2017-18 Off-season Trade/Free Agent Speculation

Lawman 2017-12-12 15:22:02 UTC #623

I think in evaluating whether to trade for Machado now, a large part of it is dependent on where the Phillies feel the Orioles are at. If Phillies feel that Machado will be traded - now or at the deadline - then they may want to make a trade and lock him up now. If they feel that Baltimore will let him walk in FA next year, then wait.

As for Arrieta, there's some sense in signing him so sure, why not?

andyb 2017-12-12 15:25:45 UTC #624

I'd still prefer Darvish over Arrietta because he is a little younger and does not have the QO. Of course Arrietta probably costs $30 to $50 million less because of that.

On Machado if we are doing a 12-year deal I would just assume start it this year as opposed to next year. I do wonder if Machado is willing to give up the possibility of playing SS. He can't refuse a trade of course, but he can refuse to sign an extension with a team where SS might be locked up for the next 6 years (basically the timespan where Machado could potentially play SS successfully).

Austinfan 2017-12-12 15:32:13 UTC #625

Arrieta had a big drop in velocity, though his changeup improved, you may be buying a #3 that's only a few years from the proverbial cliff.
95 to 92 the last two seasons (and subtract an additional 0.5 for the change in how they measure velocity).
3.8 and 2.2 WAR the last two seasons.
So figure 8 WAR the next three years, that's a 3yr $60-$80M deal.

Arrieta has become Tanner Roark

saycheese 2017-12-12 15:46:50 UTC #626

That would be my concern with Arrieta is his velo drop. Not as concerned about giving up the 2nd round pick as if we traded for a starter in Arrieta's realm it would cost us in terms of prospects more than the 2nd rounder and most likely we would also need to pay them.

LoneStarPhan 2017-12-12 15:50:48 UTC #627

But it's more than just a second round pick lost to sign him!

I'd go for Darvish if signing a top free agent pitcher.

EDmuch 2017-12-12 16:12:01 UTC #628

The reason I like Arrieta is that he is now clearly a No. 3 type starter. A vet who while losing some speed has compensated for that by "learning to pitch". For example, as AF has noted, he has compensated for his drop in velocity by relying more upon his change up. THIS IS EXACTLY THE KIND OF VETERAN PITCHER WE NEED AROUND OUR OWN "YOUNG GUNS". He can show by example about the need to learn to pitch rather than throw. In contrast, Darvish looked like a "deer in the headlights" during the post-season where he had no idea what to do as the Astros knocked him all over the park. So, I accept that Arrieta is no longer a No. 1. But to me he is the kind of veteran guy who has learned to pitch that we need around our young pitchers. Heck add Vargas and go with 2 of our young guns to start the season (Pivetta and one other) and I think we are an outside shot wild card possibility.

allentown 2017-12-12 16:15:13 UTC #629

If we are trading some of our primo prospects to get Machado, I don't want to lose draft picks and international allocation -- far better to pay more $ and get Darvish. I think Darvish is also the better pitcher and the one who will be good for longer.

saycheese 2017-12-12 16:22:14 UTC #630

The question is would Darvish come here? Arrieta has history with Klentak and McPhail so that could swing him as well as a boat load of money.

saycheese 2017-12-12 16:26:50 UTC #631

The recent report says the O's are looking for two controllable pitcher for Machado. . We have a bunch to offer, Pivetta, VV, Eflin, Lively, Echhoff, Leiter, and Thompson all with MLB experience. Then they could look at Anderson, Echleman and Kilome in the higher minors. I may not want to trade Kilome but the rest are trad able to land a guy like Machado. Especially since Machado agent usually gets his stars signed before they hit free agency.

David_Criss 2017-12-12 16:36:23 UTC #632

The O's are smart to include a window to negotiate a multi year deal. That has to be attractive to a team like the Phillies. The O's lose him in a year for a draft pick, so why not get a couple more established prospects and the receiving team can cross that off the to-do list in 2018. Is everybody ok with Crawford or Franco playing 3B if Machado insists of moving to SS?

Lawman 2017-12-12 16:58:01 UTC #633

If the Orioles are really shopping Machado now, Phils need to swing that trade. Waiting until next winter may not cut it.

flyers19rw 2017-12-12 17:06:28 UTC #634

As stated above, the O's are going to lose MM. Now is the time to for Baltimore to move him and probably a few other O's (Jones, Britton) since they're in a rebuild. As we know, the sooner that an organization starts a rebuild, the better. To delay it, even for one season, as a set back.

nycphils 2017-12-12 17:59:51 UTC #635

Agree. More important to acquire than to keep a few prospects. As I said earlier, I'd like to keep Sixto, but Medina, Kilome and one of Eflin/Lively/Pivetta/Leiter along with Galvis and Franco (or maybe even one of Moniak/Brito/Jose Gomez/Randolph/E. Alvarez instead (depending on their preferences)) would be fine with me, especially if we get 72 hrs. Worth it to get that elusive young star.

And if it mattered to him, I'd put him at SS and Crawford at 3B for now to get him to agree.

fish 2017-12-12 18:50:23 UTC #636

None of that is going to get it done. "looking for young, controllable starters" doesn't equate to "young, controllable starters struggling too hold down a #5 role in your rotation on one of the worst teams in baseball". Unless Machado gets traded somewhere he really wants to go, it seems highly unlikely he's going to skip the opportunity to shoot for the moon after next year. For him to agree to an extension with a team like the Phillies in their current state of affairs, you'd have make him an offer that he never dreamed he'd see next year.

andyb 2017-12-12 19:18:58 UTC #637

Actually I don't think the offer would need to be greater than what he would get next year. Remember he is risking injury if he plays on a 1-year contract. One might actually be getting him for a bit less (and a year younger) if the long term contract were signed now.

Whether he would sign with the Phillies of course is a different question entirely. And the wanting a clear path to SS is potentially a pitfall there. I am sure we could offer it to him but who knows how the team would feel in 2-3 years if his defense does not grade out as above average there. Though I suppose the easy way to guarantee it would be to put Crawford in the deal as a major piece. The logic there is that if we were going to play Crawford at 3B we would be wasting some of his value - so might as well put him in the trade as a major piece of the trade.

Squire 2017-12-12 20:04:13 UTC #638

Lots of interesting discussion about a possible Cesar to the Angels deal in this tweet and the comments

Certainly makes it seem like there is a lot smoke developing there.

saycheese 2017-12-12 20:19:17 UTC #639

#Phillies , even after agreeing with Neshek, might not be done reinforcing their bullpen. Per sources, have had ongoing discussions with free agent Addison Reed.
— Ken Rosenthal ( @Ken_Rosenthal ) December 12, 2017

Klentak loves him some relievers

Squire 2017-12-12 20:20:03 UTC #640

Apparently Ed Wade was right all along.

Austinfan 2017-12-12 20:37:16 UTC #641

Except Ed was giving up draft picks to get his veteran RPs.
And he didn't pick the best ones.

zambonir 2017-12-12 20:43:02 UTC #642

That Orioles story is not even close to real. Maybe things will get real but all it actually said was

"it’s part of the buzz inside the Walt Disney World Dolphin Resort, that the Phillies are one of the more interested parties and the Orioles have been doing their homework on the club’s farm system in case talks become serious.

But there have not actually been any talks. And I doubt the extension scenario is a real possibility. Plus, if it is, it will be for other teams too (though many probably can't do that right now 'cause of the tax). But Machado can basically get himself traded to a better team for one season just by refusing to talk to any team about an extension, and then still go wherever he wants. Which at least leaves the Phillies in the mix.

To me it's more interesting to ponder, what would you give up for him just for the one season, and what else would you do to make the 2018 team better. Machado, Arrieta, another starter, more relievers and a starting-quality 4th OF/1B might actually get you to 87 wins if the kids are all right. But he still wouldn't be cheap.