Phillies News and Discussion 2025 (Part 2)

[zambonir]

Well, if that's a concern he's too dumb to have his option picked up, especially since the second offense is a full season.

But I really don't think that's a big concern. The Phillies have history here. It's not like they cut ties with Freddy Galvis after his first failed test (and they even brought him back years later). And when Chooch got suspended that was actually his second offense (since there was no punishment for first offenses for that category of drugs). I don't even think he and the teams pursued a medical exemption subsequently. They also signed Marlon Byrd with a first offense hanging over him (and he eventually did have a second, much later).

JC Romero arguably was never as good after his 2009 suspension (which was for using in 2008). But that still might be the variability of relief pitching more than his baseline ability. Bastardo another one.

Kevin Frandsen was also suspended as a minor leaguer. Phillies actually had a ton of guys who were!

[julio]

Well, if that's a concern he's too dumb to have his option picked up, especially since the second offense is a full season.

He's a professional baseball player. He's a young male. Foolish choices, and a sense of invulnerability... more or less come with the territory? (Yes, I too was a young male once. Been there... done that. Not drugs, but other foolish choices? Risk taking? Umm...)

[zambonir]

He's not so young anymore though, by baseball standards (which would be another reason to use!). I think most guys (clearly not at all) learn their lesson after the first offense though, whether that lesson is "don't cheat" or "don't take anything you haven't run by your trainer."

At the same time I think 95% of pro athletes are still putting things in their body no normal person would otherwise choose to, whether that's supplements or, shall we say, unique dietary choices. Far fewer players are getting suspended compared to 10 or 20 years ago; is that because they've gotten smarter about not doing it or figured out other ways to do it?

[julio]

I think most guys (clearly not at all) learn their lesson after the first offense though, whether that lesson is "don't cheat" or "don't take anything you haven't run by your trainer."

Trainers can screw up, too.

At the same time I think 95% of pro athletes are still putting things in their body no normal person would otherwise choose to, whether that's supplements or, shall we say, unique dietary choices. Far fewer players are getting suspended compared to 10 or 20 years ago; is that because they've gotten smarter about not doing it or figured out other ways to do it?

The latter, I suspect. But tests also change, get more sensitive, etc.

Big money corrupts. This is not new, not revelatory.

[allentown]

Alvarado is at an age where it is very fair to ask if he can stay healthy and pitch effectively without cheating. The answer is likely that he can't. For $9 million, he's not worth the risk.

[zambonir]

They can, but in Jose's case it sounds like he really did go home and take something without checking, which was also Freddy's excuse. Unfortunately the language and culture barrier is a factor too. I think only two or three of the last 20 major leaguers to be suspended, over the past six or seven years, were not from a Latin American country.

We'll see what the Phillies really think about it all when the time comes. It would be no riskier/dumber for them to bet $8.5 million on a 31 year-old reliever coming off a PED suspension than it was to bet on Romano and Robertson (or even Strahm next season at 34 years old and just one million less than Jose's option).

[zambonir]

Well I guess they clinched the wild card first after all?

https://x.com/Phillies/status/1967367796163260734?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

[zambonir]

Poll of 20 execs, agents and scouts. Average prediction for Schwarbs roughly four years $120 million with a range of 4/100 up to 4/160 if you take out three outliers on both sides (the lowest is 4/72; the highest 7/245). One assume the agents go high (one agent predicted five year to lower AAV.

How much will Kyle Tucker and Kyle Schwarber get paid this winter? MLB insiders...

[Callison]

Wondering why Nola wasn't pulled when he started to melt, maybe Rob wanted to see him make in-game corrections when things aren't going right. Last time for that. Only cost one game.

Lazar showing he's not ready.

Looking forward to LAD games all season, but the coming series won't be all it could have been with Turner in the lineup. So it's gonna be just the LAD against most of the Phils. Like the Yanks series when the Yanks were w/o Judge, the Phils were only playing most of the Yanks.

[andyb]

Lazar showing he's not ready.

I was a little worried the first time I saw him that his success partly depended on deception and the second time around the league may not be so easy. His location was pretty bad yesterday though. Guessing Trivino (who I had barely heard of a few weeks ago) is rapidly solidifying a long man role on the playoff staff.

[Philsmania]

Back in ST, who thought Lazar would pitch in 32 games for us?

[andyb]

I thought Lazar was the next man up in Spring Training. Not really given a great chance to make the team because he had options left. We were adding Ross and Romano and had to keep Walker in the bullpen so were stashing the next tier of guys at AAA for the inevitable need.

Whether Lazar was that good was an open question of course. We kept Jose Ruiz initially because of that and he was terrible ((his stuff regressed).

[EastFallowfield]

Wondering why Nola wasn't pulled when he started to melt, maybe Rob wanted to see him make in-game corrections when things aren't going right.

Someone on the goodphight posted this from Salisbury:

“If that's an October game and he is in the rotation, I think he's out of there after five innings yesterday. I think Rob wanted to push him a little bit, much like he pushed him against the Mets to go sixth. Because he's in evaluation mode.

They're in win mode, but they're also in evaluation mode on Aaron Nola.”

[zambonir]

Unless they actually plan to leave Walker and Nola off the NLDS roster entirely it probably doesn't matter much who the the last two relievers are. There's also Buehler. And no real reason to completely sit your fourth starter if he isn't going to have to start one of the first two games of the LCS, which the way the schedule goes, is probably not the case. Will be different if they falter and end up in WC round.

Trivino has experience. Mayza is a LHP (and I assume makes the roster). Lazar probably deserved a shot last year but they went with Allard for the possible longman/mop-up situation.

[andyb]

It seems 99.99999% certain now that Luzardo is not going to the bullpen, so short of a total implosion Mayza is on the roster. They are just going to want 3 LHPs in the bullpen.

[zambonir]

Agreed, I think he is the #6 reliever. But would you rather let Ranger or Luzardo face an Ohtani or Soto for the third time, vs Banks or Mayza?

But also no ghost runner so probably crucial to have someone for extras. Same with the long man.

[andyb]

The lefties are a little less valuable with all left-handed starters, but longer games and having redundancy is the way they have operated in the past.

Also, the right-handed options are just not that great. I suppose all of Nola, Walker, and Buehler could be on the roster, but that seems overkill if a 4th starter is not needed. At the moment I guess 2 of 3 with Walker being the likely odd man out. Buehler has some decent relief experience in the playoffs and Nola makes it out of respect. And I guess a tandem start in some way with Luzardo or Suarez is possible. Just because Nola has never relieved does not mean he can't - and Walker just is not that good.

Nola's K/BB ratio is still decent and that is kind of what you want in relief rather than Walker pitching to contact.

[zambonir]

Yeah Buehler is the x factor. But Walker could still make the team as the lowest leverage guy a la Lorenzen in '23. Nola in a tandem is certainly a possibility and who's to say he wouldn't be the opener? (Depending on the team).

Save Buehler for the NLCS is my guess. With the way the OF and 2B platoons are, that extra bench guy seems like a good idea.

[andyb]

that extra bench guy seems like a good idea.

Kemp is kind of forcing his way in. Turner will replace Walton on a healthy roster and Bohm will be added. Dropping the 3rd catcher gets you down to 13 but keeping Kemp gets you to 14. Wilson has really done nothing wrong to be dropped from the roster of late and does offer more defense than Kemp. Though Kemp is the guy to get you a pinch hit home run. Not sure if we want him hitting for Stott or Marsh or Kepler against a LHP in late innings, but at least you have the option.

The bench player could be useful in extra innings. If Wilson starts he gets pinch hit for by Marsh. Then you have the Kemp option late. Is a 13th pitcher more valuable? Hard to say. Nobody in the minors seems ready to grab a pitching slot (i.e. Seth Johnson, Romano, Painter), so we are talking about dropping 1-2 pitchers from the current 14 if everyone is healthy.

[zambonir]

It was 12 pitchers last year, even with four SPs. Would presumably only be for NLDS.

Rojas is still down there in Allentown too. If you hit Castellanos for Marsh or Kepler maybe you want that card late in a game. Or as a PR in extras.