PhilliesPhans.com

Did anyone see this piece at mlbtraderumors.com? A Seattle writer has some nice things to say about Raooooool and tries to explain his performance in Philly (vs. Seattle). I thought it was interesting.

Link?

I was surprised the writer didn't mentioned the effect of hitting in a great lineup.

I was surprised when the writer, who seemed Sabr-savvy, didn't mention that a good hitter could be a great hitter for two months just because of the small sample size. He did it for 3 months in June/July/Aug 2002 (and again in June 2006). And the park DOES help him a bit with his numbers, too, in comparison with Seattle, so it even looks better than it is.

I don't think he'll hit 17 HR in a two month period for the rest of his career, honestly, but thank goodness he did it now for us.

Road OPS this season is 1.05 and with almost identical AB, he has one more HR on the road than at home. So the success does not seem to be due to CBP.

In prior years he had somewhat better OPS on the road than at Safeco, and the difference was large in 2007. However, last year he hit better in Safeco than on the road, by about 25 OPS points and had 5 more HR at home in fewer AB than he had on the road.

His performance for the first two months of this season is very strange. How many guys have career years at his age? I don't think the AL pitching is that much better. It's possible that Manuel has refined his hitting a tad, but the change seems big for that.

Yes, two months is not a big sample size, but it isn't super small either.

I actually think it is simpler than that. Yes, it is odd that his best period is at age 37, but other than those 2 months his best period was at age 34-36. Something either changed or clicked 3 years ago with this guy, and while I dont expect him to continue at his OPS+ of 173, I think something around 130 is credible. He was in the mid 120s for the last 3 seasons and now he has a much better lineup around him.

I have never bought into the concerns of this guys age, he has gotten better in his mid 30s and I think part of that is his reputation as a "workout junkie".

Even his defense has been OK, not the unmitigated disaster it was rumored to be.

same sort of question was brought up another site. The blogger is making a statement about the effect of steroids on the culture of baseball and makes his point by saying, how can we not look at what the 37-year-old Raul Ibáñez is doing and speculate about steroids? I blogged a little about it on my site too and the truth is, sadly, we must speculate about Raul because it's gotten to the point that we just can't know anymore.

here's the link to the blog that posted the Raul question:

http://itsaboutthemoney.blogspot.com/20 ... can-i.html

Loved this quote:

I think that has a huge part to do with his success. It is very similar to Aaron Rowand a couple of seasons ago. He was an all-star as a "complementary" piece of this lineup and now is relied upon to be the #3 hitter for the Giants. Ibáñez was expected to be THE guy for the Mariners and he now thrives in a role where the opposition has to worry about other guys in our lineup.

I found it. When Raul hits with runners on, he hits at this level consistently over the last three years. Last year, there were only 671 runs scored by Seattle. There were not nearly the number of base runners. Add to that the improved lineup and you should not be talking about much of an improvement in Raul.

See for yourself.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/s ... e=batting3

I'd tend to believe this is a big part of the explanation, along with small sample size fluctuation. Although, his OPS with bases empty right now is 1.144. That might be due to sample size, and his runners on OPS (1.074) might continue...

I thought Sabr-savvy people claim that protection in a line-up is overrated.

At least we got him and not the Mets.

Big turn around from all the belly aching over his contract and PtB.

He likes to hit with men on base. Getting a lot more situations like that than in Seattle.