

[DurhamBull]

For those that follow the minors, is Randolph projected to play anywhere other than LF? For me it's tough to see a future for a guy who is just 20 and already limited to an easy-to-fill position like 1B or LF. It's not impossible for him to succeed, but he really has to hit. I assume that if he was a great defender they'd be trying him in CF or RF.

[allentown]

Everything I've read says LF/1B/DH with below average power expected for a guy at those positions and yet to show average-level D in LF, although the D is said to be improving. That's why I can't rank him in my top 10. His bat will have to carry him. He's young, as are the other two very high draft picks mentioned by nycphils, so it's too early to worry overly much, but I had expected, rather than merely hoped, that at least one of the 3 would sparkle by now. Three high picks expended on OFs and a clearly plus player has yet to emerge. There is time, but 2018 is big for all of them. On the plus side, all three of them look like they are future MLB players, just not yet putting their hands up as likely future plus starters.

[California_Dreamin]

Nick Cafardo has a weekly column in the Boston Globe and while its always Red Sox heavy [as Jayson Stark's was always Phillie heavy when he wrote for the Inquier] he is also well connected and write good articles. His column today has a tiny slice of what could mean Phillie heaven sooner rather than later and involves Philly native, Mike Trout.

Cafardo is talking about teams that could be in on Stanton, and why, and mentions how the Angels could be interested in him because Trout can leave after the 2018 season. As a Californian, I believe I know what he is talking about.

California has a little known and rarely invoked law that allows participants in long term contracts to end those deals early. Now I am not an expert on this law nor will try to be, but if memory serves me, this has been mentioned here and on phuturephillies and philaphans. Frankly, no one got too excited about this because it seemed like such a pipe dream, and still may be.

However, Cafardo would not have written it if there wasn't at least a tiny inkling of truth to the story and Trout's A] unabashed love of everything Philadelphia and B] growing impatience with the Angels declining standing in the AL West adds fuel to the fire.

Look, I am only passing on what Cafardo wrote today and there may be nothing to the story. But it seems just as likely that the Phils have at least heard the same rumors Cafardo has heard and want to make sure they have that $400 million to spend after 2018...but not on Harper or Machado, but Trout.

If this little known and rarely used law is in effect, and I have read about it often in regards to Trout, then becoming a free agent in 2018 may make sense for him since he will have the opportunity to be a free agent at precisely the time when the most teams are keeping their financial barrels dry and allowing himself the chance to come home to Philadelphia at a dreamers scenario for a Philly lover fan like Trout is...Eagles are Super Bowl contenders, 76'ers look like future Beasts of the East...and the Phillies are arguably one super star outfielder from having one of the best young lineups in baseball.

Living here in SoCal, I will certainly begin to keep my ears open and if I hear anything, will be glad to report it. Also, if anyone knows more about this contract law, please feel free to add to my limited knowledge.

[California_Dreamin]

By the way, you access the article since its posted on MLBrumors.com.

[julio]

Here's the relevant part of Cafardo's column. This is two paragraphs from a much longer column, and the only mention of Mike Trout:

Does Stanton really want to come to Boston, some 3,000 miles away from his Southern California home? There have been reports that Stanton has already nixed Boston as a landing spot, but those are apparently premature because the Red Sox have not ruled out a bid for Stanton. If Stanton had already nixed Boston, there would be no dialogue between the teams.

Stanton also purchased a massive penthouse overlooking Biscayne Bay in Miami for about $6 million. He likes Miami and really doesn’t have to go anywhere. He could wait out the trade market until the Dodgers or Angels show interest. The Dodgers would like to get under the luxury tax threshold, but their fans are impatient for a World Series winner. Mike Trout could leave the Angels after 2018, so the Angels could have space for another superstar if Trout goes.

[EDmuch]

Sounds like a dream but would be wonderful if it happened. Phils however, still need pitching and, unfortunately I have not hear any rumors lately about who they may by pursuing.

[zambonir]

This has been a slow off-season, the rumor mill included. It will probably pick up after the holiday. The dam won't break until the first big signing though. Might not happen until the meetings especially if some teams (and agents) are also waiting to see who gets Ohtani (since that could affect a team's pursuit of Darvish, or any pitcher really).

I think Cafardo simply made a mistake regarding Trout (confusing him with Harper perhaps?). According to this story about the situation CD references, Trout would actually be able to pursue free agency right now.

How Mike Trout Could Legally Become a Free Agent | FanGraphs Baseball

It wouldn't just be Trout either. If it really happened you'd likely be looking at a long legal battle in which the courts would presumably order the contracts to remain in force until the case was fully heard, as any other way would be untenable.

[Austinfan]

Given the amount of money Trout's going to get, and that he doesn't seem like a high roller type, I could see him giving a hometown discount (if Lurie throws in an Eagle box, or reserves a row on the 50 year line for Trout and friends). Once you get to $300M or so, what's a few million more?
He seems like the guy who'd love to play for the Phillies and have tickets for the Eagles, Flyers and Sixers and just play ball and go to games and have a great time without "Hollywood hype."

[zambonir]

The best thing the Phillies have going for them right now is his no-trade clause, though it's still going to take a lot for the Angels to wave that flag. Once he is a free agent the need for a hometown discount almost doesn't matter. If home is where he wants to go and it still appears that he will be the player that he is for several years, the Phils will pay.

But it doesn't have to be Hollywood for there to be hype. He would either be the greatest Philadelpha sports hero ever or the most hated guy of all time. It would actually be easier to play for the Yankees.

[allentown]

The big FAs to be are often traded before they achieve FA and often agree to extend with the receiving trade as part of the trade. I've been expecting this practice to end and for the union to push for the players to end it. Trout or Machado will want to go to a team with a good chance to win soon and to sustain winning, so why would they allow their current team to strip valuable players/prospects from their new team, if that reduces the chances of that team winning -- which it certainly does. Wait a year, become a FA, choose any team -- hometown, WS champion, best offer, best up-and-coming org, favorite manager -- and go there for just $ so team can keep all its talent and odds of winning are maximized. Player gets exactly what it wants, union has best odds at a really big contract.

[allentown]

I doubt he'd be the greatest Philadelphia sports hero of all time. I doubt he'd be the biggest Philadelphia sports hero during his time in Philly -- there is a certain young center and a certain young QB in town whom he'd have to share the spotlight with. He might well choose to come to Phillies anyway and the Phillies certainly could afford to pay him.

[zambonir]

Well that's true but I was more focused on the negative. If he declines or the Phillies aren't good the crash would be Lindros/Rolen hard. I also exaggerate, but Philly native comes home would be a pretty big edge over Embiid and Wentz. The problem is merely that he plays the third-most popular sport (if all else is equal, i.e. they are all winning titles).

Is there really a pattern of trades contingent on extensions in which the the acquiring team actually gives up anything that valuable in the short-term? Or even at all? I think "often" might be incorrect, i.e. it's not only less than half the time but less than 10% of the time. I can't think of the last guy to do it off the top of my head since Halladay, though I'm sure it has happened. It also happens a lot less at the deadline and more pending FAs move then.

But even if the players the Phillies had given up for Halladay had all become all-stars, it wouldn't have mattered to him. Most teams who are in a position to make those kinds of deals are in win-now mode and hold on to their major league and close to major league players.That said, if the Phillies could trade for Trout tomorrow it'd be easy enough to give up one major league OF and one top OF prospect and if you've also gotta part with some pitchers who are three years away you do that too.

Obviously it wouldn't do anyone any good to trade Aaron Nola and JP Crawford for Manny Machado but I just don't know how often that scenario plays out, especially when the selling team is not only rebuilding but also dumping salary.

I don't see the union doing anything about that, they may exert a lot of pressure behind the scenes but to openly restrict your own membership's freedom of movement wouldn't be popular. They have a lot of other things to be worried about.

I certainly don't see Machado moving this off-season, or signing an extension either way (but definitely not at the deadline). Trout, down the line, who knows?

[andyb]

Fangraphs musing on when the Phillies should spend. Not a great article IMO because it does not really dive into what the team needs (i.e. starting pitching) that much and goes off on tangents like Michael Pineda who might very well be a good buy low candidate (TJ surgery, out for much of 2017) but really would not be classified as real spending. The big question for me is how they should spend - not whether they need to spend some. The "how" is really about going for older free agents to retain their prospects or trying to trade for guys like Archer, Stroman, or Cole.

When Will the Phillies Spend? | FanGraphs Baseball

[California_Dreamin]

Apparently Phils just traded catcher Cameron Rupp to Pittsburgh for lefty Steve Brault,

[California_Dreamin]

FWIW Dept....Brault was quite impressive at Triple last year and did pitch in Pittsburgh. Please note I just read this on phuturephillies and have not seen it reported yet anywhere else. We should know in a few minutes but unless the guy who posted it is Brault's agent and simply wants his name out there, I suspect its true.

If true, I like the deal, gives the Phils a potential lefty starter.