Minor League Games - Monday, July 24, 2017

[bigegypt0417]

allentown...I hope you are right in your minor league rankings [top 5-6] but my sense is that we are dropping and that we might not be even top 10 right now. I sure hope I am wrong because since that night nearly two years ago when Hamels was moved I have been super gung ho on our minor league system.

Our minor league system is full of prospects no matter where the rankings put us. There is no way to look at what we have and care even a little about the rankings. We haven't had this much talent at so many levels in a long time...

[Austinfan]

2012 article:

College grads in baseball a rare breed | FOX Sports

As of Wednesday morning, 917 players had appeared in at least one big-league game this season, according to STATS LLC. Of that group, only 39 — or 4.3 percent — were confirmed by their teams of MLB as having obtained four-year college degrees through a FOXSports.com survey of clubs. However, many got those degrees after being drafted.

Odds are low for two reasons, self-selection, the better players have left school, and age prejudice, since a senior is older, he starts out with a black mark and doesn't get the benefit of the doubt.

To me, the best bets as college seniors:
1) players coming off injuries who stayed in college to show they were healthy
2) SPs with good FBs who lack secondary pitches but are good RP prospects
3) guys who make a big jump their senior year, similar to what Kingery has done in the minors, had they been drafted as juniors the year before, that jump would have come in A ball.

[andyb]

I feel very confident in saying he is the next David Ortiz.

Of course his middle name is David.

[Austinfan]

I can't compare with other systems, but since I've begun seriously tracking the pharm, this is the best collection of talent, even with the numerous graduates this year, they've ever had.
The pitching depth is spectacular, even the second tier guys like Tavares have a shot as #5 starters.
Sal is doing something right, b/c the last 4-5 years they've had a steady stream of LA pitchers come stateside and succeed.
And while there are some holes in the donut among position players in A ball, Williamsport has a solid lineup.

And we'll probably draft in the top 3 next summer.

[bigegypt0417]

I feel very confident in saying he is the next David Ortiz.

Of course his middle name is David.

I think next year at Lakewood will be fun to follow.

[allentown]

Of course he's older, he's a college player

I'm not buying this. Haseley is also a college player. He is 2-1/2 years younger than Listi. Listi is not only a college senior, he is a very old college senior -- I don't know his background, he could be a redshirt and a senior. His stats this year need to be severely discounted for age-inappropriate. Not only is Ortiz 5 years younger, he's hitting better. Pickett is 3 years younger and hitting almost as well, after losing last season to injury. Mims in SSS hitting almost as well, and he's 2-1/2 years younger as a college guy and a middle IF. Scheiner another 21-year old collegian with .800+ OPS. Listi just doesn't stand out, even on his own team.

[phillychuck]

FYI, here's a nice article about Listi from about 3 weeks ago:

http://www.sungazette.com/sports/local-sports/2017/06/cutters-notebook-listis-wife-has-been-supportive/

[allentown]

I'm sure there will be a range of where we are ranked. We lack the #1-25 or so first-level prospects and our rank will depend upon how much that is counted against us by various rankers. I believe that is partially mitigated by the breakout year that Jhailyn Ortiz is having at Williamsport at age 18. His ranking is hurt by lack of proximity and lack of defensive impact, although all reports are that he is surprisingly athletic. Another year of doing what he's doing and I think a rational rater can put him among top 25 prospects. He can be Ryan Howard, but starting several years younger in MLB and with his athleticism maybe not age-fading at quite so young an age.

[California_Dreamin]

Big E and allentown...thanks for the thoughts.

[Austinfan]

Players are people, they have lives, each has a different trajectory.
Doesn't mean the odds are with Listi, odds are he's another Tomascha, who looked good in A ball and is dying on the vine since he got promoted.
But I don't rush to conclusions, I'd rather be pleasantly surprised than congragulate myself for betting with the house.
There's always the one guy who outperforms expectations, and that's half the fun of following mnor league baseball, if we just focused on the bonus babies and high picks it would be pretty boring.

[andyb]

The only omission from the MLB.com Top 30 to me is Andrew Pullin. I know he hasn't had the best first month at AAA but still everyone else gets and adjustment month so he should too. I think he is in the 20-30 range for me.

The 5 guys that Matt Winkelman noted on Twitter that might have been included were Pullin, Guzman, Seranthony, Gamboa, and Francisco Morales. We will graduate Williams and Lively shortly so that is 2 spots to remove if we try to insert those 5. I would probably keep Eshelman on after the last few weeks so I might look at guys like Arano and Edgar Garcia (and frankly Elneiry Garcia if he does not pitch soon) to remove if we are trying for a current top 30. Morales is a speculative ranking too. Luis Garcia probably merits inclusion on bonus and scouting reports alone if we are being honest who we think our top 30 should be.

[Austinfan]

Who cares? Top 20, top 30, top 40, just arbitrary rankings.
I notice that I have drastic moves up and down my rankings each year, and half the graduates are players who weren't in the top 10 but somehow managed to make it to the Show.
Is Therrien in the top 30? Because he's probably got a better shot of making the team next year than half the players on the list.

[bkox]

Who cares?

If you dont care then why bother commenting at all? Some people like talking about this stuff and debating it. I believe thats what this phorum is for. Top lists have always been popular in many genres of subjects and often provide the basis of much debate and flow of thoughts and ideas. If you dont care then why not just stay out of the convo instead of seeming superior to those that enjoy this kind of talk.?

[bigegypt0417]

Who cares?

If you dont care then why bother commenting at all? Some people like talking about this stuff and debating it. I believe thats what this phorum is for. Top lists have always been popular in many genres of subjects and often provide the basis of much debate and flow of thoughts and ideas. If you dont care then why not just stay out of the convo instead of seeming superior to those that enjoy this kind of talk.?

Especially when he creates list after list and critiques every list...lol

[Austinfan]

My point is simply that with the depth of prospects the Phillies have, who makes the top 30 is kinda irrelevant.
Phillies have a funny organization right now, no true blue chip prospects (though a few who might become one in a year or two), but lots of legitimate prospects.
So you're really making arbitrary decisions about who should be on a top 30 or top 40 list.
I mean how do you rank Fanti, for example? Upgrade him for a great performance at a young age, downgrade him for average stuff, upgrade him because he's projectable to some extent?
Good luck!

[andyb]

Fanti is borderline top 30 but could easily be in the 31-40 range. On stuff he does not really belong but he belongs on performance at a young age. All rankings are subjective. There is no "how". Only a philosophy of ranking on a combination of ceiling and performance and risk. Fanti does have enough of a track record where you could see a back end starter and not just a reliever. As a reliever he would rank lower.

[allentown]

Any top 30 is a snapshot in time and subjective, depending upon which factors the maker of the list values most. The Fanti question is one of the easier ones. The hardest always come down to 1) how to rate scouting/tools vs performance, 2) how much credit to give to proximity to majors, 3) how much credit/deduct to give for age vs level 4) how much downgrade for injury, 5) how heavily to weight performance changes over course of season, 6) how much credit to give for assumption that seriously underweight will bulk up.

I'll probably have Fanti around #30. Low ceiling, but his beyond-his-tools pitching ability gives him a floor.

[mdougherty12]

OK, I did some googling and can't find a source--do any of you know of a college senior draftee who has made it to the big leagues as an impact player? Would Listi be the first?

I'd estimate his chance to be a major leaguer at significantly worse than 0.5% as a college senior draftee who is old for his class.

Rooting for him if for the story alone!

Daniel Nava has never been an impact player, and he wasn't actually drafted. He does have a couple of ~3 WAR seasons on his resume, and he was a platoon starter on a World Series winner, so he might fit the spirit of the question.

[allentown]

My reaction is not so much that Listi is a senior, it's that he is a year older than the typical senior. I see from Phillychuck's post that he dropped out of college for a year. I think the question about 'impact player' is the wrong question. Impact players aren't the only guys worth developing. I see college senior pitchers as a great, cheap resource to mine for future middle relievers. I'm happy if we draft several of these guys each year. College senior great defensive catchers, such as Bossart, are also of great interest to me. A guy who is basically limited to 1B and who 'broke out' as an over-aged senior does not, I admit, hold any interest for me. If he were a normal-age college senior I'd be more interested, but the number of other college firstbasemen we have ahead of him on our depth chart, plus the number of big OFs who may have to move to 1B, diminishes that interest. Some guys are just drafted as org players to help out the other draftees and round out a rookie-league team. I really don't think Listi is anything more than that and am a tad startled by AF's amount of interest in him.

[Austinfan]

I'm just intruiged by his big senior year jump, otherwise his college career would suggest organizational fodder.
Like I said, it's probably just an overage fluke, but one never knows. Siometimes the light goes on.
And they have been playing him in the OF a little.