Minor League Games - Thursday, August 17, 2017

[allentown]

And what's really worrisome is the stupid "smartest guy in the room" crud the Phils pull--they go way off the board, and expect us to trust their skill above everyone else who is evaluating players, and it turns out again and again all the other guys were right. Use the BBA or BP published lists and save some money on scouts. Sheesh

Not even their own analytical skill or original evaluation. There was a list of top guys ranked by KATOH that I saw after someone referenced it on the draft day post. We took several early reaches who ranked very highly on the KATOH list.

[fish]

Patience is one thing, but if they are of the mindset you have to wait 5 years to evaluate the draft results of the guy hired to do the job we're in for a lonnnnng rebuild.

3 years of high draft picks and Kingery is the only sure-thing I see.

[bigegypt0417]

Yay!

The sky is falling!

[bigegypt0417]

Patience is one thing, but if they are of the mindset you have to wait 5 years to evaluate the draft results of the guy hired to do the job we're in for a lonnnnng rebuild.

3 years of high draft picks and Kingery is the only sure-thing I see.

It doesn't matter where you are and what your circumstance...you have to wait several years to judge a draft. Why does where you are in a rebuild matter?

I mean it's up to you if you want to be logical in looking at it but do you really believe you can judge a draft a year after?

As for Kingery...at this time last year there was a debate if Valentin or Kingery were the future of this team.

That's why drafts take some time to sort out...unless you believe the outcome is already decided.

[kmc1019]

The 2016 draft will always be of special scrutiny for the Phillies on account of having the #1 overall pick. At the moment Nick Senzel, Forrest Whitley and Bo Bichette look like the class of the draft - with the latter 2 being HS picks, so can't really claim a reason why Moniak should not be performing like them. Hopefully things will look better for Moniak and Stobbe (2018 is a complete loss for Gowdy) because right now the 2016 draft looks about as horrible now as it did strong at this point last year.

[bigegypt0417]

The 2016 draft will always be of special scrutiny for the Phillies on account of having the #1 overall pick. At the moment Nick Senzel, Forrest Whitley and Bo Bichette look like the class of the draft - with the latter 2 being HS picks, so can't really claim a reason why Moniak should not be performing like them. Hopefully things will look better for Moniak and Stobbe (2018 is a complete loss for Gowdy) because right now the 2016 draft looks about as horrible now as it did strong at this point last year.

I dont know...jojo romero and kyle young would probably disagree with you.

Darick Hall
Will hibbs

[allentown]

As for Kingery...at this time last year there was a debate if Valentin or Kingery were the future of this team.

Valentin was more peripheral to that discussion, it was -- and really still is judging from recent back-and-forths, whether Hernandez or Kingery was the future, although we certainly saw Valentin as a close 3rd.

[bigegypt0417]

As for Kingery...at this time last year there was a debate if Valentin or Kingery were the future of this team.

Valentin was more peripheral to that discussion, it was -- and really still is judging from recent back-and-forths, whether Hernandez or Kingery was the future, although we certainly saw Valentin as a close 3rd.

My point was more around how the opinions on draft picks can change from year to year.

Although at this time last year, there were board members comparing valentin and kingery and who was the better prospect.

[allentown]

I dont know...jojo romero and kyle young would probably disagree with you.

Darick Hall
Will hibbs

This is something I've noticed from past drafts. In the late stages of the draft, those picks which are low bonus and low attention by the scouting director and GM -- the scouts make their pitches and the top guys haven't seen enough of the guys to do much beyond trust their scouts -- we find gems. In the past we found Howard and Altherr. Where we've done far less well is with the guys who get 90% of the bonus money and have the GM, scouting director, national cross-checkers, special advisors to the GM and president crawling all over the decision. It's the guys our higher ups fall totally madly in love with, who don't stack up in the end. I've been arguing for years that our area scouts are doing a better job identifying talent than our higher ups are doing ranking talent. The higher ups loved Hewitt and LGJ. They were seen as special talents. This is in stark contrast to the pre-Wolever days when the core of the golden era teams were signed. Then we identified great guys with our primo picks. We chose Utley and Hamels and Rollins, when other teams passed repeatedly on them.

I think it definitely is too early to make a decision about our top 3 picks from 2016. I think we should pretty much know about Moniak and Stobbe by May of 2019, but it will take a couple years beyond that to know what we have in Gowdy.

[allentown]

Although at this time last year, there were board members comparing valentin and kingery and who was the better prospect

I know. I was one of them.

[bigegypt0417]

Although at this time last year, there were board members comparing valentin and kingery and who was the better prospect

I know. I was one of them.

And it was a valid debate at the time. It also points to why drafts take a while to work themselves out.

[andyb]

It was definitely a valid debate at the time. I took it as an example where scouting reports and tools were just as important as stats at various levels relative to age. Valentin as the kid of a major leaguer had some advantages that allowed him to move fairly quickly through the early minors. Kingery also moved relatively quickly for a college player. A HS draftee does have an age advantage potentially at each level but that is mitigated somewhat when the HS pick is very polished (like the kid of a major leaguer). They move through the lower minors more quickly because they already know lots of what is taught there.

Now Kingery's power is a bit of a surprise (though he seems to be settling down and looking more like a 12-15 HR guy). He always had scouts touting his athleticism, defense, and general hitting ability. He moved quickly and had relatively short 1-2 month adjustments at the beginning of most levels. All those things contributed to the view that he was better than Valentin even though Valentin had an edge in age/level raw stats.

[schooldoc]

Moniak almost has to be playing through some kind of injury in order to be this bad. I just have this feeling we will hear about it after the minor league season ends, with his continuing to play justified by the reasoning that the Phillies wanted him to experience a full minor league season and that learning to play through nagging injuries is all part of the process. Short-sighted and silly? Yes. Something the Phillies would do/say? I wouldn't put it past them.

[fish]

It doesn't matter where you are and what your circumstance...you have to wait several years to judge a draft. Why does where you are in a rebuild matter?

If you are drafting late and forfeiting picks, yes, it will take longer to judge. But when you are drafting as early as the Phils have, you have access to the best players. The cream, more often than not, rises to the top quickly. Very good players usually show they can play from the get-go.

I'm not saying everyone picked in the last 3 years is a bust, but you can compare what other teams are doing and have done to realize this isn't going very well.

[bigegypt0417]

Moniak almost has to be playing through some kind of injury in order to be this bad. I just have this feeling we will hear about it after the minor league season ends, with his continuing to play justified by the reasoning that the Phillies wanted him to experience a full minor league season and that learning to play through nagging injuries is all part of the process. Short-sighted and silly? Yes. Something the Phillies would do/say? I wouldn't put it past them.

Or he's just super tired and they have decided to push him further so he understand what he needs to prepare for this off-season. It doesn't always have to be sinister.

[bigegypt0417]

It doesn't matter where you are and what your circumstance...you have to wait several years to judge a draft. Why does where you are in a rebuild matter?

If you are drafting late and forfeiting picks, yes, it will take longer to judge. But when you are drafting as early as the Phils have, you have access to the best players. The cream, more often than not, rises to the top quickly. Very good players usually show they can play from the get-go.

I'm not saying everyone picked in the last 3 years is a bust, but you can compare what other teams are doing and have done to realize this isn't going very well.

Anecdote aside...when you draft a bunch of top picks and they are HS players it will take longer.

Draft position may shorten the timeline somewhat but not enough for you to make a judgment this fast.

[schooldoc]

I don't think your theory and mine are that far off except for the use of the word "sinister," which implies some conscious desire on the Phillies' part to hurt the kid. I don't think that at all. I would say that if he's "super-tired," it might be a wise decision to just shut him down rather than risk injury or further erosion of his confidence that another 2-3 weeks of play might bring about. Based on the data already available to us (Moniak's 2nd half performance to this point), I think it's already clear to him and the team that he needs to build endurance to play Feb-Sept. What does another 2-3 weeks really prove?

[bigegypt0417]

I don't think your theory and mine are that far off except for the use of the word "sinister," which implies some conscious desire on the Phillies' part to hurt the kid. I don't think that at all. I would say that if he's "super-tired," it might be a wise decision to just shut him down rather than risk injury or further erosion of his confidence that another 2-3 weeks of play might bring about. Based on the data already available to us (Moniak's 2nd half performance to this point), I think it's already clear to him and the team that he needs to build endurance to play Feb-Sept. What does another 2-3 weeks really prove?

Short-sighted and silly? Yes. Something the Phillies would do/say? I wouldn't put it past them.

Kind of seemed like you were hinting the Phillies are intentionally letting him play hurt.

Further eroding of his confidence?

Man, these kids are made of tissue paper it seems.

lol

[andyb]

I am fine with Moniak playing while he is struggling. It is all part of the learning process as long as he is healthy. Maybe he is pressing now since he sees Haseley playing the same position. He could even have started pressing right after the draft because drafting Haseley could easily have been seen as threatening and he is a 19-year-old kid who can read what is on the internet.

I think Moniak is still a very good prospect. Higher ceiling and more likely to stick in CF than Haseley. But it is also becoming quite apparent that he was not the best choice we could have made. There is a reason teams select college players with really high draft picks unless the HS players blow you away. Moniak does not have the tool to blow you away since he does not have that much power. The hit tool being more raw than imagined is on the Phillies scouts. They just look like they were wrong about that. He is not that rare "safe" but only "medium" ceiling HS talent. He is more of a typical raw HS pick with a mid-level ceiling.

[fish]

Anecdote aside...when you draft a bunch of top picks and they are HS players it will take longer.

Draft position may shorten the timeline somewhat but not enough for you to make a judgment this fast.

I just feel that the reason a draft is hard to evaluate is because you can't really tell who is a performing well in the lower levels that will flame out in the upper levels. Significantly less-so because a guy under-performing at the lower levels may be a better performer in the upper levels.

Sure- every once in a while you get a guy who isn't great in the minors and matures into a good big leaguer in the second half of their 20s, but that's more like bonus.