2017-18 Off-season Trade/Free Agent Speculation

[allentown]

Pete loved Galvis's leadership. I don't. It seemed the sort of 'leadership' that publicly snarks a fellow (and better) player whom the manager wants snarked. Pete spent the season lobbying to be the manager this year, while Galvis wanted to play 162 games. They came to a meeting of the minds. The local media love to get eyeballs by discovering/feeding rumors of conflict, dissent, problem children on a team. The wise player/manager/team studiously avoids feeding this highly destructive beast. Losers just let it rip. The Phillies, with Dallas Green out in front, used to be one of the worst offenders in this area. This year's successful Eagles are doing a great job of simply shutting down this nonsense.

[allentown]

Hamels? Unless he was available as essentially a salary dump with minor prospects leaving as eyewash, this would be a very foolish and costly walk down nostalgia lane.

[Patchmk88]

I believe he is talking Gerrit Cole.

[David_Criss]

Some pitchers, as I recall, have said things along the lines of how much they love having Galvis's glove behind them when they are pitching. The Phillies could do a lot worse than to start the season with Galvis and Hernandez up the middle and letting Crawford and Franco battle it out for 3B. Heck they could do worse then letting Crawford and Kingery play together at AAA to start the season, too.

My point is no one, on the Phillies, has to be traded save possibly Joseph and Rupp only because they are being pushed out and a lottery ticket is better than nothing. Galvis and Hernandez are not Rolen wanting to go to Heaven or Schilling begging to leave or end of contracts move for the rebuild i.e. Ruiz, Utley, Rollins, Howard (attempt), etc. The only reason Hamels and Giles were traded was because of the return - the price the team was willing to pay

If the return for Galvis and or Hernandez doesn't make sense or isn't a good return hold onto them - combined they wont make what Hamels or Howard made.

[zambonir]

Players are now being singed all around the league, former Braves prospects that are now free agents, pitchers form Japan such as Mikolas. Yet all our FO seems to be doing is filing out the coaching staff.

I don't find the Mikolas signing to be much more exciting than say, trading for Charlie Morton two years ago. The hot stove has only just finished pre-heating. What's the rush? The first real free agent has only signed today (Minor to the Rangers). The meetings start in five days. The lack of activity does not equal a lack of action, it just means no teams have made any offers that agents are accepting.

There will be lots of action over the next two weeks. The Phillies will be busy, even if they don't shop at the level some people want.

And the coaching staff is pretty important!

[zambonir]

"Do not be surprised if the Phillies are linked to some of the biggest rumors in baseball at next week's Winter Meetings."

(Just be surprised if they are true. Though I think Zolecki is too pessimistic about all the pitchers wanting five-year deals.)

Phillies Winter Meetings strategy preview

[allentown]

The writers keep talking about the Phillies holding back, because they are focused on next year's primo free agent class. I predict that their will be considerable attrition to that class before its FA period begins. The Phillies talk of looking ahead makes sense: it may entice more of the top names to hold out for free agency.

[Austinfan]

That's the writers.

I think Klentak just wants to keep his options open, a year is an eternity when it comes to making deals.
He knows most of the big names will never hit free agency, and the ones that do will prefer NY or LA, bigger markets with more media attention and better endorsement deals.
He has said repeatedly he doesn't like giving big money to pitchers who are 30 or older.
He may want to just roll the cap room over with shorter deals until his own players are ready for long-term extensions.

And he has to save room to sign Trout down the road.

[zambonir]

You'd have to define "considerable" I guess. How many players were on a similar list a year ago who didn't actually hit free agency?

In reality this whole thing has always only ever been about three guys: Harper, Machado and Kershaw. I doubt the first two players will forego free agency and Kershaw isn't actually a free agent, so if he wants to opt out, he'll hit the free market, and if he doesn't (I imagine he will tear that up for an extension), same difference.

Beyond that, the huge class is still a bunch of over-31 guys.

This year will be interesting, to see if teams really are shying away from free agency in general. But I don't think there are any position players this year that I would want the Phillies to sign if they knew for sure that Harper and Machado weren't options. Yeah, there are a few 3B, but there are just as many of those next year as there are now.

And if teams really are shying away, there will also be GMs who take advantage of that. Klentak could be one of them, we'll see. If Arrieta or even someone like Todd Frazier falls in his lap at a good price, ya never know.

[nycphils]

I don't understand the angst. Klentak seems to have a plan and is sticking to it. He pays when he sees value - for example the ex Brave Venezuelan catcher - and he doesn't when he doesn't (not overpaying for Maitan, mediocre over 30 pitchers on multi year deals, not giving away Joseph, Galvis, etc.)

He thinks out of the box and demonstrably takes chances - see Kapler and the coaching staff. He's not overpaying or giving away the farm for middle relievers.

This is what we always wanted. This team will get there...a la the Astros. When exactly? Who knows. But it will happen.

Can we quibble? Sure - for example, we may have blown 3 consecutive top 10 draft picks, including a 1.1. But the future is still in tact so let's all just wait and see and have a kinipshin if the don't sign Darvish for a zillion $ or don't get the next Cole Hamels in exchange for Galvis. Geez.

[andyb]

I guess the "angst" is about an approach that might be tilted a little too much towards value and efficiency and a little less on quality. There is a legitimate argument that the team needs to start preparing to contend and waiting an additional year might not be the best strategy, especially if there is no certainty that free agents like Machado would actually sign with the Phillies.

I like Klentak as a GM generally, but I also am not going to blindly say everything he is doing is correct. His free agent signings and trades so far have been correct strategically but have not really worked out too well individually. He has also been hesitant to make moves at times, especially ones that are a bit out of the box like trading Rupp when he had more value. So his record is mixed. In general the strategy seems fine but the execution is so-so. And it is a legit argument to wonder if the team should be more aggressive this winter than in the previous two.

[flyers19rw]

I guess the "angst" is about an approach that might be tilted a little too much towards value and efficiency and a little less on quality. There is a legitimate argument that the team needs to start preparing to contend and waiting an additional year might not be the best strategy, especially if there is no certainty that free agents like Machado would actually sign with the Phillies.

I don't see a difference between value/efficiency and quality; perhaps you can explain what you see as the difference. I'd hope that a "quality" player would have those two aspects to their game. If there is one thing that Klentak seems to be doing, it is staying away from players that have a name out there that may not be able to maintain their level of production.
As for Machado, I doubt that a lack of money in an offer would be what would deter him from signing here is he goes FA. Cash the Phillies have. Personally, for a lot of reasons, I would really like to see Machado in red pinstripes. However what I wonder about is how much more money and time would it take to sign Machado over Moustakas and is it worth the difference?

[andyb]

It is easy to add small pieces efficiently. Things get more expensive with bigger pieces. A 4 WAR player is more expensive than 2 different 2 WAR players simply because there is scarcity in star players.

Teams need star players to win. At some point we need to compete for guys like Darvish because guys like Hellickson don't make the team much better.

Klentak has also not done "out of the box" player moves since the Giles trade. He sat on assets like Rupp and Galvis till the point they had little value. Now his strategy while being conservative and efficient might have cost us future prospects.

[Squire]

Cubs Sign RHP Tyler Chatwood

[Lawman]

3 years, $40MM

[allentown]

I don't see a difference between value/efficiency and quality; perhaps you can explain what you see as the difference. I'd hope that a "quality" player would have those two aspects to their game. If there is one thing that Klentak seems to be doing, it is staying away from players that have a name out there that may not be able to maintain their level of production

I believe that winning more games requires adding more WAR on the 25-man roster and especially among the starters, while retaining a coherent team atmosphere. Since you can only play 9 guys at a time, it is important to have some largish +WAR guys, rather than a larger number of slightly +WAR guys, many of whom will have to not play all that much. If you don't spend as much as you possibly can on the farm (draft, international under-25 and 25+) you'll have less homegrown War (which is the most cost effective and likeliest to integrate smoothly into your clubhouse/way of doing things). If you don't spend enough on the MLB roster, you will be short of WAR and wins.

[fish]

3 years, $40MM

Well, at that rate (14 million for 3 yrs) and the difference in playing for a contender I figure it would probably take the Phils 3 years and 50 million to convince Chatwood to sign. At that rate (16 million plus a year) it seems crazy, but then again they just pay Hellickson 17 million for 1, so maybe that's the new normal.

Chatwood is a nice idea, but for that kind of bread, the Phils are better off trying to be creative and give someone else a chance.

[bigegypt0417]

At this point this is all guesswork but it would make sense the Phillies would be interested...

MLB rumors: Yankees, Phillies want Manny Machado?

[zambonir]

The question is, does a deal like that for Chatwood make it harder or easier to sign someone like Arrieta. He may have had the highest value because he didn't have a QO and was willing to take a three-year deal. But now teams may also use that to try and keep Arrieta, Cobb, etc. at 3 or 4 years, and if that's the case, the Phillies should probably be interested (if guardedly, because of the draft pick).

If Cashner also goes to a contender at a similar price - and I'm not sure I even want him - they are already pretty much faced with a choice between the high-end and the lower-end. Garcia or Vargas might be worth adding given the lack of leftys but they would be #4-5 types. If a better pitcher is coming in trade that's okay.

[EDmuch]

There are lots of reasons for being conservative and not doing much of anything. And the Klentak seems to know all of them. But to me this lack of action is becoming concerning since I believe they should be trying to field a close to .500 team this year and not take another year of "the record does not matter because we are still rebuilding" stuff.

On a different thinking process, so what would we offer Baltimore for the rights to Machado?