NLDS vs Dodgers 2025

[zambonir]

Ruben was speculating that Ranger might be injured and they have now announced Nola for G3.

[Callison]

The thing I like about this team is that it has character.

[andyb]

Powder Blues tonight. 6-1 record in them this season. Needed special permission to wear them on the road even though the original ones were their road uniforms.

Phillies to wear powder blue uniforms for NLDS in LA

[EastFallowfield]

Growing up in the era when they wore those on the road all the time, and only Sunday home games were on TV, feel like I’ve seen them lose in those way too much already, including in the playoffs at Dodger Stadium.

[zambonir]

Hey, why not? The uniform thing is funny because they are 41-40 in the road grey and 55-26 in the others, i.e. road vs home. The powders def have best winning % over city and cream and pins.

I'm a big fan of the powder blues, i know some aren't. I would also like more maroon back. I guess your era is your era.

I guess if we were wearing the greys in '08 and '09 that would be better luck.

[zambonir]

Fair point but they were wearing them when they won Games 4 and 5 of the '80 NLCS, and in KC as well. I think in my child brain that erases all the earlier pain.

[zambonir]

Interesting read. Locker location/space based on service time (also correlating with $ in most cases).

Inside the Phillies’ home clubhouse, where they hope to return: Who sits where...

[zambonir]

> According to Baseball sabermetrician Tango Tiger, a successful bunt would have actually hurt the Phils’ chance to win the game. The Phils had a 43.8% chance to win when Stott was at-bat and would have had a 41.6% chance to win with Castellanos on third and one out. It’s hard to reason why the Phils did it.

What the bunt? | Extra Innings in Red October

[BaseballCat]

What I want to see tonight, besides a win, is some fight through out the game. I would rather go down fighting than a whimper. Not saying they are not playing hard, but I want to feel we have a chance. Getting my bratwurst, peanuts and beer ready. Let’s go Powder Blue Phils!

[BostonRoss]

Those percentages are, of course, based on assumptions, either that everyone is an average hitter (and runner) in the specific situation or some additional assumptions that haven't been documented. Is the 43.8% based on an average hitter's likely outcomes, or Stott's specific likely outcomes against that pitcher at that time? And Bader's and Kepler's and Turner's likely outcomes afterwards? And Castellanos being the runner on 3B or 2B? Does it consider that Castellanos has a lower probability of scoring from 2B on a single than an "average" runner? Considering all that (which probably requires information that is not really known), the change in win probability might have been positive--or more negative.

Sorry for the mini-rant, as someone who develops mathematical models for a living, I've seen too many people ignore the impacts of the simplifications required in the assumptions. It makes things worse when we express these probabilities so precisely.

[zambonir]

Well, you are obviouly more qualified than I but don't these WP models run every possible situation, hundreds of times, to come up with the number. In the end I reckon the 3% prob difference isn't big enough to noet let the manager go with his gut anyway. The unscientific analysis - that they should not have been playing for the tie - the way things were going - is more compelling.

But mostly, they got beat by the Dodgers making a play, just like they got beat by the bats and arms at other key points.

[EastFallowfield]

Kinda weird to have the early game today, late afternoon after an evening game (out there in LA). The dreaded shadows.

[BostonRoss]

It’s so we can watch the Eagles

[andyb]

We are the second biggest TV draw after the Yankees and they don't put that 9 PM start for the east coast.

They really should have the Brewers-Cubs at 4 and the Phillies-Dodgers at 8 but I guess they really like the 6 and 9 starts for ideal TV ratings. Expect lots of shadows at Dodgers stadium today.

[zambonir]

Hopefully helps our starter as much as theirs, especially since they just saw him.

[Sabin]

Observations from Game 3:

1. Watching Kershaw battle in the 8th reminded me of watching one of Halladay's last appearances against the Marlins when he couldn't get out of the 1st.
2. Hats off to Nola and Suarez for tag-teaming their way to seven strong innings and a Game 4.
3. Schwarber makes it look easy when he's in a groove.
4. Castellanos is the opposite in RF, but as long as he keeps making the plays I'll take it.
5. Top of the order: 9/16, 3 XBH, 1 K, 4 BB
6. Surprised Harper made the play at the plate as close as he did.
7. Here's hoping Sanchez can be sharp again and the bats continue the surge.

[zambonir]

Non-baseball injury sounds like. Not really big news otherwise, we would have loved to see him!

Tanner Scott Removed From Dodgers' NLDS Roster

[Sabin]

Observations from Game 4:

1. Sanchez pitched great, despite his team losing both starts.
2. Though the Dodgers arms are talented, the bats lost this series.
3. Turner looked lost up there tonight, and much of the series.
4. Castellanos, despite mostly being a liability vs. his salary, showed how he can look lost at the plate one minute, then serve a clutch hit the next.
5. The umps got progressively worse with the ball/strike calls as the game went on.
6. Next year will be interesting with the free agents vs. payroll vs. youth.
7. Hoping Bader stays around.
8. Go Brewers!

[phillychuck]

Keep Schwarber. I’m neutral on JT, except there is really no one else available for reasonable money. Neutral on Bader, too, although I sort of like good defensive players who are at least streaky-good on offense. Casty gets launched to the moon. Please.

Those who are counting on Miller and Crawford, remember rookies rarely make positive offensive contributions throughout the year. Be patient.

Hope Wheeler gets healthy. I’d keep all the pitching if they can afford it. Nola should be better next year. Ranger will benefit from an offseason--he’s usually sharp early-to-mid year. Ranger needs his FB back up to 93 consistently to be dominant. Will be interesting to see who comes back for sure.

[zambonir]

Casty, unlike, last year wasn't actually good, but he got a few hits and drove in three of the four runs the Phillies scored in Games 2 and 4. Good for him, but obviously not a formula for offensive success either. No question the loss of Bader hurt - the defense, the downgrade to Nick, having to play Marsh against LHP.

For sure about being patient with rookies PC. Marsh (with the Angels) and Bohm and Stott all went back to AAA the first time. If they keep Bader and lose Nick (or even if they don't lose Nick) a Crawford/Marsh/Bader OF is still lacking the same thing it always has (except when Nick was hitting), and that the roster has since '22 (when Nick also wasn't hitting but we had Rhys).

If you really run it back (including Bader) you probably do want to double down on pitching and bring back Ranger. But I think I'd sooner extend Luzardo. Locking up Ranger from ages 32-35 seems risky with Nola already a similar risk (and Walker also demonstrating the age curve, even if he had less far to fall).