2017-18 Off-season Trade/Free Agent Speculation

phillychuck 2017-12-14 04:50:46 UTC #683

Just as happy they didn't trade with the Angels. Don't like what they would likely have offered.

julio 2017-12-14 05:25:54 UTC #684

I can't be upset about the Phils not accepting an inadequate offer for Hernandez.

The reason some argue for trading Hernandez, rather than Galvis, is that Hernandez has more trade value, will bring back more return. OK... but that means you don't trade him unless you get the return you need. Duh.

Cesar Hernandez has posted a .372 OBP over the past two seasons. That ain't chickenfeed.

I very much hope that Scott Kingery is the real deal, and that he can become our regular 2B for multiple seasons. But...Kingery posted very solid numbers in AA in 2017 (.379/.608/.987), but did not duplicate that in AAA (.337/.449/.786). He has more power than Cesar, I believe - although Hernandez managed a .421 SLG last year, and produced a HIGHER OPS in the majors than Kingery achieved in AAA.

IMHO, Kingery needs to take the job away from Hernandez - by playing better defense (which he does), and by elevating his offensive game at the AAA and then NL level - by recovering that high OBP that is critical to a hitter who will fit in the top of the batting order. If he can't do that, then trading Hernandez to "make room" for Kingery could be a step backward.

So... I'm not arguing that the Phils should NOT trade Hernandez - but that if they do trade him, it had better be for a very substantial return. It's not as if Kingery has outperformed Hernandez, and thus won the starting job. He has not; he may, at some point, but that's not what his AAA line says at this point. Trade Hernandez, promote Kingery...and you may get no overall improvement at all - so the trade return becomes critical.

Galvis, on the other hand... Freddy will be a free agent in 10 months. The Phils have an adequate replacement (who may be better), and who is likely going to have the job regardless, in 10 months. Galvis can be traded for any reasonable return - because he's going to turn into a pumpkin in 10 months if he's not traded before that.

Moreover... I might be inclined to trade Galvis before Opening Day (assuming a reasonable deal can be made - I'm not suggesting he be dumped), just to put an end to the "Freddy promotion" that seems to be unending from the local media, and from the Phils' broadcasters (and I suspect from some others in the organization) - and to avoid any sense in the clubhouse that Freddy should be starting (at shortstop, or anywhere) every day, because he's the veteran, the "leader," and everybody likes him.

zambonir 2017-12-14 05:47:37 UTC #685

Salisbury wrote two posts today that said the Phillies were aggressively shopping Freddy. One with an unnamed source from another team that was looking for a 2B.

He also wrote that the Phillies want two pitchers for Cesar

I do like this quote from Klentak - it's both obfuscating and very fair media criticism

"We've spent the last day and a half meeting with most of the prominent agents in the industry — a lot of agents represent players we're targeting and players we're not targeting — and I can understand why sometimes the connection will get made that may not be perfectly accurate," Klentak said.

Squire 2017-12-14 13:00:39 UTC #686

Some smoke that the White Sox have moved into the lead on Machado (they do have a great system) but that their plan may be to immediately flip him to the Yankees. You would think the Orioles would be hip to that and not want it to happen.

Austinfan 2017-12-14 13:43:24 UTC #687

Did ya catch this one?

"Seranthony Dominguez would begin transitioning to the bullpen in spring training."

Good move, he's never stayed healthy as a starter, but could quickly climb in the pen.
I think this is Velasquez's last shot at starting as well.
Lot of starter depth, and these hard throwers who can't get through 5 innings are perfect candidates for the pen.

EDmuch 2017-12-14 14:31:50 UTC #688

So Klentak "boldly" decides to stand pat and not pursue Machado. ..... Klentak again repeats his Unicorn mantra (he will open his purse when that one perfect player comes along) meanwhile there are rumors of Yelich, Archer, Fullmer, all perhaps being available. I will shut up about the lack of progress if the Phils are able to pull off a trade for just one of them.

Lawman 2017-12-14 14:34:14 UTC #689

Rumors are now that CWS are the frontrunners for Machado.

Philsmania 2017-12-14 15:20:15 UTC #690

Yeah, it is a bit frustrating. I was thinking this morning that the "2018 free agency class or bust" strategy they presumably have been pursuing won't be looking too good if Harper re-ups with the Nats and Machado goes off the market as well.

bigegypt0417 2017-12-14 15:51:38 UTC #691

Is it possible the Phillies have asked and were told machado is testing free agency?

Boras is also saying harper is not signing an extension....

I'm not buying machado unless he's signing an extension.

Philsmania 2017-12-14 15:54:00 UTC #692

I agree on that. Unless they are going to flip him, I can't comprehend the White Sox thinking if Machado is dead-set against an extension. Even with Machado who would be a one-year rental, I don't see a path to contention for them in 2018.

EDmuch 2017-12-14 16:12:32 UTC #693

I am not aware of anyone on this board who has suggested that the Phils acquire Machado as a one year player.

bigegypt0417 2017-12-14 16:23:57 UTC #694

The conversation is that Machado's people are telling every team they aren't looking for an extension.

So what are you suggesting?

Philsmania 2017-12-14 17:07:12 UTC #695

I was basically talking about the White Sox getting him as a one year rental which makes about as much sense as the Phillies getting him as just a one year rental.

California_Dreamin 2017-12-14 17:20:51 UTC #696

If Mchado's people are suggesting to the Orioles [and I bet they are] that he is likely to sign with the Yankees anyhow as a free agent, it would almost make sense to either A] trade him to the Yankees for two of their outstanding prospects or B] trade him to the White Sox, who also have a great system, even if they are going to move him to the Yankees.

If Machado is unwilling to agree to a long term deal with the Phillies [and why would he?] it just doesn't make sense to even contemplate acquiring him, as much as I would like him.

I mentioned this before but might be worth mentioning again. We, as Phillie phans, know about their youth, pharm system, and potential for the future. Unfortunately, most players today don't follow other teams that closely and I suspect many players still think the Phils are one of the downtrodden teams in baseball, especially teams in the AL. Wouldn't be surprised if Machado views the Phils that way.

zambonir 2017-12-14 19:31:13 UTC #697

I read the Phillies made an offer for Machado so what else are they supposed to do? Presumably the offer was appropriate for what is currently available, a guy for one year. If the Orioles are willing to grant the 72-hour talks window I'm sure the Phillies will be all over it, though those talks will likely not be fruitful (and if his agents are already telling the Orioles don't even bother, that's that).

There's just no reason for Machado to do it, the only people it helps are the Orioles and a bunch of teams he actually wouldn't want to play for in 2018, the Phillies included. If he's not even willing to have extension talks they can't sell him on their grand future, all they could do is get him on the team and hope he likes it (and, obviously, improve the 2018 team more).

And if the O's want major league ready pitching rather than a Sanchez or Romero, the Phillies simply don't have it.

allentown 2017-12-14 19:55:44 UTC #698

I agree with you. Which is why saying this year is too soon to spend could very well translate to being effectively shut out next year. Five years is a lifetime in baseball and that's how long it has been the wrong time to spend for the Phillies and how long they have been last or pathetic or poor in MLB performance. Klentak seems willing for next year to be more of the same. We no longer have a shiny new stadium to offer. The Phillies are going to have to demonstratively re-announce themselves as players and would-be contenders in the baseball markets. We did that last time with Thome and the new stadium. If we want to contend anytime soon, it's time for another waving of the 'we're serious' flag. Two older relievers, neither seen as a closer (or 8th inning guy?) isn't going to move the needle, either in wins or in perception.

Austinfan 2017-12-14 20:10:32 UTC #699

If the Phillies prospects don't emerge, signing over 30 free agents to get to .500 shouldn't impress any rational free agent - because those kind of patches can regress in a year or two.
If I'm picking a team that's competitive, I want to see a lineup full of players in their peak seasons.

zambonir 2017-12-14 20:28:13 UTC #700

Thome didn't really help the Phillies sign any good players though (unless you count David Bell). He was a marketing campaign. Except for Billy Wagner there were no significant high-level free agents helping the Phillies win games back then, whether you look at the 2004-2005 teams or the 2007-2008 teams. Nearly every major player was homegrown or acquired via trade (Abreu, Milton, Polanco among them in the first instance). Their biggest signing was probably Jon Lieber, I bet we can match that this year. Gillick's biggest signing was Adam Eaton.

You gotta develop your own guys, fill the holes with mid-level vets, then add the big names when the team is ready. And while the Cubs added Lester, that didn't necessarily make it easier for them to get more players a year later. And the Astros didn't worry about that either.

I think if they can get someone on a three-year deal they might give up the compensation (all the more reason to max out on int'l this year if so). But I'm not convinced the perceived PR/recruiting value of having an 81-win team instead of a 76-win team is actually worth that.

Still at least 6 weeks left before we really know what the plan is. That writer who predicted some of these big signings wouldn't happen until January is probably going to be right.

California_Dreamin 2017-12-14 20:43:03 UTC #701

Another thing to consider when advocating for dealing for Machado, even if its a one year rental. Phils could move him at the trade deadline, perhaps even to the Yankees or Red Sox, and get back prospects that might just be almost as good as the guys they have to deal to the O's in order to acquire him.

And its possible that Machado will look around, see Hoskins, Crawford, Altherr, Herrera, Williams, Alfaro and say, "hey, this is a much more talented club than I imagined" and peruse the landscape and realize the Phils might be the best place for him.

andyb 2017-12-14 20:49:27 UTC #702

Why does signing a major free agent have to make it easier to sign more free agents? Lester signed with the Cubs the year after they won 73 games. Better than the Phillies but not that far away. The Phillies are considered to have a growing core of young talent. And they have lots of cash to spend. The Cubs might have been seen as a bit closer than the Phillies but the situations are more similar than different.

After that season the Cubs DID get major free agents - Zobrist, Heyward, etc., though winning 97 games probably helped more than anything else.

If the Cubs can do it the Phillies could too.