2017-18 Off-season Trade/Free Agent Speculation

[zambonir]

But if Toronto is trying to win and also needs pitching for this season why would they trade Stroman? He is not a free agent until 2021 (same as Hernandez) so if they do move him, it's gonna be for a Hamels-like package (arguably Stroman is worth even more given his age and affordability). Galvis is a throw-in at best, Hernandez could certainly be in there, but "pitching prospects" would mean two of the Phillies Top 10 guys.And if they do give up and start a three-year rebuild Hernandez is less useful to them except as a placeholder.

[andyb]

Not sure if this guy will come back to the U.S., but Fangraphs has an article on an intriguing back end of the bullpen reliever candidate. Dennis Sarfarte. Been in Japan since 2010. 36 years old but was the Pacific League MVP in 2017 because he was basically unhittable (66 IP, 34 H, 10 BB, 102 K). 96 mph fastball but has 3 pitches to keep hitters off balance.

Posting fee ($10 million?) plus contract so he would not be cheap. At his age though nobody will give him more than 2-3 years. Worth thinking about.

The Best Reliever Available Might’ve Pitched in Japan | FanGraphs Baseball

Dennis Sarfate Minor, Fall, Winter & Japanese Leagues Statistics & History |...

Small edit - revised posting system is 20% of first $25 million, 17.5% of next $25 and 15% above $50 million.

So I think a 3 year/$30 million offer would have an additional $5.875 million total posting fee. Better than the old system for a guy like this who will not get $100 million plus.

[tom81]

Are you sure about that posting fee? I was under the impression that the new schedule would go into effect next year and that other players posted this year besides Ohtani would be under the $20 million schedule. If my impression is true than this whould be added incentive for Japanese teams to post non superstars this year so they could get the higher posting fee. I also thought that this was a major factor keeping the free agent market in check since you don’t really know who from Japan will get posted but will know by December 5th.

This article says it yes into effect next year.
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/hot-stove-ohtani-is-not-the-only-pitcher-from-japan-that-could-join-an-mlb-team/amp/

[tom81]

Interesting article about Ohtani and his decision.

The Most Important Ohtani Survey Question Teams Must Answer | FanGraphs Baseball

“But the question that I found most interesting on the questionnaire was related to “player development, medical, training and player performance philosophies and cap abilities.”

A new found strength of the Phillies with the hire of Gabe Kapler?

[zambonir]

I'm still wondering if the Phillies have even bothered to hire a translator.

[tom81]

I'm still wondering if the Phillies have even bothered to hire a translator.

Some real positive thinking there zambinir

My warm fuzzy thinking has Yusei Kikuchi being posted this year and we go hard for him and Ohtani picking up two young lefty starters that we need.

[andyb]

Ohtani picking up two young lefty starters that we need

Ohtani throws righty - only bats lefty. But I am totally with your strategy of course. Or Sarfate that I posted above. We do need another back end bullpen option.

[zambonir]

Things will probably pick up after the non-tenders, but it seems like teams are also managing their 40-man rosters very carefully. Get through that and the Rule V and then start dropping and adding more decisively.

Maybe it's also that the Yankees tend to be a pacesetter and they are busy with their manager.

[LoneStarPhan]

Things do seem to be going slower this year, but thinking back, it probably is not much different than many past years. The past two off seasons seem to have gotten off to a fast start and as Phillies phans, we saw our team make at least one trade before Thanksgiving in each of the past two off seasons.

[flyers19rw]

IDK if it is feasible but I'm sort of warming to the idea of signing Mike Moustakas. He could put up some serious long ball numbers in CBP. It would mean the end of the Franco experiment but it may be time to do that anyway.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

Compare Moustakas numbers to Franco at the same ages.
Kansas City should have given up on Moustakas years ago.
Even after a big year from Moustakas, Lifetime slash lines.
Moustakas .251/.305/.425 .730 OPS
Franco .247/.300/.426 .726 OPS

[tom81]

I’d rather play Freddy and J.P. at SS and 3b than get Moustakas.

[andyb]

Moustakas .251/.305/.425 .730 OPS
Franco .247/.300/.426 .726 OPS

Moustakas can field though, even in the years he could not hit. Franco has been worth 2.3 WAR in his career (almost 3 seasons). 0.7 WAR per year. Moustakas has been worth 11.4 WAR over a little more than 5.5 seasons or close to 2 WAR per year.

Now I am not advocating signing Moustakas because I don't think he is that good. But he has been better than Franco and was better than Franco in his first 3 years when he averaged a .681 OPS but totaled 4.1 WAR. It might be worth giving Franco another year to see if he improves, but we need to face facts that he is currently terrible.

[zambonir]

https://sports.yahoo.com/four-reasons-mlbs-hot-stove-lukewarm-022841950.html

I'm sure most people saw this on MLB Trade Rumors, but we're definitely not imagining it.

[LoneStarPhan]

December 1st: the deadline for making contract offers to players who are arbitration eligible.

By tonight there will be additional players who are free agents. I think this is how the Phillies were able to sign Werth. If I recall correctly, he was non-tendered and became a free agent.

[JohnKruk1]

Can someone please explain why we aren't trying to get Stanton and flip him for trout? Or why I havent seen this anywhere else? Anytime I bring this up to friends they just say this isnt fantasy baseball.

So the rumor I saw with the giants was them giving up Joe panik(Cesar hernandez), Chris Shaw(Dylan Cozens), and Tyler beede(Kevin Gowdy) for Stanton and Dee Gordon. We have plenty of cash to take on the contract, Stanton goes home to LA, and we don't lose one major building block. All of the players I listed in parenthesis seem pretty darn comparable to what the giants are giving up. Convince the angels that they have no shot at re signing Mike Trout (which is probably true and easy if they've watched any eagles game this year), what else is there to discuss??

At that point Nick Williams and Altherr both become expendable for starting pitching. It doesn't matter who is playing the other corner spot if you have odubel in RF and the BEST player in baseball in CF.

Who knows maybe I'm just crazy, but it makes perfect sense to me.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

Because, your friends are right.
Why wouldn't the Angels just trade for Stanton and keep Trout? He's only under contract for three more years, having Stanton would soften the blow of losing him. The Angels need a 2nd Baseman, they could also take on Dee Gordon.

[allentown]

Plus, Stanton has a full no trade clause. He isn't going to agree to come to Philly and then agree to be flipped -- that would be insulting. We'd be left with an extremely disgruntled Stanton.

[JohnKruk1]

Because the angels can't afford Stanton. That's why we come in to take on the money and send the players who are expendable to us.

Maybe then call it a 3 team trade rather then trade and flip if that offends the man making 350 million dollars so much

[zambonir]

Stanton's not coming to Philadelphia. Not to play here, not to get flipped. And if they sold him on the former there'd be no chance of the latter. It couldn't even happen unless the Marlins wanted to make it happen (as the Marlins would have to be willing to involve the Angels, they have to give permission for any team to talk to Stanton).

Not to mention the Angels wouldn't trade Trout for him. If they trade Trout they'll be rebuilding. Stanton would only work for them it they keep Trout, they have him for three more seasons. A 31 year-old Stanton on a Trout-less Angels team with seven years left on his deal (even at a huge discount) doesn't look so good.