GDT 9/5/25 Philadelphia Phillies (Sánchez, C) @ Miami Marlins (Bellozo)

[kikutaro]

Joey Wiemer

Pitching Change: Tim Mayza replaces Tanner Banks.
Called strike (92.9 mph sinker)
In play, out(s) (94.6 mph sinker)

Joey Wiemer lines out to right fielder Max Kepler.

[kikutaro]

Maximo Acosta

Called strike (92.3 mph sinker)
Ball (94.5 mph sinker)
Called strike (93.7 mph sinker)
Batter Timeout.
Ball (88.4 mph cutter)
Foul (95.2 mph sinker)
Ball (88.9 mph slider)
In play, out(s) (86.8 mph slider)

Maximo Acosta grounds out, third baseman Alec Bohm to first baseman Weston Wilson.

[kikutaro]

Victor Mesa Jr.

Called strike (93.6 mph sinker)
Batter Timeout.
Foul (93.5 mph sinker)
In play, out(s) (89.2 mph slider)

Victor Mesa Jr. flies out to left fielder Brandon Marsh.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Philadelphia Phillies	1	1	0	3	0	0	4	0	0	9	16	0
Miami Marlins	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	8	0

Final

---

Philadelphia Phillies

Hitters	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trea Turner SS	5	1	4	0	0	0	0	.305	.357	.455	.812
Edmundo Sosa SS	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.269	.305	.425	.730
Kyle Schwarber DH	5	0	2	0	0	2	0	.243	.366	.568	.934
Bryce Harper 1B	5	0	1	1	0	1	0	.265	.356	.492	.848
Weston Wilson 1B	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.219	.305	.411	.716
J.T. Realmuto C	3	1	1	0	1	0	0	.266	.324	.400	.724
Rafael Marchán C	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.184	.276	.253	.529
Brandon Marsh LF	4	2	1	2	1	1	1	.272	.336	.418	.754
Harrison Bader CF	4	2	1	1	1	3	1	.270	.348	.455	.803
Max Kepler RF	5	2	2	2	0	0	1	.216	.302	.386	.688
Alec Bohm 3B	5	0	2	0	0	1	0	.277	.323	.391	.714
Bryson Stott 2B	4	1	2	3	1	0	1	.251	.324	.378	.702
Cristopher Sánchez P								.000	.000	.000	.000
Tanner Banks P								.000	.000	.000	.000
Tim Mayza P								.000	.000	.000	.000

Miami Marlins

Hitters	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Otto Lopez SS	3	0	1	0	0	1	0	.246	.314	.363	.677
Jack Winkler 2B	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	.231	.231	.308	.539
Agustín Ramírez C	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	.228	.285	.418	.703
Brian Navarreto C	1	1	1	2	0	0	1	1.000	1.000	4.000	5.000
Jakob Marsee CF	4	0	0	0	0	1	0	.322	.399	.562	.961
Heriberto Hernández DH	3	0	0	0	1	2	0	.265	.330	.423	.753
Eric Wagaman 1B	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	.237	.288	.371	.659
Joey Wiemer RF	4	0	1	0	0	1	0	.258	.273	.387	.660
Maximo Acosta SS	4	0	1	0	0	1	0	.179	.233	.500	.733
Victor Mesa Jr. LF	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	.200	.333	.200	.533
Javier Sanoja 3B	3	0	1	1	0	0	0	.239	.280	.384	.664
Valente Bellozo P								.000	.000	.000	.000
Lake Bachar P								.000	.000	.000	.000
Josh Simpson P								.000	.000	.000	.000
George Soriano P								.000	.000	.000	.000
Seth Martinez P								.000	.000	.000	.000
Michael Petersen P								.000	.000	.000	.000

Philadelphia Phillies

Pitchers	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	P-K	ERA
Cristopher Sánchez (W, 12-5)	7.0	6	1	1	1	5	0	82-57	2.60
Tanner Banks	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	1	15-10	3.23
Tim Mayza	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12-9	2.38

Miami Marlins

Pitchers	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	P-K	ERA
Valente Bellozo (L, 1-4)	3.0	4	2	2	0	2	1	48-32	3.99
Lake Bachar	1.0	3	3	3	0	0	2	25-18	3.96
Josh Simpson	2.0	4	0	0	2	3	0	46-29	8.14
George Soriano	1.0	3	4	4	2	1	1	38-20	9.72
Seth Martinez	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	13-10	2.08
Michael Petersen	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	16-13	2.70

[EastFallowfield]

Had 'em all the way, Harry!

[zambonir]

Yes Bader will not be exercising his end of the option. Players never do. I am more likely to be paid $7 million (the actual value it would be) to play for the Phillies next year.

[allentown]

I think that is his role if we are to field our strongest overall lineup. He doesn't have a platoon split this season, basically .700 against either arm. He is only ..562 OPS since the All-Star game. For the year he is .699 OPS and 89 OPS+. For a bad defensive RF, that isn't helping the team at all, as his -0.9 rWAR measures. He should be a situational PH, perhaps start one game per week, and give other OFs a break as injury or fatigue dictate. He may not be a guy we want on the post-season roster. I know he has his supporters, but his stats tell a story.

[zambonir]

He might be done, or he might still be entirely capable of putting up a 1.000 OPS for one week of the playoffs, or at least get one big HR, as he has in the past. Ironically what this season resembles most is his 2022 and he never lost his job then. But it's pretty ugly for sure: only three RBIs in all of August and September. I'm glad the scales have fallen from Thomson's eyes and it force them to be more proactive about next year's roster. Right now you really could be playing Rojas over him. Fortunately Kepler is hitting, and it is an effective platoon. Nick was 2-4 his last start and 0-2 with two walks and two runs in the one before that. No reason to change anything.

[EDmuch]

So see if you can get Bader for 2 years at $12 million per. Even with Crawford and Marsh we are still going to need one more outfielder for the next two years..

[EDmuch]

Yes, I am assuming they move on from Casty during the off-season.

[RolenRules]

That would probably be fair for both sides. As Z notes Bader will be 32 next year (birthdate 6/3/94) so we might be buying his declining years. But there might not be many other options.

[zambonir]

I would certainly take a shot. It's the Kepler money, to start, but they probably aren't going to be able to offload a dime of Nick's deal at this rate. And he might well get more like $14-15 million and 3-4 years. Don't forget Rojas still exists too, and none of these OFs are traditional sluggers. Great defense only goes so far. If Bohm is back too, this line-up is still missing a true fourth offensive power bat. Bader is merely providing what Nick and JT haven't been able to, for the moment.

It's also nice to be exuberant about the way the team has played since the Mets series. Let's see in October.

What's sad/funny is we started the year with a GG caliber LF in CF and a GG caliber RF in LF. Fixing that has also made a difference.

And while Nick is older, plenty if not most of us were ready to bench or trade Marsh and DFA or trade Kepler at multiple points this season. Being patient, as is always the case with the winningest manager in Phillies history, seems to be the right approach during the regular season.

[andyb]

Good news would be Bader looking at only a 2-3 year deal (and he is a late bloomer at least on the hitting side)).

Now of course there is an argument to just give Crawford (maybe with a platoon partner in Rojas) the job. It would be really nice to see improved reports on Crawford's defense. If he is a better CF than Marsh (which only requires being good and not great) then giving him the job and letting him grow into his power and defense might be the best long term solution.

If Schwarber leaves we probably need to add 2 OFs though (assuming Casty goes to DH or a platoon also).

[zambonir]

I just can't see them letting Schwarber go unless the Reds make him a serious offer. Phillies just won't be outbid.

Of course, a lot depends on how October goes too. I mean, it shouldn't, really, but the front office is not unresponsive to vibes.

[andyb]

Selfishly I want Schwarber to stay also. I just fear the price will be $125 million plus. It is a big number fraught with danger.

We can't get rid of Casty without picking up most of his salary and paying for a replacement (Crawford will replace Kepler but that only saves $9 million). And I think a midlevel starter might be a priority with Wheeler and Painter uncertainty. Keeping Schwarber would be a whole lot easier if we could pencil Painter and Crawford into the rotation and lineup respectively and expect good performances. At the moment it is just hard to do so.

[BostonRoss]

I think there is zero chance that Castellanos is left off the postseason roster unless there’s an injury. I believe that his reduced playing time now is due to Bader’s presence; he would never have lost much playing time to Wilson, Kemp, or Rojas.

[andyb]

I think there is almost no chance Nick is left off the roster. If anything the roster might have an extra hitter on it and we are not carrying 3 catchers. Extra off day in the NLDS means we only need 3 starters until the LCS round so that likely means 12 pitchers and 14 hitters. Rojas would be the easy addition with defense and pinch running potential. Kemp is possible also, but again they are not going to leave Nick off the roster for Kemp.

As for catcher, I am curious to see if Stubbs or Marchan starts Sunday. Are they debating who is the backup? Stubbs went to AAA because of the option so we could keep both catchers. Now we actually need to pick the better backup.

[zambonir]

If they did re-sign Bader they can afford to unload Casty position-wise, even though they'll have to pay a lot of his salary and not get much. But I think there's a lower-budget team that could still use him. Moving him to DH or even LF part-time makes him a better piece. Perhaps playing a little less will also help. And then his new team can flip him at the deadline if they're not a contender.

For sure the Schwarber deal will give one pause, but is there another option to replace him that wouldn't? Tucker (worth it maybe but way more money/years), Alonso (likely not leaving), Bellinger, ???. It would be nice to not have a locked DH but as we've seen firsthand there aren't many traditional corner OFs out there either.

And of course Casty is going to be on the playoff roster. Starting against LHPs too.

[zambonir]

I think Marchan is probably the guy on the playoff roster. He won't see any more action than Stubbs ever did. But Stubbs will stay with the team (rather than in Clearwater) to participate in the game plan meetings. This call-up was both a reward and a perfectly good strategic call (allows JT to PH in a game he doesn't start; Stubbs can also PR and even PH or play the field in an extremly narrow scenario).

[allentown]

And while Nick is older, plenty if not most of us were ready to bench or trade Marsh and DFA or trade Kepler at multiple points this season. Being patient, as is always the case with the winningest manager in Phillies history, seems to be the right approach during the regular season.

I agree with your comment on Kepler being strongly out of favor with many. I felt that way at times. Wrong on Marsh.

There is a huge difference between the wisdom of patience with Marsh and Casty, and that is their widely different level of success in Philly over multiple seasons. Casty now has 3-3/4 years of playing in Philly and has received preferential treatment when he stunk but played every day. Because of that, he has a huge # of ABs as a Phillie. His record is clear: in 2424 PA -- statistically significant in anybody's book -- and put up an overal OPS+ of only 101. Not acceptable for a bad defense RF in anybody's book. His total rWAR in Philly is only +1.2 -- still a +0.3 yearly average, above replacement level -- only this season his rWAR has fallen to -0.9 -- well below replacement level. He is extremely streaky, and does have good periods with the bat, but his good periods simply don't make up for the slumps this season. At age 33, Casty shows every sign of having aged out. It's not just this season's stats. His whole 4 years in Philly have been far below his good performance prior to coming here. The Phillies are unlikely to save any significant $ on his salary and it would be beyond foolish to give him substantial playing time in the hope of increasing his trade value.

Marsh is entirely different. His rWAR in Philly is 8.3, including, including +1.0 this season, justifying more patience than he has received. In 1450 PA he has averaged an OPS+ of 113. He is a significantly better hitter than Casty and a vastly better defensive corner OF. He still can't hit LHP well, so a platoon isn't a bad approach to using him. The problem is he has gotten less than his rightful AB against RHP.

Kepler is slightly negative rWAR on the season, with OPS+ of only 87 and negative -0.7 dWAR. He hits just sort-of OK against RHP and poorly against LHP. Questioning his playing time was valid, but the Phils didn't have a better choice. He has been just OK since All-Star break after a poor start to season. I guess patience was justified.

[VoteForKalas]

Plus Casty is 33 and Marsh is 27