Phillies Minor Leagues - Winter 2025-26

[andyb]

Should the Phillies put him on the 40 man to protect him from the Rule V draft? He was unpicked last year.

Guessing no. Repeating AA does not lend confidence to him staying on a major league roster all season. The stuff is also not quite what it was a couple of years ago though maybe he is easing back on the velocity to throw more strikes.

He is definitely an arm I want to keep in the system. Just don't think they lose him in the draft and there will be enough players added like Painter who could be lost.

[zambonir]

They might lose him in the draft, but they probably won't lose him lose him. If you take him and hide him as reliever, or throw him to the wolves as an MLB starter, you probably don't finish developing him. Such is the Catch-22 of Rule 5.

Painter obviously gets protected. Do they expose Castellano again?

[andyb]

Guys who are rule 5 eligible but in the mix for protection:

Painter, Rincones, McGarry, Daniel Harper (AFL), Tommy McCallum (AFL), Andrew Walliing, Rob Moore, Caleb Ricketts, Alex McFarlane, Eiberson Castellano (AFL), Andrew Baker, Jaydenn Estanista (AFL), Jack Dallas (AFL), Saul Teran

Painter is a given. Probably McFarlane too (at least to me). Next tier likely Rincones, McGarry, Harper, Castellano, maybe Estanista. They have several of these arms in Arizona but most of the relievers seem like guys that they can put on the AAA roster and bet they'll survive the major league rule 5. Rincones does feel like he serves a major league need and could get callups next year so my prediction might be Painter, McFarlane, and Rincones.

Edit - noting the 5 relievers in Arizona who are clearly getting an extra look and Castellano pitching there as opposed to VZ is probably an indication they are thinking seriously about protecting him.

Guessing Matt will write 1000 words on this at some point.....

[Matt_Winkelman]

It is kind you think it will only be 1000 words. A couple of notes:
- Castellano is a pending milb FA, he would only be R5 eligible if he signs another milb contract
- For someone like Griff you have view him being taken as ending his time in the org. He is 26 and losing an offseason and spring of dev is probably it for him. For me that decision comes down to how they view their SP depth and whether they want AAAA retreads or have it be say Cabrera and McGarry and plan around that
- McFarlane, Rincones, and Painter feel like locks to be protected

[zambonir]

So basically Castellano to AFL telegraphs that he's going on the 40 (or will if they like how it goes)?

[andyb]

Doesn't it feel like they have lots of confidence in signing AAAA retreads these days?

On Castellano I do look at the Arizona decision for him and knowing it is rare for Latino players to be placed there. Just thinking it is pretty definite he signs another minor league contract if they are sending him there. Of course Arizona is kind of a wasteland for pitching prospects beyond special circumstances like Painter last year so maybe it means very little.

[andyb]

Pope awards go to Kemp and McGarry. I thought Crawford was going to get the hitting award. Kemp was a bit better, but Crawford had more playing time and is the better prospect.

9/22/25 : Kemp and McGarry win 2025 Owens Awards!

[phillychuck]

Usually this award is not given to someone like Kemp who had extensive big-league time. Congrats to him--he’s come a long way from a UDFA signing in 2022.

I think that Kemp initially being an undrafted FA worked in his favor. Given the “investment” in acquiring him, his performance is more impressive in a sense.

[Matt_Winkelman]

Kemp has more PAs, but less games than Rojas did when he won it in 2023. Crawford won last year, so it felt unlikely he would win again given his year was great, but not so good you had to give it to him. Same thing with my preferred pitcher Jean Cabrera who was a really workhorse, but won in 21.

On the Castellano thing, I think they want to see if the stuff bounces back further from injury so they can protect or trade him. I suspect he wouldn’t cone back in straight FA, but that is a guess.

They have struggled with getting AAAA starters to sign because of the MLB depth, maybe an open competition with Wheeler delayed brings guys in, but they have had to do more waivers and small trades for AAAA depth

[andyb]

Baseball America goes with Crawford.

2025 Minor League Player Of The Year For All 30 Teams

[Austinfan]

If they think they've "fixed" McGarry they'll protect him.
It wasn't his velocity that mad him special but the combination with his off speed pitches - if he can actually throw them for strikes he has a chance to be a middle of the rotation starter.

Problem is you're looking at a relatively small sample, and McGarry, unlike McFarlane, hasn't shown he's effective in a bullpen role.

[andyb]

It is not really a question of whether they have fixed McGarry. It is really about evaluating his stuff and determining whether he could pitch in the majors next season. He is 26 years old and the stuff has regressed some since his first appearance in Reading back in 2022. He clearly has improved his command and pitching knowledge, but that is generally what you expect after stalling in the minors at similar levels for 3 extra years.

His velocity WAS part of what made him special. The path to succeed sitting 93-95 is much harder than the path at 95-97. The improved command this year was nice, but it is hard to evaluate how good he will be against age appropriate competition (which at 26 is the majors).

[andyb]

Season recap from Matt.

Phillies Minor League Monthly Retrospective – 2025 Season

[fish]

Despite the step back in velo BA ranked McGarry’s 4 seam fastball as third best in the minors based on stuff+.

Best Minor League Fastballs Per Stuff+ In 2025

“ McGarry has outlier extension, release and bi-directional movement traits that are unique.”

[Austinfan]

Wonder if they encouraged him to lower the velo to gain more command?
Young pitchers often overthrow b/c the radar gun (and posting it on the scoreboard) seduces them to chase velocity instead of whiffs.

[Matt_Winkelman]

My tracked velocity for McGarry by season:
21: 93-96 T97
22: 93-98 T100
23: 91-99
24: 92-98
25: 92-97 T99

Much of the year I have him sitting 94-97 with some fading over the course of starts. He was a touch higher as a reliever at times last year. This year he is releasing the ball a bit lower and a bit wider with a touch less extension, which has gotten a better approach angle.

So in other words they have not had him throwing less hard for better command.

[fish]

My tracked velocity for McGarry by season:
21: 93-96 T97
22: 93-98 T100
23: 91-99
24: 92-98
25: 92-97 T99

That made me go look to see what data was available for his average fastball velo over the years- it’s only available fo A ball and AAA, but true enough, he hasn’t strayed much from an average fastball velo of 94

[Austinfan]

They did do that with Sanchez, had him dial back, then once he smoothed out his mechanics he gradually increased his velocity.
Question with McCarry is what changed his last 8 or so starts?

[Matt_Winkelman]

It is consistency, a lot of it is mental, and some is luck and sequencing of events. He struggled both physically and mentally from the stretch (part of why I don’t think he is a reliever), and just got hammered with runners on base (a lot of parallels with Jesus Luzardo). This goes back to college, but Griff can get emotional and overthrow when things go poorly, and the catchers and he got better at pausing and refocusing (if you look at logs you will see times he walks a guy and then immediately loses the zone before then striking out the next few guys). As we saw with Luzardo, the best way to deal with struggles with men on base is to prevent them from getting on.

This next bit is a bit more anecdotal, but he looked very good to start, then had the minor injury and it took a bit to get everything in groove. He re-added his sweeper this year (to the cutter and curveball) and by the end of the year it was a monster pitch. So I think down the stretch you saw a guy who started to have things click more, built some confidence, and that started to mitigate his largest weakness.

[phillychuck]

I think finding a really effective sweeper was the key. He said that in some interview I read on one of the sites I think. Like Matt said, his sweeper is now possibly his best pitch. No one really hit it hard.