The thing is, you don't know how the "market" for allocation dollars is going.
There should be opportunities for some strategic trading for allocation dollars - if you believe that the supply will ultimately exceed the demand, then you don't want to be the first buyer in the market. If, on the other hand, you believe that demand will outstrip supply, then perhaps you do want to go in early, aggressively.
Just a guess, but my instinct is that, given the limited number of kids who are worth large bonuses, and the exclusion from that market of several teams that are under penalty, this is going to develop as an excess supply market. After the first few trades for allocation, the trade value of remaining surplus allocation dollars should diminish. Teams that have an urgent need for large allocation increases (to meet commitments to highly-ranked kids) will have paid what they have to pay; after that happens, remaining surpluses that are held by various clubs should yield diminishing returns in trades - as the "motivated buyers" will be largely satisfied. So the Phils' return on these low-level trades could be more than we might think. Thoughts?