Very few pitchers stay at a #1 level for more than a couple years. We saw that with Lee and Halladay.
But if you look at his definition:
NUMBER ONE STARTER:
**Two plus pitches
**Average third pitch
**Plus/plus command
**Plus makeup
Nola is on his way to three plus pitches, his two seamer, his curve and his changeup
He is getting back to the great command that got him drafted in the top 10.
He certainly has the plus makeup.
He has to do it for a year or two, but like most young pitchers, he's a work in progress, just finished 2 seasons in the majors, just turned 24.
Halladay's prime seasons were 2002-2011, with a couple off years in 2004-05. He turned 25 in May of 2002.
FB 92-93, cutter 91, and curve. Rarely threw changeups (5%).
Doesn't mean Nola will be Halladay, but if you're talking about "potential," he certainly matches up well.
NUMBER TWO STARTER
**Two plus pitches
**Average third pitch
**Average command
**Average makeup
These are the good but not great starters, 3.50 FIP guys, will have a great year or two but mostly solid seasons.
Eflin, Pivetta, Velasquez if they develop command and a second pitch.
Madison Bumgarner. 2011-2016 (22-27), 213 IP, 3.04 FIP, you could make a case for him as a #1 over this period
Zack Greinke 2008-15 (24-31), 205 IP, 3.03 FIP, you could make a case for him as a #1 over this period
Matt Cain 2006-2012 (21-27), 213 IP, 3.77 FIP, had a #1 season in 2011, sllipped to #3 in 2013 then off the cliff
Johnny Cueto was close to a #1 in 2012, hurt in 2013, and pitched at that level in 2016, but too inconsistent to be a #1.
Gio Gonzalez was definitely a #2 based on durability and inconsistency.
NUMBER THREE STARTER
**One plus pitch
**Two average pitches
**Average command
**Average makeup
Your 30-32 start, 180-190, 3.75-4.00 FIP pitcher
This was Hellickson at his best last season with both a plus changeup and curve, but he couldn't remain at this level.
Eickhoff if he develops some consistency with his changeup can be this kind of pitcher, he has a plus plus curve at his best. He was close to this level last year
Mike Pelfrey, 2008-11, 196 IP, 4.16 FIP
Jake Westbrook 2004-07, 2010-12, 193 IP, 4.07 FIP
Joe Blanton, 2005-10, 2012, 198 IP, 4.19 FIP
Brad Radke, 1995-2001, 2003-05, 217 IP 4.23 FIP
Jon Leiber 1997-2001, 2003-05, 205 IP 3.95 FIP
NUMBER FOUR/FIVE STARTER
**Command of two major league pitches
**Average velocity
**Consistent breaking ball
**Decent changeup
These are your 25-30 start, 150-180 inning, 4.0+ FIP guys
They can give you 1-2 WAR and save your bullpen.
Barry Zito, 2001-2010, 2012, 209 IP 4.38 FIP (2001-03 would have rated as a #3, after that . . .)
Ivan Nova (the anti-Zito), never threw more than 170 IP in a season, career FIP 4.24, Beaven was even worse, never stayed healthy
Luke Hochevar, 2 seasons where he started on a regular basis, career FIP 4.31
Which makes his point, a #3, a guy who can give you 180-200 IP on a regular basis with a FIP in the 3.75-4.05 range, has a lot of value (3+ WAR), a #4 who starts 30 games and gives you 180 IP with a 4.00-4.25 FIP will still have significant value (2-3 WAR)