Minor League Games - Monday, August 7, 2017

bigegypt0417 2017-08-07 20:33:48 UTC #25

I think my only hesitation to judge this harshly is that this isn't a common practice for this team. They don't normally shift players around so maybe there is a belief LF is his future?

Austinfan 2017-08-07 20:36:10 UTC #26

They're trying to give Joseph every chance to boost his value, he was over .800 OPS since April, but has recently slipped.
Yes, he's getting to the point where you have to wonder if he can improve as a hitter, but missing those three years of minor league play, he deserved a fair shot. He's a very young "26."
I suspect they may try Hoskins in LF in AAA, if he doesn't embarass himself, bring him up, but Joseph is on a short leash, if he doesn't step it up in August, look for him to be benched.

The frustrating thing about Joseph if he could develop some pitch recognition, he could be an elite hitter even at 1B, he has a short stroke and tremendous power, but just can't resist chasing balls out of the K-zone. What makes it worse is he's a below average fielder who shows little sign of improvement.

Joseph is exhibit A why Klentak emphasizes plate disciplne when looking at prospects, it's just really hard to change players' habits once they get in pro ball, it's much easier to start with hitters who are amenable to coaching and have shown the ability to recognize a breaking ball (even if you struggle to hit off speed stuff, just laying off low curves and sliders can make a huge difference). I wonder if that was explained to Sal, because it seems recently that they're signing more LA hitters who aren't free swingers.

bkox 2017-08-07 20:36:24 UTC #27

both these articles list Hoskins at an OF:

julio 2017-08-07 20:36:49 UTC #28

The 2013 data from the Cape Cod League may be in error - but it suggests that Hoskins played right field that summer.

http://pointstreak.com/baseball/team_stats.html?teamid=3435&seasonid=21954&view=fielding&position=RF

Three outfield assists, four errors, in 137.2 innings.

California_Dreamin 2017-08-07 20:41:59 UTC #29

And the offense continues to be underwhelming on the pharm, Reading loses 6-2 and GCL Phils fall 3-2.

One more thing worth noting..this Hoskins announcement comes one day after Peter Mac says he much prefers Williams as a LFer over RF because he feels he plays better there. Still seems to me there often is a disconnect between what the manager says and what management decides. Please understand I am not blaming Peter Mac here, this seems to be an organizational failure.

Being a Phillie phan is like being on a perpetual roller coaster ride. Every time I get some promising Phillie news, and the announcement that BA rated the Phillie minor league system at #3 was great news, they seem to follow up with equaling distressing news.

Look, I am not necessarily forlorn about the Hoskins LF experiment, merely the timing of seeming lack of thought into it that bothers me. Remember I was advocating during the July trading period that the Phils should say that they would welcome keeping Joseph and playing Hoskins in LF if they couldn't get a good offer for TJ as a way to potentially build up his trade value. Instead they said, "no, no, we have to move TJ so Hoskins can come up and play 1st base."

NOW, after the deadline they decide to try Hoskins in LF. I agree with julio, this seems to be like a decision that was not well thought out and given the Phils luck, is unlikely to come to a positive conclusion.

julio 2017-08-07 20:46:23 UTC #30

From yesterday:

zambonir 2017-08-07 20:53:55 UTC #31

Joseph isn't quite Howard, given his age and salary, though I think Atown is basically correct that his value in 10 weeks isn't going to be higher than his value now. What will change is the market, when all 29 teams are making moves.

I guess none of the scenarios bother me one way or another. Bench Joseph, don't bench Joseph, try Hoskins in the OF, leave Hoskins in AAA for the playoffs, no matter what we're only talking 3-4 weeks.

California_Dreamin 2017-08-07 20:58:01 UTC #32

No, I don'yt buy this, I saw it yesterday and these charts are skewed and here is how. Each of the Phils affiliate teams did have the occasional breakout day, I recall Reading had a game where I believe they scored 18 runs.

But on a daily basis the offense has faltered and it has been at an alarming pace and I am not the only guy on this site who has commented on it. Say a team has a daily scoring total for the week of...1, 1, 2, 10, 1, 2 and 7 runs per day, it averages to about 3.5 runs per game, not great but not terrible. But the reality is different, on five of those games the offense was substandard and the likely record for the week [unless the team got extraordinary pitching] was likely 2-5.

The run dearth on a daily basis has been quite noticeable in both July and up to now, August, and frankly I am seeing little that leads me to believe it is changing. The system, organization wide, is struggling to score runs and is also striking out at an alarming pace. I try and read the inning by inning details when I can and I have noticed a huge inability to score runners from 3rd base with less than two outs.

Look, I still can lull myself to sleep every night by reminding myself that the Phils have the 3rd best system in baseball but I still maintain that July/August have not been positive months offensively and it has not been getting better....but worse.

Austinfan 2017-08-07 21:00:52 UTC #33

The Phillies did the right thing, everyone in baseball knows Hoskins is going to be the Phillies 1B next year, playing him in LF for a few weeks won't change that.
Joseph did hit better after April, if he had continued that into August, he'd be approach .800 OPS for the year, instead his recent slump has pushed him back.
But nothing from nothing is still nothing, i.e., he didn't have great value and still doesn't have much value, but it was a gamble worth taking.

On the other hand, trading Rupp doesn't make sense untl Alfaro shows he can hit, given his awful AAA showing, a couple hits in a cameo doesn't convince me.
I think Alfaro is headed to winter ball, and they'll watch him carefully and see if he can improve his discipline and hitting breaking balls.
Meanwhile Rupp is over his slump and looking like a legitimate starting C.
Knapp is a solid backup because of his versitility, but I'm not sure he's good enough defensively to start on a regular basis. I'd like to see him in the OF when he returns to improve his value as a bench player.

Interesting OF next year in AAA, depending on 40 man roster decisions, Tromp, Tocci, Pullin, Quinn and Cozens.
I think Perkins will be the 4th OF, and Stassi the 5th (don't see Nava resigning, given he'll have offers and no room at the inn here, they'll try to make a waiver deal).

zambonir 2017-08-07 21:17:13 UTC #34

We're about to leave the topic of "minor league games" and then some but I don't believe either of those guys will be on the Phillies next year. Maybe Quinn, maybe a free agent as 4th or 5th OF. I don't even think the Altherr-Herrera-Williams starting OF is guaranteed.

julio 2017-08-07 21:22:09 UTC #35

So... what are you looking for, in the way of evidence? Shall I calculate the standard deviation of scoring, by club by month, and compare that to... well, to what? You want me to calculate the standard deviation of all team scoring, by league, and compare each of our affiliates to their league? Bloody lot of work, but it could be done. But I'm not going to do the work (and I know you're not going to do it) if you're going to dismiss the results, and just assert that you still believe what you want to believe, if the results don't confirm your belief about what's going on.

Austinfan 2017-08-07 21:26:44 UTC #36

There's a few underachievers, but that's normal every year.
Cozens has shown my concerns last year were warranted, he may never get out of AAA if he doesn't learn how to hit the curve.
Quinn can't stay healthy, Walding gets injured (and Williams gets promoted - and that kills both top MILB teams)
Alfaro has been pretty bad
Crawford seems to have turned it around.
Martin is putrid in Reading, not sure why he's starting, much less batting 4th (guess they don't want to give up on a 4th rd pick).
Pujols couldn't hit last year, and can't hit this year.
Moniak is not looking like a #1 pick, but he's 19 at Lakewood, if he hits like this at 21 in Reading, then I'll start to worry.

But other than that, mostly pleasant surprises
Mora showing better discipline and having a solid year at Reading
Tocci has finally arrived
Tromp is unexpected, and even Sandberg is starting to hit.
Ortiz and PIckett showing promise.
Alastre coming out of nowhere.

julio 2017-08-07 21:47:14 UTC #37

I asked Housenick about this, and the Cape Cod League page that says Rhys played RF. His reply was that he wasn't sure - it's been some time since they had this conversation.

It will be interesting. That there's some history suggests it might not be a disaster - but that it was abandoned in college suggests it wasn't such a great idea, either.

it looks like the worst of the weather is moving out to the east, so maybe they'll get the AAA game in tonight. Should be worth a listen.

allentown 2017-08-07 21:49:32 UTC #38

Remember the caveat in Julio's post: August is only about half a dozen games per team, so very SSS compared to the other months. The July lines are steeply downward and that IS a full month. Low scoring games earlier in the season at the upper levels may have been masked in our memories by better pitching than we've had of late. One fact is beyond contention: both Allentown and Reading played the first two months of the season as among the very hottest teams in baseball, from a W-L perspective. Both teams have faded as injuries/trades at the MLB level have forced promotions and merit has forced others. The Reading lineup is weak. Reading without Kingery just isn't the same and even Walding and Numata now being out hurts further.

allentown 2017-08-07 21:53:11 UTC #39

You can tell we don't have a British filter. Bloody passes muster, but words you can hear in church every other week, like damn and hell get busted. Without damnation and hell fire, where would the evangelical preachers be?

allentown 2017-08-07 21:53:54 UTC #40

Wow! They get through now. I hadn't noticed that before. So good old Phillies post-Golden Age purgatory must also work. I suppose it would be perverse to go through a whole list of soft-core and hard-core banned words to see which ones get chucked.

andyb 2017-08-07 22:13:21 UTC #41

I remember distinctly one of the draft review articles that year talking about Hoskins as more likely to be an OF than a 1B. That writer was probably wrong but I bet it was someone who saw him in the Cape Cod league that summer.

Agree that the fact that the Phillies have never tried it (even in instructional league it appears) means they never really thought he would be good at it. I DO think the new post-Amaro regime is much more aware of advanced defensive stats and they got the concept that even if Ruf had an 800 OPS in the outfield he was likely not better than a good defensive 700 OPS guy. So they never seriously tried with Hoskins. Stassi was always a little more credible out there because he at least played it a bit and did have a pitcher's arm.

Edit - this fangraphs 2014 system evaluation does refer to him as a RF. Not sure it means much.

julio 2017-08-07 22:22:06 UTC #42

Here's a link to a writeup (credited to phuturephillies, probably originally from mlb.com, given the format) on Hoskins from the time of the 2014 draft. I found this in our 2014 draft picks thread (archives are useful things!):

https://www.philliesphans.com/t/the-2014-philadelphia-phillies-draft-picks-signings/41685/78

I would think the recurring references to a "right field profile" probably DO tell us one thing - they strongly imply an adequate outfield arm. The rest of the package? Don't know yet.

Let me just add that, while I'm skeptical, and somewhat annoyed that the Phillies don't already know whether Hoskins can handle this or not... the information we're finding does suggest that this might not be as bad an idea as my first reaction. We'll see.

And to the point about the Phils not already knowing: If Hoskins can play a respectable LF, or RF, then it would have helped more than a little bit to have known that three months ago - because if he's an OK outfielder, he should have been promoted some time ago. I'd hate to think the Phillies are trying this now because somebody in South Philly just now realized that Hoskins had this Cape Cod experience, and scouting evaluations, back in 2014.

allentown 2017-08-07 22:28:32 UTC #43

With all of the OFs in the system, the injuries make now the time to try this experiment.

zambonir 2017-08-07 22:32:13 UTC #44

But this isn't really true because they didn't have playing time, and it was reasonable to keep him in AAA for a full-half-season. Even Williams only got called up because of injury. And they weren't going to call Hoskins up as a bench player (unlike Perkins and Stassi).