Phillies News and Discussion 2025 (Part 2)

[andyb]

That lack of secondary HR output does beg the question on the need to resign Schwarber. Remember we might be replacing Kepler with Crawford too so would lose some power in that exchange (though getting speed and defense out of it).

It would really be nice for a minor leaguer with power (like Rincones or Reyes) to emerge but it does not look like that will happen by 2026 at this point. Kemp might add a little power if he supplants Bohm, though right now does not look like a better player. He would be less expensive.

It really seems to indicate they need to sign a HR hitter somewhere if Schwarber leaves.

[zambonir]

I'm inclined to believe the recent flurry of speculation that there's simply no way Schwarber isn't coming back.

[Philsmania]

It wouldn't completely surprise me if they announce an extension before the end of this month. Not saying they will but it would not surprise me.

Schwarbs will end this season around with around 340 career HR's. Four seasons with an average of 40+ HR's over the course of those four years will give him 500 and a punched ticket to Cooperstown. Can he keep that up ages 33-37?

[zambonir]

I had the same thought, would be a fun playoff momentum gesture, but he already turned them down before the season and I doubt it could happen that quickly/easily. He wants to hit the open market, and while I believe they won't be outbid by anyone in December, they don't need to bid against themselves now.

[Austinfan]

Miller and Crawford will eventually hit for power, but it might not be until 2028.
Miller has shown some good power and both will grow into more, and Crawford is gradually adjusting his swing and approach.
Kemp also has good power, which he showed in LHV and since he returned to the Phillies.

I think Bohm is gone after this season, with Kemp, Miller probably coming up after the Allstar break and Escobar in 2027, it makes no sense to pay him real money. Nor have they missed him with Kemp/Sosa filling in. Kepler is probably gone, Marsh may stay in a platoon in RF if Crawford starts in LF. If Casty isn't traded, he's going to platoon with someone, between his awful defense and mediocre hitting against RH pitching.

I think they pretty much have to resign Bader and Schwarber. Nori may be on the way, but not until 2027 or so. Rojas hasn't shown enough improvement to write him in as a starter.

[andyb]

We don't know if Crawford will ever hit for power. Certainly we don't know that about Nori. And we don't know if Kemp will hit enough. Miller is the guy who might, but not until next year. Let's not overrate our prospects. We really do not have lots of potential power down there. It's a weakness along with starting pitching depth.

[zambonir]

If they trade Bohm they probably have to bring in a LHB 3B to platoon with either Kemp or Sosa but they could probably use one regardless.

Trading Bohm frees up money for Bader. Offloading 1/3-1/2 of Nick's $ would too. Plus they do lose Kepler so it's not really that far to go, more about the longer commitment.

[bkox]

500 and a punched ticket to Cooperstown.

I dunno. It would be awesome to see Schwarbs get inducted. But have the voters moved enough away from BA to allow a .231 career hitter who is primarily a DH to get in. Lowest career BA in the HOF now (not including pitchers) is Ray Schalk at .254. .231 is actually lower than several pitchers.

If they go by SLG and OPS hes good.

But even the newest metric, WAR.. hes struggling in. At 20 bWAR right now with over 9 of that coming that last 2 seasons. Even if he averaged 5 WAR a season.. thats only 40.. and a quick look at guys with 40 WAR in the HOF are guys who played 75+ years ago and a few veteran committee inductees like Baines and Parker

Right now Adam Dunn's career slash line is gonna be close to how Schwarbs ends, even if he somehow magically replicates 2025.

Dunn .237/.364/.490/.854 462HR 1168 RBI
Schwarbs: .231.347/.500/.847 337HR 768 RBI

Average season of 40/100 with similar 2025 stats would get him close to Dunn in BA/OBP/OPS. But Dunn isnt a HOFer. He got 0.3% of the vote in his one year and dropped off. Would the 30 or so extra homers make Schwarber one?

Of course the one other factor... Dunn (and this is surprising in this day and age with wildcards and all) never appeared in a playoff game. Schwarber has a .908 OPS in over 270 playoff plate appearances with 21 Homers. That could sway some voters

BBref similarity scores at this point dont look good either

[zambonir]

Yeah but what did those pitchers OPS?

think they have moved away from BA, but the DH thing is still tougher. OTOH nearly all the 500 HR guys who aren't in are only not because of PEDs.

Would be nice to have the conversation.

[zambonir]

Rafael Lantigua, we hardly knew ye! (Optioned for Bohm.)

[andyb]

Let's get him a ring now.

[zambonir]

@Matt_Winkelman or @julio or anyone really, I'm just curious... obviously any player is going to be thrilled for the call-up, plus the service time counts too, but I'm curious how much money he actually got paid for those four days (several of which were just spent travelling) making MLB minimum instead of non-40 man AAA pay.

[Austinfan]

Probably 4 to 5 thousand a day, minimum divided by 180 days?

[Matt_Winkelman]

Yep, probably closer to $4,000. He also he might get mlb service time for the rest of the year based on option date and remaining days in the season

[zambonir]

I know the pay is better now (and better still if you are on the 40 or declined an outright and negotiated a new deal) but before this CBA you really could make as much in one 10 or 15-day call-up as you would all year otherwise.

[julio]

Yep, probably closer to $4,000. He also he might get mlb service time for the rest of the year based on option date and remaining days in the season

Lantigua will get service time for the remaining ten days of the season (see below) - and he will not be charged with "using up an option year" (that requires 20 days on optional assignment during the regular season).

Rule 7(f)(1) stipulates:

Any player optioned to a Minor League affiliate or Spring Training
Complex after the third day following Labor Day will receive Major
League service (but not Major League salary) for the period of the
optional assignment, including for any period of designation for players
designated for assignment off of an optional assignment that occurred
after the third day following Labor Day.

This one surprised me; it's inconsistent with MLB's general stinginess to marginal players.

[zambonir]

He still has all his options then, I'm sure he will have some longevity in AAA even if he doesn't stay on the Phillies' 40 this off-season. Castro, despite being a year younger, had already burned his (as we may recall from the Phillies preserving his last one due to this same rule in '23).

[julio]

I'm sure he will have some longevity in AAA even if he doesn't stay on the Phillies' 40 this off-season.

Lantigua has been in organized baseball since 2017 (eight years if we don't count his idle 2020 "season"). If he doesn't stay on the 40-man roster, he becomes a minor-league free agent (a "six year" minor league free agent, since he's played in the required seven seasons). If he's outrighted, he could choose to re-sign with the Phils organization, but he might not.

[zambonir]

Yeah at that age, makes sense. But kind of wild to have made it that long without burning a single option. Certainly adds value to him as a minor league FA (or to get consideration to stay on the 40).

[julio]

Certainly adds value to him as a minor league FA (or to get consideration to stay on the 40).

Yep. Some organization will benefit from the flexibility of his having three options, if he can stick on a 40-man roster (ours or another).