Minor League Games - Tuesday, May 9, 2017

[bigegypt0417]

Nobody is disagreeing with you that discipline is not important. Every hitter improves when they swing at fewer bad pitches.

Where I disagree is saying it is the most important thing or something dramatically new. The Phillies are looking for and teaching discipline. They always have. But they also want a hit tool, speed, and power. They have also taught discipline in the past. Maybe they emphasize it a little more or draft a guy like Randolph, but it is just not the sea change that you describe.

what I see as the previous problem is we drafted and signed tons of undisciplined hitters. I'm almost positive they didn't teach swinging at anything...

[Austinfan]

In the past the party line used to be "we want our hitters to be aggressive," players get that message and try to hit their way to the majors.
When you change the message, you change the focus, and you change how players talk to each other.
Young players can learn the value of a "good AB," and how it helps their teammates.

Now you can't teach every player, but you can have your scouts focus on certain skills, not necessarily plate discipline, but also vision, coachability and self-control.
That is, can a young player recognize breaking balls, are they willing to listen to coaches, and can they be patient and play under control.

[andyb]

We have changed our drafting influence a bit but I really don't see the dramatic change. Randolph and to some degree Moniak were more disciplined than some of the toolsy kids we have signed in the past, but again some of that is due to our higher draft picks. Moniak SHOULD be more disciplined as well as toolsy at his draft spot. But Senzel would have been the real "most disciplined" choice. Randolph was a bit of a reach for a disciplined player where we drafted him though and I kind of wanted someone with a better defensive profile and more power.

Beyond the first round last year our hitters don't strike me as especially disciplined for their draft spot. Stobbe is a power SS. Martinelli was toolsy. Guys like Hall and Wojo were picked for their power and not their hit tool. Stephen is the one higher offensive guy that may have been a play for a more disciplined HS bat.

Also, whenever we draft an Altherr in the 9th round we are definitely trying to draft the tools and not the discipline. Our trades for guys like Alfaro and Williams lately are certainly not trades for discipline. They are trades for tools. Klentak has not added many position players in trades though I suppose he will go for at least guys with average walk rates. Certainly a Nava fits that profile. Saunders and Kendrick had OK walk rates but were more there for their power and hit tools respectively.

Just because guys like Anthony Hewitt never became disciplined did not mean we did not try to teach them. And even he was the 24th pick where good hit tools rarely drop to. A couple years later we are pretty happy with the Quinn pick which was a toolsy pick also.

[allentown]

Well, Dancy was in a position to impact just about everyone coming through the system. He got upset that Bourn walked to much, .400 obp be damned. Part of the problem was we had so few hitters the minor league staff wanted the few guys who actually could hit to become rbi machines rather than on-base machines. At the major league level, Abreu was absolutely pilloried as a coward for daring to accept a walk with RISP and leaving the tough job to the next batter. The old Phillies definitely did not preach patience and working the count, IMHO. They lucked into some guys, whom they drafted or signed because of their power, but who also were disciplined hitters who collected a lot of walks.

[tom81]

It does seem to me that we are conditioned to be negative being fans of the team with the most loses in American sports history.

I have to bring up the bright spot again, I can't help it, I have a man crush on the young man.

"That is how first baseman Rhys Hoskins separated himself in the first fifth of the minor-league season. The prodigious power he displayed in 2016 at double-A Reading has translated to a higher level. He has reduced his strikeout rate and maintained his walk rate. ".

I really don't see what else he has to learn in AAA. I think he needs to hit against better pitching to improve further. He understands the game going on between hitter and pitcher and has a real plan when he goes to the plate. This interview of his really impressed me.

[andyb]

How do you know that Dancy wasn't the outlier in the system. Serious question. He was mostly one minor league manager and not the player development director or hitting instructor for the Phillies. A few stupid quotes become an urban legend. We have developed plenty of players with disciplined approaches over the years. Dancy was never in charge.

It is more indisputable that we did not take analytics seriously until a decade after the rest of the league. That led to us over-drafting toolsy types on occasion. Or trading for some players that were over-rated because they did not draw walks.

All of these are very different questions from the central one here in which the theory is posited that the Phillies only just recently started to teach and develop plate discipline. I just don't think there is much evidence to say that is true and it is probably not true. I am sure there are just as many quotes from coaches about players working the counts and swinging at strikes as there are quotes telling them to be more aggressive. Otherwise we are doing analytics by heresay. The fact is that we DID acquire Bobby Abreu. We did develop guys like Mike Schmidt and Chase Utley. The whole 1993 team was built on plate discipline (and PED of course).

[schooldoc]

Kilome doesn't make it out of the first inning.

HR
K
4 consecutive walks
K
2-RBI single
hook

Quite a shame and a big step backwards....Kilome had walked only 5 in his first 5 starts this year, over 28.2 innings. His ERA goes from 2.51 to 3.68. Hopefully it's just a bump in the road. I did hear that he struck out the 2nd hitter on a 96 mph pitch so he still had the velo.

[phillychuck]

Andy, to be fair, I think allentown and Austinfan are right about this. Time and time again in the "bad old days" I would read game story comments from coaches about position players, recommending aggressiveness and advising hitters to go outside of the strike zone to knock in runs. I remember it because it frustrated me so much. Sometimes they would talk about being aggressive early in the count, or jumping on the first pitch, or whatever, but it clearly WAS an organizational philosophy. They treated players who took walks like there was something wrong with their competitiveness. Bobby Abreu, Michael Bourne, Domonic Brown, Pat Burrell and others were criticized for walking too much, and guys like Jason Michaels, Aaron Rowand, and Doug Glanville were praised for their aggressive approach.

I do think there has been a change in organizational philosophy, perhaps instigated by the analytics acceptance.

[schooldoc]

And Tyler Viza can't get out of the 4th. His ERA, now over 7.

I'm thinking Cole Irvin or perhaps Jose Taveras should be filling Viza's rotation spot here soon.

[phillychuck]

So our pitching is struggling just a bit now. Couldn't deal with all the success...

[allentown]

Pullin having quite the night -- 4 for 4 with a double and HR and 3 RBIs.

[andyb]

ndy, to be fair, I think allentown and Austinfan are right about this. Time and time again in the "bad old days" I would read game story comments from coaches about position players, recommending aggressiveness and advising hitters to go outside of the strike zone to knock in runs. I remember it because it frustrated me so much. Sometimes they would talk about being aggressive early in the count, or jumping on the first pitch, or whatever, but it clearly WAS an organizational philosophy. They treated players who took walks like there was something wrong with their competitiveness. Bobby Abreu, Michael Bourne, Domonic Brown, Pat Burrell and others were criticized for walking too much, and guys like Jason Michaels, Aaron Rowand, and Doug Glanville were praised for their aggressive approach.

I do think there has been a change in organizational philosophy, perhaps instigated by the analytics acceptance.

I think it is mostly heresay from looking at selected newspaper quotes. People seeing what they want in quotes and not seeing the whole picture. Separating development instruction from player acquisition is important here. Everyone ignores the quotes about "getting good pitches to hit" to draw their own conclusions which reflect their preexisting bias.

Analytics is much more about player acquisition than development. Development is different and conclusions are being formed without a whole lot of evidence.

[Austinfan]

At some point you have to ask whether Pullin should be getting Cozens' PAs.
Cozens is a better fielder, but Pullin has picked up where he left off last year, and at such a high level you really have to test him in AAA soon.

[zambonir]

I think you guys (on either side of this) are both right. In the trenches, most, if not all, of the coaches and development guys were not completely clueless and Dancy was not necessarily representative over a 25-year period that includes both the '93 team and Charlie's tenure.

But a top-down culture is a powerful thing, and you had guys like Dallas Green setting a certain tone, and you had Ruben Amaro Jr., as the actual GM, scoffing at the importance of OBP (or OPS, to say nothing of advanced stats!). He also, by his actions (the free agents he signed, the things he said when signing them), devalued walks and overvalued BA and contact

[phillychuck]

I think Cozens needs to play almost every day for the rest of the year. If he can figure out the off-speed stuff he could be a really special player, but he has to play to figure it out. There really aren't many available spots in AAA right now for Pullin, who has certainly earned AAA ABs. Maybe one of the OFs can play 3B??? Too bad Pullin didn't stick in the IF when he was in low-A. I think allentown suggested limiting Cam Perkins' ABs, and maybe those could be given to Pullin. I don't know if the organization has given up on Perkins yet, and he's been productive for LV and helps them win, which helps everyone play better. It's not an easy problem.

[bigegypt0417]

I think Cozens needs to play almost every day for the rest of the year. If he can figure out the off-speed stuff he could be a really special player, but he has to play to figure it out. There really aren't many available spots in AAA right now for Pullin, who has certainly earned AAA ABs. Maybe one of the OFs can play 3B??? Too bad Pullin didn't stick in the IF when he was in low-A. I think allentown suggested limiting Cam Perkins' ABs, and maybe those could be given to Pullin. I don't know if the organization has given up on Perkins yet, and he's been productive for LV and helps them win, which helps everyone play better. It's not an easy problem.

Agreed on cozens. He's barely had 100 AB's at AAA and needs an entire season. At 22 and soon to be 23 there is no rush...

Cam Perkins is doing well but is 27? I'm not sure he should be taking AB's from anyone at this point.

[andyb]

Someone in the OF in the majors or AAA is liable to get injured at some point so these things have a way of working themselves out. At some point something like a Sanders or Kendrick or Nava trade might also clear a spot and allow for promotions. Pullin will get his AAA chance in the next month or so.

[Austinfan]

Pullin AA stats (and his road stats are better than his home stats, so unlike Cozens, this is for real):

300 49 101 22 0 18 55 23 56 .337 .389 .590 .979

The SSS is getting pretty large. At some point you have to concede it's not a fluke anymore.
He has a LH/RH split this year, but not last year at either level, so this year is probably an anomaly.

[bigegypt0417]

Pullin AA stats (and his road stats are better than his home stats, so unlike Cozens, this is for real):

300 49 101 22 0 18 55 23 56 .337 .389 .590 .979

The SSS is getting pretty large. At some point you have to concede it's not a fluke anymore.
He has a LH/RH split this year, but not last year at either level, so this year is probably an anomaly.

i dont think anyone is saying that but taking the AB's from cozens isn't a wise move IMO.

[Philsmania]

A multi-hit game for Crawford!