GDT 5/18/24 Washington Nationals (Gore) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Sánchez, C)

[JaxBill]

IBB seems to be the default answer when visiting team doesn't score in top of 10th. Not sure if it's analytics driven

[andyb]

It just seems dumb and they lost the option to intentionally walk Bryce later on. Neutral analytics say walk him. Situational ones don't.

[julio]

I don’t know; the IBB puts a double play in order, and the runner on first is otherwise meaningless. If your reliever is prone to inducing ground balls, the strategy could make a lot of sense.

[phillychuck]

But the IBB with zero outs puts a lot of pressure on the pitcher to throw strikes behind in the count. I know analytics is against this strategy in general, but if your pitcher has good control and induces a lot of grounders, as Julio said, it might make sense.

Don't forget the great outing by Sanchez tonight. Looked like an ace, really spotted the changeup well.

[bkox]

Our #4 starter has the 35th best ERA in baseball among qualified starters. And somehow hes done this with a 1.45 WHIP which is 71st of 82 qualified starters.

[zambonir]

The smart but never-gonna-happen move would be to replace Merrifield with Clemens but they could also just move on from Pache (a spot that should be replaced by more of a bat in the long run anyway). I don't think the way Clemens is producing would necessarily stop them from just optioning him again for now but Thomson obviously loves having that lefty bench bat in his quiver.

[andyb]

We all knew that the bench really needed a left-handed bat for balance. They just decided Pache had more long term value than Cave which was probably the correct decision at the time. Whether that remains correct now is still a question. Pache really has not shown that he has improved (or played enough really to show us). So the question on Clemens really relates to whether they stick with Rojas or need to keep Pache as insurance.

[zambonir]

They can probably still ride this out for another six weeks (could be another three before Turner's back anyway) because the team is winning, the schedule is still reasonably soft until July 1 and this past week's evidence aside, the need for a PH or key tactical substitution is still pretty rare (and it was just the other day that someone here was arguing Clemens shouldn't be coming in for Sosa). But they also had the flawed belief that Merrifield could hit RHP (or rather, the flawed belief that he could still hit at all).

I feel like the call has already been made on Rojas. Especially since Pache wouldn't be better (he'd be adequate and a placeholder to allow Rojas to develop, but I think Rojas has shown he can develop while playing in the majors, without hurting the team when he hits bumps. No different than our 3B for three years). But no question he has struggled, it would not be the end of the world if they gave him a pause (which also happened to Bohm and Stott).

[phillychuck]

I think the option when Turner returns is clearly to give Rojas some time at Lehigh Valley. His offense isn't really improving in terms of barrel percentage or exit velocity, and his selectivity comes and goes. Leading off at LV for a month might give him enough ABs on a regular basis to get better. And might give him a chance to break in his glove...

[Austinfan]

Sanchez is slowly rounding into form, had some bad luck with GBs finding holes, but pitched out of trouble.

Was hitting 97 after 100 pitches, mostly in the 94 range. Still needs more movement, but a LH throwing that hard has some upside. Would like to see him develop some tail on the 2 seamer.

But FB at the eyes, slider and changeup at the knees is a tough combo for hitters.

[phillychuck]

I've never seen Sanchez so dominant as he was in the last three innings he pitched yesterday. He has all the "stuff" he needs if he pitches like that.

[BostonRoss]

One issue to consider with Clemens is how little he would play when Turner returns (unless there's an injury to one of the infielders, or Schwarber). He's appeared in 9 games since his recall, two of them starts (one for Bohm, one for Sosa). Two appearances were in the late innings of blowout wins. In the other five, he pinch-hit for Sosa, a guy who won't be around to pinch-hit for very often once Turner returns.

If they keep him, Clemens is going to have to play the OF some to get much playing time. The Phillies haven't used him there yet this season (he played one game in RF last year), but Clemens has played a few games in the OF for the IronPigs this year and last. He played nine games in LF for the Tigers in 2022. He's probably worse defensively than the other Phillies outfielders except Castellanos, though. (I wouldn't mind seeing him get a few starts in RF.).

[zambonir]

Yeah, they would have to be committed to having him PH for Merrifield, Rojas or even Nick (in addition to just playing OF as you note, which he should/would if Pache was gone). He's probably not any worse defensively in the OF than Merrifield at this point (youth over experience).

Of course this is all still just a hot streak and small sample but it would be exciting if he is able to embrace and prepare for the PH role, which is always a difficult one.

[andyb]

Do we care if Clemens doesn't play much though? He is old enough that he is probably fully developed. Like Jake Cave he is what he is. Pache is young enough to get better. Clemens probably isn't.

We pinch hit rarely but when we do it is often for right-handed batters (Sosa, Pache, Rojas). That is why a left-handed bat is needed. The only left-handed batter we pinch hit for is usually Stubbs and JT will just hit for him as needed late in games. We really don't hit for the secondary lefties in the lineup (Stott and Marsh).

[zambonir]

Well he certainly shouldn't play as much as Jake Cave did (which was also only due to injuries) but you should give him 1 or 2 starts a week to keep him sharp and those starts probably can't be at 2B (let alone SS) and 3B would be infrequent too.

I think he's also still young enough to not be a finished product. The only question in is what sort of product - a career fringe major leaguer like Phil Gosselin or a more stalwart bench fixture. It seems Sosa is still not a finished product either. I can't imagine the Phillies see a future role for Pache, it's just been the Rojas insurance and hopefully getting a better return for him than they would have in a start-of-season DFA trade (which is how they got him in the first place of course).

[andyb]

Sosa and Clemens are finished products though. They don't have those 600 AB major league seasons because they have been deemed not good enough to merit them on a decent injury-free team. Scouts and managers know what they are by now and their limitations. Same with Cave who was just a bit farther into his age-based decline years.

[BostonRoss]

I guess there's not much difference between a Pache who seldom plays and a Clemens (or anyone else) who seldom plays.
I'm not arguing against keeping Clemens. Just noting that we won't see as much value from him as he's provided recently when there's a full healthy contingent of infielders. Sosa has also made the case for more playing time.

Ideally, as I think you've said before, we would have a LH hitting OF on the bench instead of Pache. I think the Phillies have made the right decision that Cave wasn't that person (nor is Dahl or Muzziotti right now). If Clemens can play an OK outfield, then he is the guy. It's hard to know since everywhere he's played he has been mostly in the infield. But is that because he was seen as a liability in the OF, or his teams simply needed him more in the infield? Undoubtedly he is worse defensively than Pache, but I don't know whether he is better than Merrifield (he can't be much worse than Castellanos, though...).

[andyb]

I guess there's not much difference between a Pache who seldom plays and a Clemens (or anyone else) who seldom plays.

The development difference is age. Pache is 25 and Clemens is 28. So it is worse to sit Pache developmentally because he is still young enough where improvement is possible.

If everyone is healthy in October we probably keep Clemens and only one of Pache or Sosa unless the manager anticipates pinch running a lot. And other than for Schwarber we don't do that too much.

[BostonRoss]

I meant there is little difference in terms of the team’s performance which guy is at the end of the bench.

Since the Phillies can’t send Pache down, they don’t seem to have a way to develop him anyway.

[zambonir]

Clemens, like so many good players, played SS and CF in high school (though not college). And like Merrifield, he's primarily a 2B. Whit was already a year older than Clemens is now when he first played more than 16 games in the OF as a major leaguer. I don't imagine Clemens is any worse defensively in the OF now than Whit was then, and probably faster and more agile than Whit is now.

And Merrifield only broke into the majors himself at 27, and only had a 91 OPS+. The opportunities he got on a cheap, terrible team at ages 28 and 29 just don't exist for Clemens (or Sosa) in Philadelphia.

And right, I don't think the Phillies are trying to develop Pache at this point. Can't imagine they want to carry him all year and hope to keep him for next year, unless they demote Rojas. They're just hedging their bets until mid-season at the latest.

With the spot this team is in this season they should rule out nothing, including DFAing (or trade-dumping) Merrifield or even trading Sosa if he helps you get something else and you're comfortable with Clemens, Merrifield and Castro (since Stott can play SS too). But that means waiting to see where everyone is in two months too.