The New New Unending Flyers thread

[Austinfan]

You need cheap depth as well as stars.
Where do you think a lot of that depth comes from? Developing players in the AHL.

Go look at the Pens Cup winning teams.

[LegoDoom]

You need cheap depth as well as stars.
Where do you think a lot of that depth comes from? Developing players in the AHL.

Go look at the Pens Cup winning teams.

The Mario/Jagr teams or the Crosby/Malkin teams? Depth is the easy part.

[bigegypt0417]

The Pens?

They Had Crosby, Malkin and Letang and Fleury in goal.

That's almost a historical core of stars.

When you start with those types of players...it's fairly easy to build around them.

Your comparison is apples to trout.

[flyers19rw]

Kolosov is 23 years old at a position where experience matters. He has shown some promise while here. If the organization didn't think so, they''d just cut bait with him now and totally let him go free which would be silly since he still is an asset. Now all they need to do is offer him a QO at the end of next season and they retain his rights which they probably will do. Like other Russians who faltered with the organization such as Rubtsov or Vorobyev these players can become useful chips in future trades.

[zambonir]

I'm just going from what's been reported throughout the season. Flyers are soured on him and vice-versa, even if they managed to smooth it out by carrying three goalies most of the year (and he helped them tank!). Certainly true they could just stash him over there next year and see, though the QO would hardly be certain because he wouldn't be worth the $ as a back-up. I think he just gets traded in July (or June) especially since Fedotov has minimal trade value. They are going to add another goalie at the NHL level, and only need one of the Russians in the AHL. Kolosov won't report, and Fedotov is going to be unhappy when it happens (but if he clears he clears).

[zambonir]

Whelp, Edmonton pick seems headed for 29/30 if not 31/32.

[Docs]

Briere needs to take a lesson from Howie on trade value. Last year's first rounder should not have been dealt straight up for this year's first rounder, there should have been some additional asset acquired in the trade for the Flyers. I hope Briere does his homework and legwork before the draft if he wants to move up this year and not wait until an opportunity to present itself. Howie is overly prepared on draft day and does not stop calling to see what it will take to trade up, which is why he is so successful from a value standpoint.

[bigegypt0417]

I'm not really sure you can use how NFL picks are traded with the NHL. The NFL you are trading for players in the first who will probably start the next season and are more valuable.

NHL picks are kids who may play in college or their leagues for two more years.

I don't think it's apples to apples.

[zambonir]

But it was the 32nd pick that belonged to the Cup winner so there was a fair amount of value in the possibility of it being a better pick, and value for the Flyers in having it as a 2025 asset since they are now interested in trades that they wouldn't have been last year. It was protected through 12; I suppose the Flyers could have asked for reverse protection, but that probably wouldn't have gotten them more than a fifth or sixth rounder.

I think the difference is not so much the developmental timeline of these players as the fact that the back half picks are not super valuable and the team's offering them at the deadline are always going to be playoff teams.

[flyers19rw]

For whatever reason, the Flyers FO fell in love with this draft class. They must have seen more value at the end of the first round this year than last season's. Time will tell if they made the correct move. Let's see how it turns out. If it busts, it'll be time to ditch Flahr and his scouting staff if not others in the FO. The Flyers simply can not blow this year's draft after all that they've bet on it.

[bigegypt0417]

But did they?

They accumulated the picks...sure.. but the can easily flip these for future picks or to move up and down. This is a decent class but I think they accumulated the assets that were available.

I still think they only use about half the picks in the first two rounds on players.

[Docs]

I don't think the value chart is the same, however the concept of this year's pick is more valuable than next year's pick in the same position because it means the player will contribute one year sooner. That is the conventional wisdom that I'm referring to, not so much the Jimmy Johnson draft value chart.

[Docs]

i also concede that maybe the value to the flyers was the hope that it wouldn't turn into the 32nd pick this year so maybe it was enough. Worst case it is the same position.

That said, if Edmonton does win the cup, maybe the flyers can keep trading this pick every year to whoever wants to win the cup the following year.

[zambonir]

Yeah I don't think they stockpiled two late picks to use them on players or due to the perceived value of the class. Perhaps their actions will suggest otherwise, but more likely they wanted them for either a two-for-one swap/move-up or to to use one in a trade for a player. And if neither thing happens I can still see them pushing it forward one more year, especially with the RFA offer option also existing (which would cost the Flyers their own 2026 pick at most interesting levels). Should Edmonton make the Cup final that may increase that likelihood as well.

The hockey timeline does mean the one year sooner value is not the same as in the NFL, especially once you get out of the Top 10. But also different for a rebuilding a hockey team than a win-now NFL.

[flyers19rw]

If Briere moves either of the later first round picks he needs to get something really worthwhile in return. The chic thing right now is to berate this draft class. The top six picks should end up as good players. Then there is a bunch from pick twelve to twenty- five that have some potential to be 2Cs and second pair defensemen. Is there a Bedard, Cellebrini or Michkov in this draft? No. However there is some good talent available. Depends on scouting and sensible decision making by the FO

[LegoDoom]

Yeah I don't think they stockpiled two late picks to use them on players or due to the perceived value of the class. Perhaps their actions will suggest otherwise, but more likely they wanted them for either a two-for-one swap/move-up or to to use one in a trade for a player. And if neither thing happens I can still see them pushing it forward one more year, especially with the RFA offer option also existing (which would cost the Flyers their own 2026 pick at most interesting levels). Should Edmonton make the Cup final that may increase that likelihood as well.

The hockey timeline does mean the one year sooner value is not the same as in the NFL, especially once you get out of the Top 10. But also different for a rebuilding a hockey team than a win-now NFL.

I see where you are coming from and I haven't given this too much thought, but I'm not sure I agree with it. Yes, the NFL is more win-now because their prospects are older when they are drafted. And yes, NFL first round picks have other benefits to them being taken in the first round.

But there is still something to be said for the NHL to currently draft well in how a player could fill out (both physically and with skill). You are still losing a year of not being able to shape an athlete.

[zambonir]

Well, you're not necessarily losing that year in hockey because your draft picks often stay in junior or college for a year or two (or in Europe for that matter), and they certainly do when they are picked in the 20s. But I think it's more about the Flyers not needing to win now (and the Eagles almost always being win now because they're actually good). They didn't want to start the development clock on two players (and their ELCs) this past year and they also knew they weren't ready to wheel and deal this past year.

I also don't think it's going to be hard to get something "worthwhile" for one of these picks. Any competent young NHL player is still worth more than an uncertain 30th draft pick, and certainly any RFA offer would be. A trade-up/compression just depends on what the that looks like, and for whom. I still think trading the 30th pick for two seconds (maybe one this year one next year) perfectly reasonable too.

[LegoDoom]

Well, you're not necessarily losing that year in hockey because your draft picks often stay in junior or college for a year or two (or in Europe for that matter), and they certainly do when they are picked in the 20s.

Teams do still have a little control even if they aren't hitting the minors or NHL immediately, but you aren't wrong and maybe it's not as big of a deal.

I also believe this is a decent draft from roughly pick 20-40. Now they Flyers certainly don't need all of the picks they have, but I don't like kicking the can down to the next year or two and giving up value, either.

[Docs]

Any competent young NHL player is still worth more than an uncertain 30th draft pick

I would rather risk drafting a bust if their upside is top line forward or first pair defender than trade for a mid line forward and/or third pair defender whose potential is more known. I would be ok with trading up around 12 and getting two prospects at (six and 12) that the team feels good about, i think they have enough second round picks that trading back doesn’t make sense to me. If they trade back less than ten spots fine, but i wouldn’t trade with a good team where the picks are second half of the second round. Those picks are very low probability to turn into the guys this team needs, and they already have four next year alone.

[zambonir]

But how many 30th picks ever have that upside/ceiling on paper on draft day? I hear you on them not needing a glut of seconds. But there are a lot of different things they can do.

Just for a goalie alone (both to get one and, perhaps, to unload Fedotov's $ if they want to spend that on something else) they might use several.

I think they are taking Desnoyers and hoping he's either a 2C or replaces Couts (the current Couts) in the long run. Not sure there's another C to take after that but maybe if you trade the other 2 too get into the top 15 there's a wing.

Also of note today:

NHL reveals offer sheet compensation thresholds for 2025-26 season

I left out the two highest ones:

$1,544,425 to $2,340,037 Third-round pick

$2,340,038 to $4,680,076 Second-round pick

$4,680,077 to $7,020,113 First- and third-round picks

$7,020,114 to $9,360,153 First-, second-, and third-round picks

Flyer would certainly be in a position to get both a second-category guy and a third-category guy, if they wanted to. But also could be again next year.