GDT 9/5/25 Philadelphia Phillies (Sánchez, C) @ Miami Marlins (Bellozo)

[EDmuch]

Yes, I am assuming they move on from Casty during the off-season.

[RolenRules]

That would probably be fair for both sides. As Z notes Bader will be 32 next year (birthdate 6/3/94) so we might be buying his declining years. But there might not be many other options.

[zambonir]

I would certainly take a shot. It's the Kepler money, to start, but they probably aren't going to be able to offload a dime of Nick's deal at this rate. And he might well get more like $14-15 million and 3-4 years. Don't forget Rojas still exists too, and none of these OFs are traditional sluggers. Great defense only goes so far. If Bohm is back too, this line-up is still missing a true fourth offensive power bat. Bader is merely providing what Nick and JT haven't been able to, for the moment.

It's also nice to be exuberant about the way the team has played since the Mets series. Let's see in October.

What's sad/funny is we started the year with a GG caliber LF in CF and a GG caliber RF in LF. Fixing that has also made a difference.

And while Nick is older, plenty if not most of us were ready to bench or trade Marsh and DFA or trade Kepler at multiple points this season. Being patient, as is always the case with the winningest manager in Phillies history, seems to be the right approach during the regular season.

[andyb]

Good news would be Bader looking at only a 2-3 year deal (and he is a late bloomer at least on the hitting side)).

Now of course there is an argument to just give Crawford (maybe with a platoon partner in Rojas) the job. It would be really nice to see improved reports on Crawford's defense. If he is a better CF than Marsh (which only requires being good and not great) then giving him the job and letting him grow into his power and defense might be the best long term solution.

If Schwarber leaves we probably need to add 2 OFs though (assuming Casty goes to DH or a platoon also).

[zambonir]

I just can't see them letting Schwarber go unless the Reds make him a serious offer. Phillies just won't be outbid.

Of course, a lot depends on how October goes too. I mean, it shouldn't, really, but the front office is not unresponsive to vibes.

[andyb]

Selfishly I want Schwarber to stay also. I just fear the price will be $125 million plus. It is a big number fraught with danger.

We can't get rid of Casty without picking up most of his salary and paying for a replacement (Crawford will replace Kepler but that only saves $9 million). And I think a midlevel starter might be a priority with Wheeler and Painter uncertainty. Keeping Schwarber would be a whole lot easier if we could pencil Painter and Crawford into the rotation and lineup respectively and expect good performances. At the moment it is just hard to do so.

[BostonRoss]

I think there is zero chance that Castellanos is left off the postseason roster unless there’s an injury. I believe that his reduced playing time now is due to Bader’s presence; he would never have lost much playing time to Wilson, Kemp, or Rojas.

[andyb]

I think there is almost no chance Nick is left off the roster. If anything the roster might have an extra hitter on it and we are not carrying 3 catchers. Extra off day in the NLDS means we only need 3 starters until the LCS round so that likely means 12 pitchers and 14 hitters. Rojas would be the easy addition with defense and pinch running potential. Kemp is possible also, but again they are not going to leave Nick off the roster for Kemp.

As for catcher, I am curious to see if Stubbs or Marchan starts Sunday. Are they debating who is the backup? Stubbs went to AAA because of the option so we could keep both catchers. Now we actually need to pick the better backup.

[zambonir]

If they did re-sign Bader they can afford to unload Casty position-wise, even though they'll have to pay a lot of his salary and not get much. But I think there's a lower-budget team that could still use him. Moving him to DH or even LF part-time makes him a better piece. Perhaps playing a little less will also help. And then his new team can flip him at the deadline if they're not a contender.

For sure the Schwarber deal will give one pause, but is there another option to replace him that wouldn't? Tucker (worth it maybe but way more money/years), Alonso (likely not leaving), Bellinger, ???. It would be nice to not have a locked DH but as we've seen firsthand there aren't many traditional corner OFs out there either.

And of course Casty is going to be on the playoff roster. Starting against LHPs too.

[zambonir]

I think Marchan is probably the guy on the playoff roster. He won't see any more action than Stubbs ever did. But Stubbs will stay with the team (rather than in Clearwater) to participate in the game plan meetings. This call-up was both a reward and a perfectly good strategic call (allows JT to PH in a game he doesn't start; Stubbs can also PR and even PH or play the field in an extremly narrow scenario).

[allentown]

And while Nick is older, plenty if not most of us were ready to bench or trade Marsh and DFA or trade Kepler at multiple points this season. Being patient, as is always the case with the winningest manager in Phillies history, seems to be the right approach during the regular season.

I agree with your comment on Kepler being strongly out of favor with many. I felt that way at times. Wrong on Marsh.

There is a huge difference between the wisdom of patience with Marsh and Casty, and that is their widely different level of success in Philly over multiple seasons. Casty now has 3-3/4 years of playing in Philly and has received preferential treatment when he stunk but played every day. Because of that, he has a huge # of ABs as a Phillie. His record is clear: in 2424 PA -- statistically significant in anybody's book -- and put up an overal OPS+ of only 101. Not acceptable for a bad defense RF in anybody's book. His total rWAR in Philly is only +1.2 -- still a +0.3 yearly average, above replacement level -- only this season his rWAR has fallen to -0.9 -- well below replacement level. He is extremely streaky, and does have good periods with the bat, but his good periods simply don't make up for the slumps this season. At age 33, Casty shows every sign of having aged out. It's not just this season's stats. His whole 4 years in Philly have been far below his good performance prior to coming here. The Phillies are unlikely to save any significant $ on his salary and it would be beyond foolish to give him substantial playing time in the hope of increasing his trade value.

Marsh is entirely different. His rWAR in Philly is 8.3, including, including +1.0 this season, justifying more patience than he has received. In 1450 PA he has averaged an OPS+ of 113. He is a significantly better hitter than Casty and a vastly better defensive corner OF. He still can't hit LHP well, so a platoon isn't a bad approach to using him. The problem is he has gotten less than his rightful AB against RHP.

Kepler is slightly negative rWAR on the season, with OPS+ of only 87 and negative -0.7 dWAR. He hits just sort-of OK against RHP and poorly against LHP. Questioning his playing time was valid, but the Phils didn't have a better choice. He has been just OK since All-Star break after a poor start to season. I guess patience was justified.

[VoteForKalas]

Plus Casty is 33 and Marsh is 27

[zambonir]

You were always all-in on Marsh. So was I. But not everyone was (nor have they ever been, even when he's been perfectly good).

Regardless, it appears Thomson and DD have handled it all masterfully. They didn't DFA Kepler or immediately bench Kepler or Nick, the two guys who both squawked about their playing time, on August 1. You might think that was coddling; I think it was good psychology, and letting everyone earn or not earn their role. Bader and Kepler answered the bell (and Marsh already had long ago); we'll see if Nick is able to (but didn't so far). He's probably going to play today or tomorrow against a RHP before facing the Mets lefties. LHP is still the key to shutting down the Phillies in October; we'll need him at some point.

And people are just weird about platoons for some reason. The Comcast talking heads were, by way of praising the current arrangement, complaining about how much they don't like not having "full-time" players. Of course you'd rather have them than not but managers who insist on playing guys like Casty (or, for much of his career, Bohm) as if they don't have a platoon split is an even bigger problem IMO.

It's true Marsh hasn't gotten enough reps to get better over his entire Phillies career, but platooning both him and Stott has been great for this team this year. And now the combination of Kepler being a decent bat and his defense plus Nick's struggles makes putting Nick in the weak side of one a no-brainer too. We are lucky to have three really good RHB platoon hitters now, even if Nick still needs to show something. Many teams don't platoon simply because the bench guys aren't good enough, even from their strong side. That was Kepler this year for a while.

9th inning of the NLCS, man on second in a 2-1 game, Tanner Scott on the mound for the Dodgers, Kepler coming up. Do you put in Wilson or Casty? Sosa?

[Philsmania]

See September of 1983. Paul Owens started platooning guys all over the outfield. Gross and Sarge in left, Hayes and Maddox in center, Lefebvre and Lezcano in right. Sarge notably wasn't happy about.it and, coincidence or not, he wasn't a Phillie anymore in 1984. Maddox probably wasn't either but he handled it more gracefully and finished his career with the Phillies as an extra outfielder. Rose was largely reduced to a part-time player from mid-September onward due to Matuszek's hot bat and he was clearly unhappy about that and allowed to walk away as a free agent after the season.

Also, three platoons in 1993--Thompson and Incaviglia in left, Eisenreich and Chamberlin in right and Morandini and Duncan at second. One difference there is that the outfielders all signed up for that and Morandini was a relative young guy who didn't have the stature to complain.

[zambonir]

Yeah that's why I think it's weird. We've seen it plenty! But it still feels like some fans act like it's some new-school thing. Of course the same goes for PH and changing relievers when managers go by the book.

I understand why the players struggle with it. Nick said he wanted to learn why his defense was considered poor and try to do something about it, though that is probably beyond his ability (we know he's always worked hard at it). So he should also be smart enough to know what's wrong with his bat, and why the privilege of playing through it isn't there anymore.

[EastFallowfield]

Morandini was a relative young guy who didn't have the stature to complain

It does seem that the lefty hitters have less to complain about anyway until we get just as many LHP as RHP.

Platoons seem to work a little bit better in the 'reliever must face 3 hitters' era.

[andyb]

One difference there is that the outfielders all signed up for that and Morandini was a relative young guy who didn't have the stature to complain.

The number of pitchers on the staff was very different then as well. 10 or 11 pitchers left room for an extra bench player or two with no DH.

[allentown]

The Phillies lived with Nicks bad defense for years. He chose to rebel after being replaced for late inning defense in a game when he was unlikely to get another AB. It was the height of denial and privilege. Far better hitters (think Luzinski) were frequently replaced late in games for defensive reasons. The problem with Nick goes way beyond that. His offense also is poor, with an OPS+ on the season of 87 and absolutely abysmal second half. He may be the weakest link in the lineup, but seems to somehow believe he should play every game and get every possible AB in every game he plays. It is nonsense and it took management far to long to call him on it. His presumed desire to continue his consecutive games streak was hurting the team. I'm sure this makes him sad, but it's great for the team that the manager finally had the balls to sit him for the game. Now that he is being treated appropriately, he's getting a lot fewer starts. He's our best choice against LHP. but that's it.

[andyb]

There really is not much evidence that Nick or anyone is rebelling though. What is he supposed to say when a reporter asks if wants to play every day? He has always been good in the clubhouse and there is no evidence that has changed.

He knows he needs to play better to play more often. Let's hope he does.

[zambonir]

I did not see that one incident as being any worse than any other little player/manager kerfuffle we've seen (like when Jimmy Rollins got benched back in the day). Or Kepler's even more dramatic complaint. Also not really Nick's fault he was signed to play LF/DH, and that our general manager didn't value defense in general. The main reason he kept playing is there weren't better options (including Rojas and Pache whose bats were just too weak). Now we have them. This is good!

Nick's streak had already ended before he got mad about the defensive substitution. That streak wasn't even his idea, Thomson said it as a joke to several players, but Nick ran with it (and Thomson felt he was motivated by it). He was an important player for us the last two years (our sole All-Star in '23) and the first half of this year, as well as in the playoffs. Ironically, he wasn't the year we got to the WS.

It is true, having a platoon-heavy team would call for a bigger bench. Not just in general but for a potential extra move late in a game. Like if you started Kepler and Marsh and then had Nick PH for one of them in the 7th you might like to have Rojas to go into the OF. Or another LHB if the spot in the order came up next time. But arms are the priority these days.