Phillies Sign Odubel Herrera to Multi-Year Contract!

[zambonir]

Seems like a good deal for both teams. if he falters or gets injured he's got a lot of money coming. In exchange for that security he's giving some up should the Phillies want to pick up one or both of those options.

And yeah it sure makes him tradeable but probably not in the next two years, even w/o a NTC there had to be some level of commitment in the negotiations (and gratitude on Herrera's part)

Presumably we'll be having this same conversation about Franco a year from now, if all goes well.

Obviously Herrera doesn't have to stay in center but this also does make Roman Quinn a bit more tradeable (and suggests the Phillies are still, understandably, worried about his durability).

[Lucky_Beagle]

I still question whether Victorino should be considered a Rule 5 player. If memory serves me right he passed through waivers and was even offered back to his original team. He was not wanted by any organization with the Rule 5 conditions.

[bkeich]

You are correct, the Phils didnt "keep him" and he passed through Waivers and the Dodgers didnt want him back so the Phils sent him to the minors where he really put things together fast.

I still count him as a Rule V because that is how we acquired him, I almost count the other part as a waiver / DFA. I bet there were alot of teams that wished they had ponied up the $50K.

George Bell was also a very good player that the Phils lost in the Rule V draft in 1980. He went on to have a pretty good career (12 years, 113 OPS+, 20 WAR) (The Rule V was very different then, it was only 2 years after he was signed)

[tom81]

I really like this deal. Odubel is the face of the franchise now IMO.

[zambonir]

You are correct, the Phils didnt "keep him" and he passed through Waivers and the Dodgers didnt want him back so the Phils sent him to the minors where he really put things together fast.

I still count him as a Rule V because that is how we acquired him, I almost count the other part as a waiver / DFA. I bet there were alot of teams that wished they had ponied up the $50K.

I guess you have to say the Phillies were smart to take him but dumb to return him. And then lucky.

Question is, would his career have gone differently had he been forced to spend all of 2005 in the majors (without the bad team/playing time that was here for Herrera)?

And would some of the Phillies' moves have gone differently had he not developed? That one is hard to say, as they traded Marlon Byrd, acquired Aaron Rowand and traded away Abreu, but I'm not sure Vic's performance in either AAA or '06 emboldened them to do any of those things, even though he wound up replacing Abreu (and eventually Rowand too).

[flyers19rw]

I like this deal. Now we will start to see the franchise of the future starting to come into view. Franco and Herrera are two of the position players. This season should bring along opportunities for others-JPC, Joseph, Alfaro, and, perhaps, Quinn.

[julio]

As usual, while the Philly beat writers reported a few basics, and then turned to fluff and nothing, the real reporters at the AP have dug out the details of the Herrera contract:

Herrera receives a $1.75 million signing bonus payable by Dec. 31 and $1.25 million next season, the last before he would have been eligible for salary arbitration.

He will make $3 million in 2018, $5 million in 2019, $7 million in 2020 and $10 million in 2021 -- when he would have been eligible for free agency. The Phillies have an $11.5 million option for 2022 with a $2.5 million buyout. If that is exercised, the team would have a $12.5 million option for 2023 with a $1 million buyout.

Herrera, Phillies agree to a $30.5 million, 5-year ...

[Austinfan]

Basically if Herrera were to become a FA in 2021 at age 29, if he was still a 3 WAR player, he'd probably get a 5 year, $100M deal depending how he aged (i.e. could he still play CF or would he move to LF). Because going forward teams would project around 12-13 WAR (a dropoff after age 30). I predict the combination of a "hard" salary cap and revenues flatlining will end outrageous FA contracts (because you can't escalate out of cap hell).

So instead he gets $34M for those first three years (assuming he's worth the options, otherwise he might be playing for $3-5M at best as a reserve OF) instead of say $60M. Meanwhile he gets $3+M early that he wouldn't get and guarantees his arbitration years.

So he's essentially leaving $20-30M on the table five years out he might never see to guarantee $30M.
If he plans to return to LA after his career is over, he's guaranteed enough money to live like a king, while getting enough money early to take care of himself and his family - so it comes down to what you value - money you need now or money you might want but shouldn't need (unless you piss everything away) later.

[zambonir]

As usual, while the Philly beat writers reported a few basics, and then turned to fluff and nothing, the real reporters at the AP have dug out the details of the Herrera contract:

Good find. But the nature of the beast. It still takes a leaker more than true digging. National writers have sources in the MLB office, and agents. Local writers are more at the team's mercy (I'm sure Salisbury's "major league source" was within the Phillies, and he and Zolecki both work for companies that are financial partners with the team).

Of course now the Philly papers (and remember, they only have one beat writer between them) can just use AP's info, since they are an AP member.

If it was a bigger-name player or the Phillies were contenders, presumably someone like Rosenthal would have had it (as it is it's not even on the Fox Sports' MLB home page).

[donaldorc]

I am delighted by this signing. I think the terms of the agreement are justifiable, and I am glad that they have him sewed up for the next number of years. They could, of course, trade him, but at this point his future is with the Phillies. I know he has his distractors, but I love the energy he brings to the diamond. I think he has made the necessary adjustments to be a great contributor over the next few years. I hve always agreed with California Dreamin's assessment of him, and love that he was a rule 5 find.

[julio]

I am delighted by this signing. I think the terms of the agreement are justifiable, and I am glad that they have him sewed up for the next number of years. They could, of course, trade him, but at this point his future is with the Phillies.

The terms of the agreement are way beyond "justifiable," IMHO - unless you're talking about Herrera being able to justify them to his family!

They're overpaying Odubel (by about 1/2 million) for 2017, since he's not yet arbitration-eligible. Given his actual performance, his 2018-2020 salaries are likely in the general ballpark of what he'd command year-to-year during his arbitration years. The 2021-2023 numbers? If Herrera continues to produce at his current rate, those salaries are a steal for the Phillies.

[LoneStarPhan]

Yes, but if Herrera tanks, gets hurt, or whatever, and suddenly is not in the starting lineup, he gets the guaranteed money. If you make the guaranteed contract pay the projected earnings assuming he continues to play at the same or even better level, then the club is usually the loser. The Phillies get a potential bargain while Herrera gets guaranteed money that will change the his life and the lives of his loved ones.

[andyb]

They actually are paying Herrera $3 million for 2017 with the bonus included. So part of this deal was really overpaying him by $2+ million in the first year. This is smart frontloading by the Phillies and was probably one of the reason Herrera agreed to a very team friendly deal.

[julio]

They actually are paying Herrera $3 million for 2017 with the bonus included. So part of this deal was really overpaying him by $2+ million in the first year. This is smart frontloading by the Phillies and was probably one of the reason Herrera agreed to a very team friendly deal.

The bonus is payable in 2016 - by 12/31 at the latest. We could consider that part of his 2017 compensation...or not. I agree that fronting the bonus makes the deal more attractive to Herrera - the net present value is more attractive than had those dollars been spread.

Regardless - the Phils have committed $30.5 million to Herrera, for five years. That's $500k more than they paid Ryan Howard for just 2016 (including the 2017 buyout). In other words, it's not enough to create any significant constraint on their overall salary budget, in any of the contract years. If Herrera turns into Steve Jeltz, it's an unproductive sunk cost - but not enough of a sunk cost to create problems. If he continues to produce something like 4 WAR/season, it's a bargain. At the same time, if Herrera manages that money wisely (at all), he's now already financially secure for life. Anything additional - endorsements, follow-on contracts, etc. - is gravy. Good deal for everybody.

Further - quite likely below-market contract in the out-years, for a player who will be relatively young for the term of the contract, with no restrictions on trading him...which means the contract will be easily traded, if the Phils want to do that at some point.

I simply cannot find anything to "not like" about this deal - except perhaps that it's Herrera's name on the contract, instead of mine!

[Philsmania]

Even though I personally am not completely sold on Herrera (he does some boneheaded things sometimes), I would agree with those who say this is a smart deal.

[Phils2020]

Steve Jeltz,

good steve jeltz reference. i was just talking to someone on facebook about him being one of the worst players i have ever seen. Offensively at least, he was.

I like the Herrera deal. I am really suprised there was not a no trade clause on the deal. Now we just need some other outfielders around Herrera. I think Nick WIlliams will be there at the end of this year and Moniak when he is ready.

[andyb]

These kinds of deals are always a little bit of a risk for teams in terms of a young player getting hurt or failing, but on balance they are great for teams. Everyone jumps on giving Jon Singleton $10 million before he even played in the majors. Yes that contract looks like a failure. But it is a fraction of what Howard made last year. We also just paid Charlie Morton $9 million (including the buyout) to make 4 starts.

And the Morton deal was probably a good gamble to the team. On balance these relatively low dollar deals for young players almost always work. Even if Herrera is considered a failure, the money we are paying him for 5 years is worth about 3.5 WAR - in other words it is the change in the owner's pocket.

[harrisburghusker]

I don't see any down side to this deal and hopefully allows Odubel to relax and play like did in the first third of the last season

[zambonir]

I know it's pure mythmaking but it does seem like that would mean something to him. He's the CF. He's the Phillies best player (currently). No more doubts about his position or his future and if he occasionally still clashes with the manager it won't be a big deal.

Even though, as the Philly.com story noted today, he could be traded just as quickly as Adam Eaton was. Except it won't be because the Phillies are rebuilding, if so.

[donaldorc]

Breen: Phillies hope contract doesn't make Herrera ...

Breen thinks that the reason Herrera tailed off after the All-star break, was because his nomination went to his head, and signing this contract could do the same.

But Mackanin and general manager Matt Klentak said they have no reason to worry.

"What it boils down to is a belief in the person," Klentak said. "We believe that what Odubel has demonstrated to us over the last couple years with his work ethic and his on-field abilities and energy level, this is a player that should not be affected by a contract like this. We strongly believe that. If we didn't believe that, we would not have done this."