Phillies Sign SS Trea Turner

[andyb]

27 million is really nothing at the end of this dea

It is something - though imagine the CBT could be pushing $300 million by then assuming a 3%-5% annual increase.

[Dirk41]

That's what I was referring to. They may be paying middling players not much less at that time

[allentown]

That's our major off-season need addressed.

[andyb]

That's our major off-season need addressed.

Improves the offense AND defense in one move. Plus Turner's speed could be really important in the pitch clock/3 throws to 1B era.

We still need to add a starter though. I think we would love for Painter and somebody else to throw meaningful innings, but at the same time we'll need to rely on our top starters for more, including counting on Ranger to make the leap to more of a 180 IP guy.

I am fine with not replacing Bryce now. Just add a starter and a couple of bullpen arms.

[Austinfan]

Welp, 2030-2033 is gonna be real interesting, hopefully they'll have a great farm system by then and can platoon Harper at DH and Turner has the arm to platoon at 3B.

But looks great for 2023-2029!

[phillychuck]

7 posts were merged into an existing topic: Discussion of he racial composition of the 2023 Phils

[andyb]

Welp, 2030-2033 is gonna be real interesting

We'll clearly have to figure out how to pay Painter and Abel big bucks - but it will be a nice problem to have.

ESPN is a fan:

Another NL East winter meetings splash! Grading Trea Turner's $300 million deal...

[allentown]

But looks great for 2023-2029!

And that's the point. Rather than do a 1-season pop-up, as was the Marlins specialty and the Phillies have also had, the team wants an extended period of 'up' and then the inevitable rebuild. Hopefully, DD will handle the 'up' period better on the farm than his predecessors did during the last golden age, which did provide 4 seasons at the crest.

Losing the draft pick to sign Turner, plus the $1 million in international, means it will be very difficult to add to the talent of a relatively weak farm this season. The upside is that if we were going to lose draft picks, this is the year to do it since we are still in peak of contention and the second-rounder isn't much different than our 3rd-rounders of a few years ago, given our draft order after making WS (I'm not that concerned about the 4th-rounder).

The Phillies can hope to fill some of the void with excellent development/scouting staff but the combination of (hopefully) poor draft position over the next half dozen years, the way MLB allots international $, and the possibility the Phillies won't be able to resist other comped FA or trades of our better prospects during that 6-year period make the arrival of substantial quality internal talent unlikely. This current crest 80% certain to be followed by a true rebuild. The goal is to stay atop the crest longer than last time and, especially, make the rebuild FAR shorter than the last one, which was botched from the get-go. That responsibility, other than passing on a reasonably sound farm, will be the responsibility of DD's successor.

[andyb]

I get the feeling Correa might get closer to $400 million now. The length of his likely deal just increased.

[allentown]

We do have more diverse prospects coming with Rojas and Crawford to start with. Maybe even Hao Yu Lee!

Lee and Rojas probably our #4/5 prospects for me, but #1-3 are White, so not much change from the farm near-term.

"Just don't think the team cares." I tend to agree. It may be worse, though. The Phillies ownership may still have the view that non-White, high-paid players aren't a sell with fans or local media.

"I get the feeling Correa might get closer to $400 million now." Very possible, like $360 mill. Honestly, wouldn't you rather give $40 mill to Correa for 9 years (or possibly 10) than give $43 million to Verlander for 2 years. I would.

[andyb]

I would probably do the 9-year Correa deal. We are betting a bit on Turner's athleticism (and the 25% lower AAV).

I am happy we got one of them at least. I feel Swanson will be overpaid off a career year and Boegarts will have to move off of SS earlier. We are at least protected there, though a part of me might have bought a plan that acquired a cheaper 2B and then went out and got Rodon and some bullpen arms.

When it is only money of course we want them to spend more. At least we are not in that middle ground of spending money on second tier free agents not good enough to move the needle. Kind of wish we had that $100 million for Castellanos back to spend on pitching. Once we had Schwarber it really did not move the needle enough to add another DH type.

One thing DD has done systematically is make us stronger up the middle. Realmuto, Turner, Stott, and Marsh will all play average defense at worst. Without shifting those middle infielders with range are a little more important.

[bkeich]

Wow.

Is this still Harper's team or is it now Turner's team?

[Aquapong]

Turner is good for a SS now, but his arm will only really allow him to move to 2b later. With much of his game predicated on speed, I also worry about him losing it. It seems the last few years are basically write off years to get him to sign, but regardless I don’t expect this contract to age well.

[bkeich]

Well, people are worried about the last few years, honestly it isn't that bad. But would 8 year, $240M be easier to swallow? That sounds ok. I know he has a FNTC but that doesn't mean he can't be traded, just means he has to approve. Maybe we dump him and a prospect on some low revenue, need salary to reach the minimum threshold team (which will probably exist by then).

And if Turner can stay at least at 2B or CF he is at least viable probably in his late 30s when WAR might be $15M

[zambonir]

The extra years weren't for him, they were for the Phillies. He for sure would have preferred eight years $240 (okay maybe not that low but MLBTR had him at 8 years $268).

That it will be dead money by then is moot. He and Bryce will either both be elsewhere by then or they will be very expensive clubhouse leaders/DHs/bench players, whether the team is good by then or not.

[andyb]

Looks like Turner's arm strength is about average. There are 33 players with at least 300 throws from SS last year and he is 19th:

Statcast Arm Strength Leaderboard

Interestingly Swanson ranks last (33rd). Correa 4th and Boegarts 25th. JP Crawford only 22nd. Stott is a bit better than Turner at 14th though likely has less range at this point. It does beg the question of whether they should be flipped in 2-3 years though I imagine that will be tough to do absent any injuries that hurt Turner's defense.

[ahb]

Law likes the deal but suggests moving Turner to 2nd now and keeping Stott and short:

Law: Where should the Phillies play Trea Turner?

[andyb]

Cot's has us about $25 million under the CBT with placeholders for arbitration and minimum salaried players on the rest of the roster. Assume there is no way we stay under as we likely add a starter and a couple of relievers and even if they snuck in under that $25 million limit we'd probably go $5-$10 million over with injury moves throughout the year.

MLB Philadelphia 23

[bkeich]

Law likes the deal but suggests moving Turner to 2nd now and keeping Stott and short:

theathletic.com

Law: Where should the Phillies play Trea Turner?

Signing Turner gives the Phillies some options, especially without any other middle infield help on the roster or in the high minors.

To me this is almost a "who cares". Let them figure out in training camp which is better defensively, I know one is a 2nd year player and one is one of the highest paid players in the game, but honestly this should be these 2 guys, the manager and whoever is in charge of infield defense. We know what the DP combo is, it is just a matter of who stands where, I think it probably is pretty close and in all honesty if Stott doesnt improve it will be a non issue.

[zambonir]

It will be interesting to see what they do now for both a starter and a second bullpen piece. I assume one high-mid level bullpen guy is a given but they might settle for someone rising out of the pack internally (or have faith in Brogdon already) otherwise. They could also still get back Robertson cheaply I'd think.

I gotta think Turner signed to play SS, at least for now. Supposedly the Giants want Correa to play SS but intended to keep Crawford there if they signed any of the other guys. But not all those guys necessarily want to do that. And didn't the Sox just move someone else to 2B in order to keep Bogaerts at SS last year?