NLDS vs Dodgers 2025

[andyb]

A little surprised at Kemp though I guess they want offense against Snell who handled them pretty easily a few weeks ago.

Marsh has to play without Bader of course. Highlights how Rojas not being healthy has hurt their flexibility.

[VoteForKalas]

I thought Game 1 was very important too. We needed to smack the Dodgers in the mouth and puncture their veil of invincibility. Beating Ohtani was the perfect way to do it. We started well, but could not bring it home unfortunately and now the storyline is the inevitability of a Dodgers win in the series.

Tonight is a must win game IMO. You have to go to LA 1-1 to have a real chance to win the series.

This Dodgers team reminds me so much of the late 70's version. Phillies played hard, but Garvey, Lopes, Cey, Baker et al. were good and used that confidence to intimidate opponents.

[VoteForKalas]

Highlights how Rojas not being healthy has hurt their flexibility.

and not being good at the plate unfortunately.

[phillychuck]

Must win...going to LA 0-2 would be a mountain that we’d have to be insanely lucky to climb.

[zambonir]

I really thought Bader was going to play. Hopefully is available to PH. Not sure Rojas with platoon advantage is any better than Marsh or Kepler without, or if he really would have beat out Kemp or Wilson for the overall roster spot but easy to see the utility now.

I feel better today than I did after Game 1 last year. I guess because intellectually it is less surprising, and emotionally a little less annoying.

[andyb]

Not sure Rojas with platoon advantage is any better than Marsh or Kepler without, or if he really would have beat out Kemp or Wilson for the overall roster spot but easy to see the utility now.

Not at all about the platoon advantage. All about the defense.

[Sabin]

Observations from Game 2:

1. Another stong SP effort wasted.
2. But Snell was good, too.
3. Top of the order fails to do much damage again.
4. I question bunting to the 3rd base side in the 9th.
5. Bader was a great deadline acquisition.
6. So was Duran.
7. It's troubling not seeing many good bats coming up the pipeline given the age on the ML club.
8. Kudos to Castellanos for punching another down and away pitch to LF in the 9th.
9. Schwarber and Bryce (and Turner?) have to get hot to keep this series going.
10. Ultimately, the hot team wins. Until the 9th tonight, the Phils' bats haven't been that.

[Philsmania]

Talk about the 2025 NLDS and how we are feeling going into this against LA

Observation #1.

Blow it all up and rebuild.

[LoneStarPhan]

I’m wondering about using a starter in relief. What if Ranger comes in to start the seventh in either game 1 or game 2? Of course, we will never know. Results couldn’t turn out worse than bringing in the usual bullpen which failed to get it done both games.

[zambonir]

Ruben was speculating that Ranger might be injured and they have now announced Nola for G3.

[Callison]

The thing I like about this team is that it has character.

[andyb]

Powder Blues tonight. 6-1 record in them this season. Needed special permission to wear them on the road even though the original ones were their road uniforms.

Phillies to wear powder blue uniforms for NLDS in LA

[EastFallowfield]

Growing up in the era when they wore those on the road all the time, and only Sunday home games were on TV, feel like I’ve seen them lose in those way too much already, including in the playoffs at Dodger Stadium.

[zambonir]

Hey, why not? The uniform thing is funny because they are 41-40 in the road grey and 55-26 in the others, i.e. road vs home. The powders def have best winning % over city and cream and pins.

I'm a big fan of the powder blues, i know some aren't. I would also like more maroon back. I guess your era is your era.

I guess if we were wearing the greys in '08 and '09 that would be better luck.

[zambonir]

Fair point but they were wearing them when they won Games 4 and 5 of the '80 NLCS, and in KC as well. I think in my child brain that erases all the earlier pain.

[zambonir]

Interesting read. Locker location/space based on service time (also correlating with $ in most cases).

Inside the Phillies’ home clubhouse, where they hope to return: Who sits where...

[zambonir]

> According to Baseball sabermetrician Tango Tiger, a successful bunt would have actually hurt the Phils’ chance to win the game. The Phils had a 43.8% chance to win when Stott was at-bat and would have had a 41.6% chance to win with Castellanos on third and one out. It’s hard to reason why the Phils did it.

What the bunt? | Extra Innings in Red October

[BaseballCat]

What I want to see tonight, besides a win, is some fight through out the game. I would rather go down fighting than a whimper. Not saying they are not playing hard, but I want to feel we have a chance. Getting my bratwurst, peanuts and beer ready. Let’s go Powder Blue Phils!

[BostonRoss]

Those percentages are, of course, based on assumptions, either that everyone is an average hitter (and runner) in the specific situation or some additional assumptions that haven't been documented. Is the 43.8% based on an average hitter's likely outcomes, or Stott's specific likely outcomes against that pitcher at that time? And Bader's and Kepler's and Turner's likely outcomes afterwards? And Castellanos being the runner on 3B or 2B? Does it consider that Castellanos has a lower probability of scoring from 2B on a single than an "average" runner? Considering all that (which probably requires information that is not really known), the change in win probability might have been positive--or more negative.

Sorry for the mini-rant, as someone who develops mathematical models for a living, I've seen too many people ignore the impacts of the simplifications required in the assumptions. It makes things worse when we express these probabilities so precisely.

[zambonir]

Well, you are obviouly more qualified than I but don't these WP models run every possible situation, hundreds of times, to come up with the number. In the end I reckon the 3% prob difference isn't big enough to noet let the manager go with his gut anyway. The unscientific analysis - that they should not have been playing for the tie - the way things were going - is more compelling.

But mostly, they got beat by the Dodgers making a play, just like they got beat by the bats and arms at other key points.