Minor League Games - Tuesday, May 9, 2017

[bigegypt0417]

The question is can you turn free swingers into disciplined hitters? I remember back in the '80's how they talked about the need to make Juan Samuel more disciplined but it never happened. It's definitely demoralizing to see how Williams, Crawford, Cozens and Quinn have all dramatically hit the wall in AAA.

It's rare but can be done. they will never become guys that don't strike out but if you can get them down to a decent level and increase walks it's not the worst thing in the world.

[Austinfan]

Depends on the player.

A combination of wilingness, ability to see the pitch out of the pitcher's hand (pick up spin), and baseball IQ to understand how to manage an AB.
ML club has gone from one of the smallest pitches per AB to one of the highest in one year, still a work in progress but they have changed.
Canelo is showing much better discipline, Tocci is not.

I think discipline is something they'll put a greater emphasis on in scouting.

It's not surprising that the undisciplined players are struggling in AAA ball, that's where you run into a lot of AAAA types with marginal FBs but good secondary pitches and command who nibble undisciplined hitters to death. Guys who can hit 95 MPH FBs will thrive in AA where you see a lot of kids throw hard without command or secondary pitches, but AAA is where they get exposed.

Interesting point with Pullin and Kingery, both are hitting much better on the road than at home, wonder if the weather this time of year blocks the winds that make Reading a hitter's park, and if that will change a month from now when the polar vortex moves out.

[bigegypt0417]

Canelo is showing much better discipline, Tocci is not.

Tocci is batting .323 and has 14 k's in 107 at bats. He's also walked 4 times but I have no idea how you can use him as your example.

Canelo Strikes out more and walks more but to use Tocci as your example is a stretch.

Even if you use Tocci's numbers from last year you're off.

[andyb]

I am not sure the organizational philosophy has changed that much. We have always wanted players to swing at strikes. They have drafted some more patient types in recent years but it has only been a subtle shift. And really the jury is still out on a guy like Randolph. We still correctly value guys in the draft with real tools (power, speed, defense) that are just as or more important than being patient. While there were some old school types like Bill Dancy more than a decade ago, we really have not changed our philosophy that much in the past 5-10 years. We are more statistically and analytically savvy, but basic hitting instruction of working counts and getting good pitches to hit have not changed that much.

Brito has OK patience, though it is wrong to characterize him as good for a Latin American player. That is a stereotype that also does not hold true. There are many examples of players like Bobby Abreu and it is a stereotype that does not tell us that much. Brito more importantly has a decent and developing hit tool to go with OK plate discipline. Whether he maintains the walk rate probably has as much to do with what power he develops as anything else.

[Austinfan]

A good example of how discipline can change a career is Eric Thame, article in today's WSJ.
Turns out when he went to Korea, he was swinging at 33% of pitches out of the K-zone, after a couple years of a steady diet of off speed pitches (shades of AAA ball), he learned discipline and dropped that to 17% of pitches out of the K-zone - and so far it's paid off in Milwaukee.

Altherr turned his career around two years by becoming more disciplined, then adjusted his swing this year to be quicker - the combination is doubly effective b/c a quicker swing allows the player to wait on the ball longer and recognize its flight path.

Not every hitter can do so, but Rupp has so far this season and it's starting to pay off.
It obviously takes time, it's a different mindset, and there's going to be an adjustment period.
But learning to lay off bad pitches, set up each AB to get one or two swings at a hittable pitch, should pay off for a lot of players over time.

[andyb]

Nobody is disagreeing with you that discipline is not important. Every hitter improves when they swing at fewer bad pitches.

Where I disagree is saying it is the most important thing or something dramatically new. The Phillies are looking for and teaching discipline. They always have. But they also want a hit tool, speed, and power. They have also taught discipline in the past. Maybe they emphasize it a little more or draft a guy like Randolph, but it is just not the sea change that you describe.

[bigegypt0417]

Nobody is disagreeing with you that discipline is not important. Every hitter improves when they swing at fewer bad pitches.

Where I disagree is saying it is the most important thing or something dramatically new. The Phillies are looking for and teaching discipline. They always have. But they also want a hit tool, speed, and power. They have also taught discipline in the past. Maybe they emphasize it a little more or draft a guy like Randolph, but it is just not the sea change that you describe.

what I see as the previous problem is we drafted and signed tons of undisciplined hitters. I'm almost positive they didn't teach swinging at anything...

[Austinfan]

In the past the party line used to be "we want our hitters to be aggressive," players get that message and try to hit their way to the majors.
When you change the message, you change the focus, and you change how players talk to each other.
Young players can learn the value of a "good AB," and how it helps their teammates.

Now you can't teach every player, but you can have your scouts focus on certain skills, not necessarily plate discipline, but also vision, coachability and self-control.
That is, can a young player recognize breaking balls, are they willing to listen to coaches, and can they be patient and play under control.

[andyb]

We have changed our drafting influence a bit but I really don't see the dramatic change. Randolph and to some degree Moniak were more disciplined than some of the toolsy kids we have signed in the past, but again some of that is due to our higher draft picks. Moniak SHOULD be more disciplined as well as toolsy at his draft spot. But Senzel would have been the real "most disciplined" choice. Randolph was a bit of a reach for a disciplined player where we drafted him though and I kind of wanted someone with a better defensive profile and more power.

Beyond the first round last year our hitters don't strike me as especially disciplined for their draft spot. Stobbe is a power SS. Martinelli was toolsy. Guys like Hall and Wojo were picked for their power and not their hit tool. Stephen is the one higher offensive guy that may have been a play for a more disciplined HS bat.

Also, whenever we draft an Altherr in the 9th round we are definitely trying to draft the tools and not the discipline. Our trades for guys like Alfaro and Williams lately are certainly not trades for discipline. They are trades for tools. Klentak has not added many position players in trades though I suppose he will go for at least guys with average walk rates. Certainly a Nava fits that profile. Saunders and Kendrick had OK walk rates but were more there for their power and hit tools respectively.

Just because guys like Anthony Hewitt never became disciplined did not mean we did not try to teach them. And even he was the 24th pick where good hit tools rarely drop to. A couple years later we are pretty happy with the Quinn pick which was a toolsy pick also.

[allentown]

Well, Dancy was in a position to impact just about everyone coming through the system. He got upset that Bourn walked to much, .400 obp be damned. Part of the problem was we had so few hitters the minor league staff wanted the few guys who actually could hit to become rbi machines rather than on-base machines. At the major league level, Abreu was absolutely pilloried as a coward for daring to accept a walk with RISP and leaving the tough job to the next batter. The old Phillies definitely did not preach patience and working the count, IMHO. They lucked into some guys, whom they drafted or signed because of their power, but who also were disciplined hitters who collected a lot of walks.

[tom81]

It does seem to me that we are conditioned to be negative being fans of the team with the most loses in American sports history.

I have to bring up the bright spot again, I can't help it, I have a man crush on the young man.

"That is how first baseman Rhys Hoskins separated himself in the first fifth of the minor-league season. The prodigious power he displayed in 2016 at double-A Reading has translated to a higher level. He has reduced his strikeout rate and maintained his walk rate. ".

I really don't see what else he has to learn in AAA. I think he needs to hit against better pitching to improve further. He understands the game going on between hitter and pitcher and has a real plan when he goes to the plate. This interview of his really impressed me.

[andyb]

How do you know that Dancy wasn't the outlier in the system. Serious question. He was mostly one minor league manager and not the player development director or hitting instructor for the Phillies. A few stupid quotes become an urban legend. We have developed plenty of players with disciplined approaches over the years. Dancy was never in charge.

It is more indisputable that we did not take analytics seriously until a decade after the rest of the league. That led to us over-drafting toolsy types on occasion. Or trading for some players that were over-rated because they did not draw walks.

All of these are very different questions from the central one here in which the theory is posited that the Phillies only just recently started to teach and develop plate discipline. I just don't think there is much evidence to say that is true and it is probably not true. I am sure there are just as many quotes from coaches about players working the counts and swinging at strikes as there are quotes telling them to be more aggressive. Otherwise we are doing analytics by heresay. The fact is that we DID acquire Bobby Abreu. We did develop guys like Mike Schmidt and Chase Utley. The whole 1993 team was built on plate discipline (and PED of course).

[schooldoc]

Kilome doesn't make it out of the first inning.

HR
K
4 consecutive walks
K
2-RBI single
hook

Quite a shame and a big step backwards....Kilome had walked only 5 in his first 5 starts this year, over 28.2 innings. His ERA goes from 2.51 to 3.68. Hopefully it's just a bump in the road. I did hear that he struck out the 2nd hitter on a 96 mph pitch so he still had the velo.

[phillychuck]

Andy, to be fair, I think allentown and Austinfan are right about this. Time and time again in the "bad old days" I would read game story comments from coaches about position players, recommending aggressiveness and advising hitters to go outside of the strike zone to knock in runs. I remember it because it frustrated me so much. Sometimes they would talk about being aggressive early in the count, or jumping on the first pitch, or whatever, but it clearly WAS an organizational philosophy. They treated players who took walks like there was something wrong with their competitiveness. Bobby Abreu, Michael Bourne, Domonic Brown, Pat Burrell and others were criticized for walking too much, and guys like Jason Michaels, Aaron Rowand, and Doug Glanville were praised for their aggressive approach.

I do think there has been a change in organizational philosophy, perhaps instigated by the analytics acceptance.

[schooldoc]

And Tyler Viza can't get out of the 4th. His ERA, now over 7.

I'm thinking Cole Irvin or perhaps Jose Taveras should be filling Viza's rotation spot here soon.

[phillychuck]

So our pitching is struggling just a bit now. Couldn't deal with all the success...

[allentown]

Pullin having quite the night -- 4 for 4 with a double and HR and 3 RBIs.

[andyb]

ndy, to be fair, I think allentown and Austinfan are right about this. Time and time again in the "bad old days" I would read game story comments from coaches about position players, recommending aggressiveness and advising hitters to go outside of the strike zone to knock in runs. I remember it because it frustrated me so much. Sometimes they would talk about being aggressive early in the count, or jumping on the first pitch, or whatever, but it clearly WAS an organizational philosophy. They treated players who took walks like there was something wrong with their competitiveness. Bobby Abreu, Michael Bourne, Domonic Brown, Pat Burrell and others were criticized for walking too much, and guys like Jason Michaels, Aaron Rowand, and Doug Glanville were praised for their aggressive approach.

I do think there has been a change in organizational philosophy, perhaps instigated by the analytics acceptance.

I think it is mostly heresay from looking at selected newspaper quotes. People seeing what they want in quotes and not seeing the whole picture. Separating development instruction from player acquisition is important here. Everyone ignores the quotes about "getting good pitches to hit" to draw their own conclusions which reflect their preexisting bias.

Analytics is much more about player acquisition than development. Development is different and conclusions are being formed without a whole lot of evidence.

[Austinfan]

At some point you have to ask whether Pullin should be getting Cozens' PAs.
Cozens is a better fielder, but Pullin has picked up where he left off last year, and at such a high level you really have to test him in AAA soon.

[zambonir]

I think you guys (on either side of this) are both right. In the trenches, most, if not all, of the coaches and development guys were not completely clueless and Dancy was not necessarily representative over a 25-year period that includes both the '93 team and Charlie's tenure.

But a top-down culture is a powerful thing, and you had guys like Dallas Green setting a certain tone, and you had Ruben Amaro Jr., as the actual GM, scoffing at the importance of OBP (or OPS, to say nothing of advanced stats!). He also, by his actions (the free agents he signed, the things he said when signing them), devalued walks and overvalued BA and contact